Month: June 2017

MSFT Microsoft UPDATED and UPDATED again ..

06/30/2017 – end of the month, that’s not a bullish candle now is it … monitor this one closely. We do still have that upper target, but that might be all she wrote for the time being.

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06/13/2017 – “still in play” has been  hit which equals a 1.27 and AB-CD on a monthly. Note, the ‘big AB-CD’ from the all time low is around 75.  That could still be hit. Wait for a monthly SRC (monthly close below 68) to close or short, I believe.

Back in the saddle .. been a great time off marrying off my first daughter.

Bart

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03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs.  below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance.  if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.

now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009.  lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:

  • blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
  • the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
  • the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
  • note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
  • on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry

so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here.  a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.

the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?

stay tuned.

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10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist.  inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion.  yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs.  but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars.  nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….

so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.

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note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.

enjoy.

Bart

Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance.  Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump.  But … a PATTERN is  a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.

BUY on MSFT in March 2009
BUY on MSFT in March 2009

so, where are we now?

we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting.  Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion.  (note – 50-52 is still a target.)

MSFT approaching resistance zones - watch closely or take some off the table
MSFT approaching resistance zones – watch closely or take some off the table

 

Mastercard 5 waves up complete? an UPDATE

06/30/2017 – bumped into purple (dashed) trend line w/ a monthly doji. Pause/indecision. Expect some consolidation and pullback but do think the upper target will still be targeted …

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04/29/2017 – the levels shown in the post below held but created a 6-8 month triangle which exploded higher. Triangles are terminal from where they explode (higher or lower) but this stock is really strong. Do I think we are still in a 5th wave – YES.  But, I would keep rolling w/ this until the lower purple trend line is broken on a weekly close …this is a VERY powerful stock.

thanks for asking .. I did this post for a colleague but more importantly a trusted friend.

B

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MasterCard – what a great business model. you swipe the card and they get paid ..nice.

that being said, sure looks like 5 waves complete w/ monster bearish divergence.  note the blue median line.  price has not closed below that on a monthly basis, if we do get that close, then this could accelerate to the downside.

also, thru some geometry on there … when using arcs, the 3 o’clock position is a time component and the top of the circle is price.  see how the “time” component nailed the low?  that gives you a heads up that the price (top of the circle) should be stiff resistance.

B

 

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TLT update … folks, this could be the beginning of a BIG move in RATES

if you search rates on this sight you’ll see we’ve been following the long bond, TBT/TLT, short term interest rates, etc. for a while.

first chart is the projection I sent out to some friends … it went right up into the short zone and has since fallen.

note the measured move corrections – for rates to really take off, believe our first hint/signal will be a break (daily close below) of the 123-124 lower channel support level.

went right up into the zone depicted above:

Crude BUY pattern present – update

06/30/2017 – note measured moves up (blue arrows) – would use those as targets for now. As long as loonie continues to thump the USD, then this might have legs beyond those measured moves.

B

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Oh Canada .. this is a hot mess. Anyone talking head pundits mention this? Nahhh ….

Housing … just keep your head in the sand OR are the clouds forming? 4th update

06/20/2017 – update.

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04/15/2017 – XHB has continued higher. It hasn’t made new highs but it sure isn’t showing the weakness that the rest of the overall market is showing right now …I’ve also updated ITB. Note, I didn’t have all the data (not sure why) the last time I posted on this one … the high is in/around 50.

I see strong resistance for XHB and ITB in the coming days/weeks .. I also see 900,000 – 1MM dollar houses in San Diego that are standing inventory all over the place… something will figure itself out, I do know that.

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1/30/2017 – TON of standing inventory in the 900,000 range for .00004 acres and <2000 sq ft w/ rates rising.  (I know that’s fundamental ‘stuff’ but it helps cast a picture)

a ‘basic’ H+S on the Home-builders sure seems to be building … only ‘TIME’ will tell.  note the ‘time’ symmetry between the L and R shoulders. Kind of cool.

be well, do good.

