Month: January 2016

WMT – into the high 60’s?

 

1/30/2016 – WMT propelling higher.  68 or 72 potential targets, or quite frankly, new highs? too early to tell but it has been extremely bullish.

if you want to follow along – scroll down to the bottom where we show patterns into the HIGH and then use geometry and patterns to find the 55-56 area as support.

THERE IS ZERO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IN LOOKING AT THESE SWING HIGH AND LOW TARGETS.

Bart

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$WMT hit the support area and has been climbing.  certainly appears the high 60’s could be in play? Please see below.

hope you had a great Festivus w/ family and friends.

spend some time working thru this post from the bottom up …

rock on, ok?

Bart

 

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Just a heads up … were “there” or “close” w/ regards to potential WMT support.

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Here’s the picture of $WMT in 2013 – sure looked, at the time, we were finishing 5 waves and the circle area was the target area for a “potential” top.

$WMT moving into the highs - Nov 2013
$WMT moving into the highs – Nov 2013

Target was hit and yesterday the move rally began.  Hard to believe it’s roughly 2 years ago that this pattern was ID’d and it took that long for it to start to make the “news” so to speak.  Anyway, now that the chaos and news is getting ahold of it, believe a look at a potential long swing trade in the mid to low 50’s is reasonable.

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Here’s the daily chart … note the square root target of 56 lands right on the .382 retracement from the all time low. I like that … watch that 55-56 level.

Just another math thing … 90/1.618 = 56.  Another reason to like the level.

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Here’s the weekly 1/8th projection method …

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55-56 sure seems like it’s key WHICH MEANS IF IT FAILS THEN WE GOT SOMETHING REALLY WRONG AT THE CIRCLE K.

B

 

 

 

my favorite ratio is still warning to stay defensive, for now ….

1/30/2016 – the market has rallied nicely off the most recent lows.  HOWEVER, I’m getting into “correction over” or “bull trend resumes” until this target shown below (updated) is hit and then we get a weekly signal reversal candle.  Take note – when the overall market is going UP this ratio should be going down. It isn’t … in my world, that means staples are still the play and that’s defensive.  Stay tuned …

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“defy human nature and do the work …”

Jim Twentyman

folks, the market is giving us a road map and, if we get our “heads out of the airplane” you can see it …

what’s the “best” road map, in my HUMBLED opinion?  Ratio analysis using pattern recognition …the key w/ ratio analysis is it gives you the “big boys” road map.

XLP – staples. in times of “risk off” the institutions have to go somewhere, right?  they go defensive – staples.

$NYA – a really really important index.

so, when the XLP starts to outperform on a relative basis, then the gig is up and the rotation is occurring.

here’s a more in depth blog about it: http://bartscharts.com/2015/06/27/revisiting-the-xlpspx-ratio-again-in-june-2015/

here’s the ratio, updated:

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couple things:

  • note the pattern a little higher (means more losses for stocks, OBTW).  That’s a really really powerful SELL pattern which means Equities go up.
  • note the pattern timed – almost exactly – EVERY high and low since 2000. I would suspect it would give us clues for longer periods BUT XLP inception was in 1998.
  • note, at “market lows” there was a shit load of accumulation occurring or, in the case of the chart “distribution” at the highs.
  • one last, as the market continued to breathe into the stratosphere one would think that the RATIO should have been falling out of the sky right? I mean it was so easy, so good BUT the market was telling you – right here on this chart that we were weak internally AND the big boys weren’t really playing were they?  If they were full risk on then this ratio would be going down like it did 2002-2007.  It didn’t .. in fact NOT ONE SWING LOW HAS BEEN BROKEN since 2007 ratio low.  Think about that for a moment …

So, unless your a swing trader w/ a couple days holding period OR a day trader then I wouldn’t touch equities until this pattern completes.

hope this helps.

B

$ABX “should” give 13 bucks a try …

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here’s a link to the $ABX work that has been done: http://bartscharts.com//?s=ABX

Bart

$FAZ … let’s get ready to rumble

Just did an update for Andy and the people  over @seeitmarket on this post: http://www.seeitmarket.com/bank-stocks-near-make-break-point-2015-13986/ It was the first week of January 2015.  Yep,  over a year ago …

So, it appears the press still isn’t paying attention to them … $DB is getting smoked and looks like LEH before it went off the cliff.

check out this chart of $FAZ. It’s an inverse of the banking index and leveraged, big time.  Also note in 2008 the price was 160,000.

so we have something very interesting occurring.  we need to let the market come to us and show us what it wants to do … see the RSI?  IF the banks are in trouble THEN the market will shift and attack the higher bullish rsi resistance zone around 80-90.  If they are “ok” – for now – then  we should find stiff resistance and the trend resumes.  so, watch this closely because IF we go up and tag the upper zone, then we are in a “bull market” and the banks are going to get smoked …

stay tuned …

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Loonie … an update

the loonie fell 700+ pips in 3 days. that’s a big move in the currency markets ..

so, where are we  now .. appears we are in a rally that needs to get shorted (LOONIE strength)

here’s the charts I’m using …some really strong levels on the $OSX.  not sure which one will be hit, yet.

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Mastercard 5 waves up complete?

Mastercard – what a great business model. you swipe the card and they get paid ..nice.

that being said, sure looks like 5 waves complete w/ monster bearish divergence.  note the blue median line.  price has not closed below that on a monthly basis, if we do get that close, then this could accelerate to the downside.

also, thru some geometry on there … when using arcs, the 3 o’clock position is a time component and the top of the circle is price.  see how the “time” component nailed the low?  that gives you a heads up that the price (top of the circle) should be stiff resistance.

B

 

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XLE ratio analysis worked well, this time

1/23/2016 – wanted to show these charts again. they are all ratio analysis of XLE (energy) versus the major components of the S&P.  Ratio analysis w/ pattern recognition is very powerful.

all of these patterns hit, oil moved down to the 25-27 area, the OSX/NYA ratio worked and Oil popped and the Loonie got 500+ pips in two days.

not sure, honestly, if we have a trend change BUT it does appear that the energy sector has a trade worth bottom in place.

Bart

 

 

am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.

sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.

of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.

means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….

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quite the set-up in $GILD

take a look at this one .. YES, it’s sure looking “heavy” and we do have the classic H+S pattern forming BUT …right below is a an amazing pattern.

no less than 6 rati0’s and an “AB=CD” projection … have to give it a shot.

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