Author: BART

BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets.

BUY pattern on the NASDAQ

CLIFF NOTES: we have been in an amazing trend for the past 5 years and now we have a very nice BUY pattern appearing on the NASDAQ.  As we all know, the trend is your friend till it ends so .. if BULLISH then the 3977-3995 level should hold for another leg up. If you are BEARISH then the first sign of a continued correction is when a pattern fails .  Today (5/7) the thrust into this level is pretty strong so we’ll have to wait and see what support brings or not.  Watch this level closely.  A daily close below this level warns of a deeper correction at hand.  Strong, momentum driven buying in here says we should go up.

PATTERNS ARE GREAT BECAUSE THEY LET YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE WRONG!

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gameplan for the long bond structure …

CLIFF NOTES: if you look at the chart below, you will see an inverse head and shoulders pattern that had it’s genesis almost a year go – 07/2013.  Just recently (the past 3 trading days) we have broken from this neckline ….price on the bonds should start up.  Here’s the gameplan — expect the 137 28 level to hold as resistance.  (It’s a butterfly sell pattern) and then price should come down to the neckline and here is where we really see the battle between the bulls and bears.  All things being equal, the standard gameplan is to trade the return to the neckline and therefore go LONG in/around the 134-135 level.  However, if the rates are really going to rise, then this neckline will be defeated and  we’ll go thru the black line to the downside.  This is the gameplan …

 

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monitoring this ratio closely …

CLIFF NOTES: sector rotation is a fact of life …we’ve shown how the institutions follow a well defined script and how, usually, energy is the last shoe to drop before the inevitable correction (it’s different this time) occurs.  ratio’s are important because they show relative strength of something versus something.  In this case, we have the XLP (consumer staples) over the broader S&P 500.  The thesis – in times of volatility/risk off – there is a move to consumer staples and the consumer staples become stronger …the NUMERATOR (XLP) is stronger than the denominator (S&P 500).

CLIFF NOTES 2: the line below is the S&P 500 and at EVERY top since 2000 (labeled w/ a blue rectangle and the word “top”) the ratio bottomed.  What’s interesting is the new highs in the S&P 500 were not confirmed by lower lows in the ratio.  That’s something to monitor and watch….note, we do have a MONTHLY signal reversal candle present so, monitor this ratio closely ….

XLP / SPX is candles and line is S&P 500
XLP / SPX is candles and line is S&P 500

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Dollar Index … again. Look at this chart … U G L Y.

Cliff Note: the BUY pattern worked and then, well, it didn’t?  Some WILD SWINGS in the currency markets.  the Gorilla’s were/are definitely juggling dynamite.  One of my RULES is that I NEVER trade on non-farm payroll days.  Just sit on my hands … bet a lot of people went long $$, then short $$ then long $$$ … W O W.

Look at the “wicks” on those candles … that is some serious UP and DOWN action.  Do we really have a clue of who has control?  Well, right now the chart is red and lower – so that’s my best guess…

W O W

Guess will take a fresh look (again) this weekend …

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Dollar Update

CLIFF NOTES: the dollar has gone up – strongly —  at the BUY pattern.  While this is good, for now, as you will see below here will be the real test (IMHO).  Here is the last post on the Dollar Index: http://bartscharts.com/2014/04/30/the-dollar-index-is-at-a-very-crucial-and-critical-level-at-79-45-79-47/ I have labeled the potential count occurring if dollar bull thesis is correct.  I am impressed (hopeful ?) that all that thrust DOWN into the pattern was defeated (so to speak) but we have another SELL pattern coming in so if we can bust thru that then probability favors a dollar rise.  Stay tuned …

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TBT update …

CLIFF NOTES: have added the time component to the chart.  NOTE the blue rectangle of the last correction (08/2012-05/2013) and how that correction is exactly the same tomorrow.  Expecting 62 to hold for resumption or at least a bounce.  If not, a big sell off should occur…

last post: http://bartscharts.com/2014/04/27/tbt/

 

TBT w/ time component added
TBT w/ time component added

the dollar index is at a very crucial and critical level at 79.45-79.47

CLIFF NOTES: I have been a dollar bull for almost a year now and while price has made higher highs on the longer term time frame, it sure looks sick on a daily.  So to the drawing board I have gone …and, while you will see a very nice an orderly count down into 5 waves, what I decided to do is label the bottom wave a (1) meaning this entire consolidation which I think has kicked a lot of people in the rear (bulls and bears) is making a big multi year triangle and it’s, ultimately, going to crack the dollar wide open.  Not good …

HEADS UP – we have completed a bullish BUY pattern on the dollar index right at the multi month trendline at 79.45-79.47.  But caution is warranted as the THRUST into this level is very bearish. If this pattern fails then leg “d” has begun into the 76 level, and we need to come to the realization that the dollar has potentially entered a very bearish scenario.  Now, I fully expected us to be zooming away in a C wave up to the mid 90’s as shown but the C wave is described as being “a beauty to behold” or “devastating in nature”  w/ thrust and momentum that GOES.  Can you say that the chart is telling us that for the last 1.5-2 years it’s been a rocket ship? No chance …this has been one dead puppy.  And the “visual” weight certainly looks like she might break the trend line.

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here’s one look at the long term Monthly RSI w/ the bearish resistance bands on the RSI noted.  As you can see the BIG POP up never transitioned above the bearish resistance zone.  The RSI will tell us when the trend has changed … since the POP it’s made lower highs and just broke the trend line that had held the RSI as support …

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Note the UUP ETF below … folks, as far as PATTERNS go there isn’t a better set-up. NOTE the .886 retrace held it as resistance so MAYBE it will hold it as support?  Either way, if we break down below 20.84 look out below.  The UUP BUY was such a nice pattern.

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BOTTOM LINE: watch the BULLISH BUY pattern .. with this much slumping and also the BIG CANDLES that came crashing into the pattern today if the dollar can with stand this push THEN it will be impressive. Have to put my big boy technician pants on perhaps throw in the towel on my BULLISH DOLLAR thesis that I have clung to for 1.5 years.

We’ll know in the next two days …

Bart

 

Home Builders relook …

CLIFF NOTES: can see why this current level is important using Adams Pitchfork Method.  The Head and shoulders shown in the post below never materialized by breaking the neck line and we rallied a buck or so higher.  Still looking for this to be an “end of move” pattern …

And I’ll Huff and I’ll Puff and I’ll Blow Your House Down

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