Bart

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11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship.  You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′.  Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.

were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders.  This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.

of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:

home

the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash.  Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining.  Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.

Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …

For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks.  We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice.  (https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/06/most-important-chart-to-end-2014/)

So, that’s all I’m doing again ….

Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE  on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …

Do well, be good and rock on, always.

Bart

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I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather.  YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …

I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why?  Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing.  Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle.  Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.

Study:

  • this ETF doesn’t want to go below 27.  Big support …
  • also, note the AB-CD projection down to 25.40 – if we crack from here expect support there and if BULLISH this will hold and bring it to new highs. If it fails … watch out below.
  • THOSE are the levels to watch …
  • sure looks like a MONTHLY H&S pattern for this ETF … doesn’t it?

To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM.  Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …

Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders.  It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….

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Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)

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Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …

Bart

 

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

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here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

https://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-update-long-duration-treasury-bonds-deeply-oversold-16360/

$WFM …man took a while but it popped …UPDATED

06/17/2017 – I’m learning a ton by blogging.  I’m learning that using WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts is my style, I’m learning that locomotive freight train stocks/indices are a beauty to behold but I’m also continually cementing the fact that everything is VIBRATION.

Take for instance WFM.  This week, it was announce AMZN was going to buy them.  WOW … but I didn’t know that two years ago when I noticed a bunch of numbers based on sacred geometry, music and square roots were all coming together and all these ‘numbers’ held as support.

So, if you want to see how to manage risk .. (OBTW that’s the power of PATTERNS using leading indicators based on vibration and music theory, sacred geometry – YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE WRONG) then I urge you to go all the way to the bottom of this post and then work your way up.

For now, note that the announcement this past week exploded the price right to … wait for it .. .right to point of an AB=CD ‘basic’ price projection.  Also, note the gap that is standing in it’s way in/around 44-47.  Expect some resistance in around there/here but that 2 year consolidation would be a great place to buy against if it gets that low ..

enjoy and have a great weekend. Amazing beach water in San Diego .. going to hit the SUP.

Bart

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04/29/2017 – consolidated for a long time and finally popped. a MONTHLY close above the first gap top (40) should seek higher.

also, look at daily – lots of gaps in play …

 

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07/24/2016 – appears to be building an ice base to attack daily gap resistance levels and perhaps roll into higher levels.  a daily/weekly close back below 28 signals a failed pattern and this analysis is wrong.

here was another update: https://bartscharts.com/2015/11/04/wfm-update/

hope this helps my life long friend … see you in San Diego dude!

Bart

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I enjoy listening to JC Parets (@allstarcharts) (www.allstarcharts.com ) as he’s entertaining as hell and also knows his stuff. I blame him for getting me blogging and haven’t looked back since …he’s introduced me to blogging, google hang out, twitter and now periscope.  today, was doing some emails and “periscope” popped up that he was cruising the charts so I simply hit the app and was immediately logged onto his computer screen where he was pushing some charts around.

one of the charts – Whole Foods.  Besides something about overhead supply, divergence, moving averages and stuff like that I called up the chart on a monthly and saw a PERFECT BUY PATTERN.

  • note the blue arrows – projects into 27.94
    • but more importantly, note that they are equal in PRICE and TIME right in/around here.
  • note the extensions (sitting on the 1.27 extension right now)
    • 1.4142 extension hits right on the .618 retrace (that’s good) at 27.16-27.21
  • last, look at the dashed orange line .. it’s a measured move which represents the largest corrective move since the all times lows in the early 1990’s

So, sure looks like it “should not” go thru 27 so it presents a nice risk reward.

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how about some math?

  • (square root 65.58-2)^2 = 37.18
  • (square root 65.58-4)^2 = 16.79 (right on the .786)
  • (square root 65.58-3)^2 = 25.99

so, we have a LOT of thrust coming into this level but a lot of math is coming into play in/around 26-27.

thanks JC!

Bart