Crude Oil Update, ratio of XLE/NYA, HYG and Crude and a bunch of other stuff

11/10/2018 – overall, our key 75-76 level was hit and has caused the sell off. take a look at the charts below …

some critical developments:

  • the XLE/NYSE Index ratio has hit a perfect BUY PATTERN so expecting the energy complex to bounce/hold/consolidate as this level holds.  IF IT FAILS then the sell off will be pretty immense. So watch t his level.
  • on the Crude, anytime you have a .382 and .618 (.382+.618 = 1) present that should act as important S or R. In this case SUPPORT. we have some polarity present also so ‘expect’ a bounce in Crude … will update accordingly.
  • also, note the correlation between crude and HYG. (High Yield Bond ETF) … perhaps the carnage in Crude will stop at support levels indicated which ‘should’ keep HYG at bay (if the correlation is still holding) but if Crude busts thru then that support cliff for HYG should give away and then it will get very interesting
  • also, put the oldie but goodie of the HIGH on crude on my birthday and the subsequent low to show some geometry at work and the fact that long term charts can certainly help .. .a famous quote “there is nothing new under the sun.”

thanks reading …. B

 

 

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06/03/2018 – sorry that i didn’t send out the charts below via my blog .. honestly, I think I just forgot and then went on some travel …big thing here is we hit an important high a week or so ago based on TIME so this could be a very important top in crude.

honestly not sure if we have completed a 4 ( if YES we have  BIG MOVE COMING lower) or an end to a bullish bounce and we are correcting to buy ..

either way, this should do it for crude for a while at least. will be watching and, again, apologize for not blogging earlier.

as an FYI, the charts are real time they were just sent out via email …

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

this is the update as of 06/001/2018:

Crude Oil Approaching BIG low …update to the update to the update

12/06/2017  – looks like we are smacking into some large resistance from a time and price perspective. here or a little higher should do it for Crude for now.

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2/2/2017 – can’t believe it’s been over a year since I posted on crude – but I guess it has. as you can see below, the ‘math’ tagged the low in crude.

where do we go from here? well, the ‘easy count’ and that’s what I’m into says – perhaps – a little higher and then down to take out 26 ?

no way, right? You Never Know.

Bart

Continue reading “Crude Oil Approaching BIG low …update to the update to the update”

Crude BUY pattern present – update

06/30/2017 – note measured moves up (blue arrows) – would use those as targets for now. As long as loonie continues to thump the USD, then this might have legs beyond those measured moves.

B

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Crude Oil … a potential roadmap

10/2/2014: we are at a very crucial junction w/ regards to Crude Oil.  the big picture is resolving and, quite frankly, I’m not sure which BIG directional move to favor so i’m just going to TRUST the PATTERN that might have completed today.  There’s an interpretation on IF the patterns works AND if the pattern doesn’t work but either way, believe we have a “line in the sand” so to speak from which to draw our conclusions and watch for confirmation in any direction.  That’s why we are technicians – let PRICE and TIME be our guide.

today we have a very nice 3 drives to a bottom w/ a butterfly pattern that hit almost exactly and a rather nice INTRADAY pattern completed. we DO NOT have a DAILY signal reversal candle.  that will not happen until we CLOSE above 93 on a daily basis.  here’s the chart:

Crude Oil Intraday Patterns completing
Crude Oil Intraday Patterns completing

as you can see it didn’t go all the way into our BUY ZONE so it still “might” fail into that area but based on today’s action …. not sure the probability is in our favor. here’s the math behind the daily set-up:

Crude Oil Daily Pattern
Crude Oil Daily Pattern

w/ those patterns as our backdrop why is the area we are in “now” such a big deal?  well, for those of you trained in Elliott Wave theory we are finishing the 5th wave of contracting price action.  that contraction is “usually” named a triangle and can be labeled a,b,c,d,e.  In the context of the BIG PICTURE this level is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT because it’s my conjecture that from this area we are either going to 1) move to new highs to ultimately attack 200 OR 2) crash and burn into the low 20’s.  YUP … that’s what I’m saying and based on longer term patterns, that’s what the picture presents.

here’s the long term play for both the bulls and the bears.  I will present each chart and then provide some commentary …

THE BULL CASE:

Crude Oil the BULL case)
Crude Oil the BULL case)

Here’s what we know:

  • using LOG scale helps see the moves move clearly.  this is a log scale of the crud oil monthly continuous contract
  • the move from 10-149 was a clear 5 waves UP.
  • the correction labeled 4 DID NOT go below 1
  • 3 is not the shortest
  • 2 does not go below the beginning of 1
  • folks, that’s a valid count.
  • now, what I don’t like is the TIME distance of the c-d leg of the triangle. it just doesn’t “look and feel” right ….
  • so, on the BULLISH side of the house we have a BULLISH buy PATTERN that completed today or a little lower that represents the end of a triangle (e)

