dollar strength foldback up move – complete

September 9, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: the mirror image foldback that we have been following has, for all intensive purposes, completed the move up.  Expect some dollar weakness and, believe it or not, the entire leg down noted by the red arrow to the left of the chart could be a possibility.  the key point – when mirror image foldbacks fail, they usually fail at the key inflection points so watch the current levels on the USD and the levels on the Pound, Euro, Swissy, Loonie, Chief, etc. for signs of dollar weakness.

Dollar Index Foldback - next leg complete
Dollar Index Foldback – next leg complete

as a side note, I’ve added a long term chart of the US Dollar that began the entire dollar strength run back in 2011 …it’s a beauty.

long term US Dollar Foldback
long term US Dollar Foldback


 

 

May 08, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: I thought I had posted this once before .. the POTENTIAL mirror image foldback on the US DOLLAR.  I have gone thru my charts and I can’t find it but I know I sent it to Larry P so … here it is.  Also, go back and look at the UUP (Dollar ETF) chart that we looked at for the .886 retrace and “one last hope.”  Well, today’s action was pretty impressive …is the dollar bull thesis still alive?  Shoot, I don’t know so I sit on my hands, STILL.  Keep an eye out on the dollar … perhaps it set a low?

Mirror Image Foldback
Mirror Image Foldback

 

the other thing that is interesting is the FRACTAL pattern that appears to be working itself out on a longer term chart …

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the Dollar Index Fractal

CLIFF NOTES: I thought I had posted this once before .. the POTENTIAL mirror image foldback on the US DOLLAR.  I have gone thru my charts and I can’t find it but I know I sent it to Larry P so … here it is.  Also, go back and look at the UUP (Dollar ETF) chart that we looked at for the .886 retrace and “one last hope.”  Well, today’s action was pretty impressive …is the dollar bull thesis still alive?  Shoot, I don’t know so I sit on my hands, STILL.  Keep an eye out on the dollar … perhaps it set a low?

Mirror Image Foldback
Mirror Image Foldback

 

the other thing that is interesting is the FRACTAL pattern that appears to be working itself out on a longer term chart …

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Dollar Index … again. Look at this chart … U G L Y.

Cliff Note: the BUY pattern worked and then, well, it didn’t?  Some WILD SWINGS in the currency markets.  the Gorilla’s were/are definitely juggling dynamite.  One of my RULES is that I NEVER trade on non-farm payroll days.  Just sit on my hands … bet a lot of people went long $$, then short $$ then long $$$ … W O W.

Look at the “wicks” on those candles … that is some serious UP and DOWN action.  Do we really have a clue of who has control?  Well, right now the chart is red and lower – so that’s my best guess…

W O W

Guess will take a fresh look (again) this weekend …

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Dollar Update

CLIFF NOTES: the dollar has gone up – strongly —  at the BUY pattern.  While this is good, for now, as you will see below here will be the real test (IMHO).  Here is the last post on the Dollar Index: http://bartscharts.com/2014/04/30/the-dollar-index-is-at-a-very-crucial-and-critical-level-at-79-45-79-47/ I have labeled the potential count occurring if dollar bull thesis is correct.  I am impressed (hopeful ?) that all that thrust DOWN into the pattern was defeated (so to speak) but we have another SELL pattern coming in so if we can bust thru that then probability favors a dollar rise.  Stay tuned …

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the dollar index is at a very crucial and critical level at 79.45-79.47

CLIFF NOTES: I have been a dollar bull for almost a year now and while price has made higher highs on the longer term time frame, it sure looks sick on a daily.  So to the drawing board I have gone …and, while you will see a very nice an orderly count down into 5 waves, what I decided to do is label the bottom wave a (1) meaning this entire consolidation which I think has kicked a lot of people in the rear (bulls and bears) is making a big multi year triangle and it’s, ultimately, going to crack the dollar wide open.  Not good …

HEADS UP – we have completed a bullish BUY pattern on the dollar index right at the multi month trendline at 79.45-79.47.  But caution is warranted as the THRUST into this level is very bearish. If this pattern fails then leg “d” has begun into the 76 level, and we need to come to the realization that the dollar has potentially entered a very bearish scenario.  Now, I fully expected us to be zooming away in a C wave up to the mid 90’s as shown but the C wave is described as being “a beauty to behold” or “devastating in nature”  w/ thrust and momentum that GOES.  Can you say that the chart is telling us that for the last 1.5-2 years it’s been a rocket ship? No chance …this has been one dead puppy.  And the “visual” weight certainly looks like she might break the trend line.

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here’s one look at the long term Monthly RSI w/ the bearish resistance bands on the RSI noted.  As you can see the BIG POP up never transitioned above the bearish resistance zone.  The RSI will tell us when the trend has changed … since the POP it’s made lower highs and just broke the trend line that had held the RSI as support …

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Note the UUP ETF below … folks, as far as PATTERNS go there isn’t a better set-up. NOTE the .886 retrace held it as resistance so MAYBE it will hold it as support?  Either way, if we break down below 20.84 look out below.  The UUP BUY was such a nice pattern.

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BOTTOM LINE: watch the BULLISH BUY pattern .. with this much slumping and also the BIG CANDLES that came crashing into the pattern today if the dollar can with stand this push THEN it will be impressive. Have to put my big boy technician pants on perhaps throw in the towel on my BULLISH DOLLAR thesis that I have clung to for 1.5 years.

We’ll know in the next two days …

Bart