Crude Oil Geometry ($USO)
Posted on December 29, 2014 Leave a Comment
the oil complex is in the midst of a deflationary thump BUT do believe it’s coming into a zone of support.
posted for Andy @seeitmarket http://www.seeitmarket.com/correlation-watch-crude-oil-services-loonie-13951/ and so far the $OSX and Loonie have held.
why 50-51 for a bounce in crude:
- 3 ratio’s – .786 retrace, 1.618 and 1.27 extensions
- NOTE the TIME of the oil crash from the all time high is equal to the time from the June high in Crude.
- NOTE back in 2007 oil BOUNCE after it had traveled a distance shown by the blue arrow. it rallied 20 dollars/barrel and that same move down in price is right at your ratio’s. Additionally, that “balance point” in price represented the next move into the lows.
so … watch the 50-51 as we approach this crucial level. (note: 48 and then 42 are other targets)
Bart
Natural Gas Mirror Image Foldback ($UNG)
Posted on December 29, 2014 7 Comments
so far, it’s been a very nice and symmetrical move in Natural Gas futures …
if (the big if) the mirror image is at play THEN either 1) here or 2) a little lower and we should see Natural Gas foldback up the blue arrow shown by the “we are here (?)” in the middle of the chart.
NOBODY believed me when we said BUY Silver at 8 and it could go to 48. They didn’t believe me when they should take profit either…just PATTERNS folks.
So, if this is correct, Natural Gas is getting ready to explode.
INTC on the move – updated
Posted on December 28, 2014 1 Comment
An update to $INTC is below. Gameplan is working thus far….it came back and tagged the neckline and off it went. Now, expect the low 40’s to be resistance and for another pullback to occur. BUY this pullback.
CLIFF NOTES: INTC is on the move breaking thru and CLOSING (KEY) at the high end of the range, above a 9 year resistance line and now testing the higher end of the bearish resistance zone on the RSI. The base it has moved up from has carved out an inverse head and shoulders in addition to basing for 10+ years. Watch this stock for leadership.
GAMEPLAN is, however hard it is, to let this move go and then look to buy the “outside return” against the neckline around 28. Initial targets are shown …
INTC WEEKLY
Now, we need to ask ourselves, how is the stock doing against the NASDAQ? This is where we go to our ratio analysis and look at the picture below … banged right off the .786 retracement level and perhaps this is a rotational play by the institutions. What a nice picture …
ratio analysis of INTC / NASDAQ
QCOM
Posted on December 27, 2014 Leave a Comment
QCOM appears to be in a 3rd wave advance. Expecting some resistance for a 4th wave pullback/consolidation and then a final thrust in wave 5 into the 111 area. Will update as it progresses …
JPM Voo Doo – redux
Posted on December 26, 2014 Leave a Comment
Folks, we have now closed above the PATTERN level. If we get thru 63.63 on a weekly close then this PATTERN has failed and JPM is off to the races. Again, this is a MONTHLY PATTERN. When they fail … things really take off. WATCH CLOSELY!
Folks, almost a year ago this pattern was ID’d on JPM … pretty crazy hugh? here’s the updated chart – pattern appears to be hanging in there. any daily close above, say, 63 would be a pattern failure IMHO.
again, before hitting the sack, it simply amazes me that I can sit here in my home office w/ a computer drawing lines and come up w/ a NUMBER that the market will respect. Just checked and the average daily trading volume is roughly 10MM shares a day. folks, I don’t know but that’s a lot of shares …
so, for whatever reason, way before it ever got to the NUMBER 61, a simple PATTERN RECOGNITION dude ID’d the pattern and pointed it out ….
whomever is BUYING or SELLING those 10MM+ shares/day decided to stop BUYING at/around that EXACT number …
yup, pure VOO DOO …
let me know if you want to push the I believe button ….
JPM P A T T E R N hanging in there …
one last chart .. actually presented this chart at the MTA’s annual symposium and it’s the EXACT LOW (real time) of the JPM low in 2009.
chart presented at MTA
11/19/2013
JPM sell pattern
US Steel (X) needs to hold current levels
Posted on December 24, 2014 Leave a Comment
Update: as you can see from the chart below, X did return to the breakout level (31.19) and bounced nicely. However, it has since broken down back below. I’m not that troubled by this event because it’s tracing out a very nice 3 wave corrective move that has, as of this blog post, completed. Additionally, if you look below you’ll see that the trend line it’s sitting on has to hold. If break below current levels or below 22, then the thesis that X has begun a big bull run is in doubt. IMHO – this is the best chance at current levels or down to 22 to try and potentially ride the next run higher.
US Steel – X has gone back to the neckline. Anywhere in the zone of 27-21 should begin another advance. Am wrong if we get a daily close below the red trend line.
CLIFF NOTES: believe this breakout in X is real and it “should” come back down to highlighted areas for another BUY.
X
See It Market
Posted on December 21, 2014 Leave a Comment
Folks, been given the opportunity to work with and for Andy @seeitmarket and wanted to drop a link to some of the more recent posts that I have done on that site. check this out when you have the chance …
http://www.seeitmarket.com/author/james-bartelloni/
quite frankly, the contributors at that site are some of the best in TA and it’s a plethora of seasoned and emerging financial professionals providing AMAZING content on risk management, sector rotation, intermarket analysis and single stock or ETF strategies and gameplans.
book mark it and believe it will be a valuable guidepost to navigate the coming storm in any capacity.
am going to update my EURO post this AM … .9438 retracement is key.
rock on, ok?
Bart
HD update …
Posted on December 21, 2014 Leave a Comment
Updated chart of HD posted below. Summary, as discussed in old post (#ouch) the 102-106 region now coming into play. Also, notice that Forest Griffin is smiling even though he got punched a few times. Manage risk folks, manage risk.
HD
Cliff notes: major pattern from all time low on HD got smoked at 85-87. HOWEVER, let’s take a look at what the long term is showing …it’s showing 5 waves folks so in/around here 105-110 or 130 this should represent an end of move. But for now … anyone got a “cut man” for the corner?
hey … NOTICE he’s smiling … got run over by HD but still smiling! 🙂
I see 5 waves …