THE BEAR CASE:

CRUDE the BEAR CASE
CRUDE the BEAR CASE

Here’s what we know:

  • using LOG scale helps see the moves move clearly.  this is a log scale of the crud oil monthly continuous contract
  • the move up from 10-49 was a clear 5 waves UP
  • the primary a and b waves are 3 waves and the c wave is 5
  • folks that’s a valid count
  • the triangle sure looks better from a look and feel perspective ….
  • for a to equal c (doesn’t have to but usually does) this move down could reach all the way down to 25/barrel.

one last, here’s a chart of the XLE / SPY.  we just broke some crucial trend line support … hmmmm

XLE / SPY
XLE / SPY

wish I had longer chart data as that might help resolve the conflict on the bullish vs bearish case.  right now … well, we have a pattern that has been hit or about to be hit and, well, let’s see if it works or not.  I HAVE NO IDEA OR OPINION EITHER WAY … but it will help provide a road map once it resolves and that’s kind of cool, I think (?)

rock on, ok?

voo doo man out — B

 



 

10/31/2013: I enjoy this chart, not only for the amazing dynamics of the math and harmony but … I’ll tell you in a minute

Exact high on crude oil ...
Exact high on crude oil …

here’s why – it occurred on my birthday!  🙂  July 11, 2008 was the high on crude …

anyway, I have to admit that this scenario I am putting out on the blog is, perhaps crazy, but it’s an interpretation that you can pay attention to or not … the one thing I DO NOT LIKE is that first move up from one ….it sure looks like only 3 waves and, well, that can’t be right BUT in the context of the picture it fits so I am going w/ it.  the other thing is wave 4 can’t overlap the end of wave 1 and well, technically, it does go threw there for a bunch of months but NEVER closes below so I’m working w/ that one also .. subjective interpretation so to speak.

so, below are the pictures that I”m working w/ … the thesis is we have a very powerful C wave in oil down that has just begun and one that will, ultimately need to bought – perhaps 6-9 months from now … enjoy.

a POTENTIAL count
a POTENTIAL count

 

Main20131031055010

let’s talk Crude Oil ..

man today was a blast, hugh?

ebola, dudes attacking the white house, ISIS, Russia, Hong Kong Riots … let’s make life easy and watch the patterns!

look at this amazing BUY appearing on CRUDE ….for us pattern recognition dudes/dudettes we could care a less till 84-87 is targeted.

rock on, ok?

B

CRUDE BUY
CRUDE BUY

Energy is usually the last shoe to drop

CLIFF NOTES: below you will see a butterfly top coming into play in the XLE.  98 and/or 110 should act as major resistance.  Let’s take a look at the potential set-up’s coming into play:

  • DJ Transports have completed a MAJOR BEAR pattern w/ the AB=CD completing from the late 1800’s.
  • DJ Utilities have a MAJOR BEAR pattern just a little bit higher that should act as major resitance.
  • THE XLF (proxy for the financials) has completed a WEEKLY BEAR pattern … the banks usually lead us UP and lead us DOWN.
  • Parabolic Charts have shown the first sign of weakness (IBB, GOOG, PCLN, etc, etc) which usually results in weakness.  The Social Media darlings have “cracked”
  • Multiple Long Term 5 wave counts are complete on some very important big cap stocks
  • And, from a cycles perspective one of my mentors, Mike Jenkins at http://www.stockcyclesforecast.com wrote this:

The biggest cluster of cycles we will face for the next decade hit from April 14 to 23rd, but
not really ending until the solar eclipse on the 29th. In my life I’ve never seen anything like it
except perhaps for 1974. My guess is a Middle East War or major stock market collapse, or
major earthquake. I would be extremely defensive until we get to the May 2nd to 5th pivot.

So, the band can continue to play on but let’s trade what we see … the XLE is important  because it is usually the last to top in a bull market.

rotation

With that in mind we now present a BEARISH BUTTERFLY SELL PATTERN as shown …

I left the background of the chart black for Easter Color affect ...
I left the background of the chart black for Easter Color affect …

We have been watching this target per this post: http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/15/part-iv-sp-and-energy/

Main20140420115954

Main20140420120216

 

Main20140420120418

 

Stay tuned as this market is topping (has topped) folks and w/ the amount of evidence being shown, it’s time to seriously get defensive and take profit or be in cash.   Once these patterns complete …

 

Happy Easter — Bart