XLE ratio analysis worked well, this time

1/23/2016 – wanted to show these charts again. they are all ratio analysis of XLE (energy) versus the major components of the S&P.  Ratio analysis w/ pattern recognition is very powerful.

all of these patterns hit, oil moved down to the 25-27 area, the OSX/NYA ratio worked and Oil popped and the Loonie got 500+ pips in two days.

not sure, honestly, if we have a trend change BUT it does appear that the energy sector has a trade worth bottom in place.

Bart

 




 

am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.

sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.

of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.

means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….

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continuing to work a long Loonie potential- more

am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.

sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.

of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.

means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….

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PATTERN repeat, watch for them at tops and bottoms

I’ve blogged a bunch about the power of using technical analysis and ratio analysis.  you don’t have to read a 500 page diatribe about the fundamentals (which are important) but you plot A/B and see if it’s going UP or DOWN. UP A is outperforming .. DOWN and A is underperforming. DONE.

so as everyone gets their panties in a knot about the Death Cross (I like to call it the Iron Lotus – actually got a “like” from Blades of Glory on Twitter – how cool is that?), China and the Yuan and a low VIX and let’s see what else … blah f’ing blah.  I go to the chart. What is it telling us?

John Murphy – technician extraordinaire – taught us in the CMT program to look for discretionary and staples to give us clues.  How do you find clues? do the ratio….

Here it is …

XLY / XLP
XLY / XLP

what sticks out to me …? we have the SAME PATTERN at the top … but it also took time to finally crack. to the tune of 2-3 years….

I’ve drawn some simple trend lines to watch and if/when they are taken out on a weekly close below then it’s time to look for Will Ferrell’s head on the ice because the Iron Lotus failed (meaning the sharp skate cut his head off … tragic)  Take a look at the “get out” portion of the trend line from 2007 time frame.  We can see it got tested and then it broke … time to get defensive.  Believe that’s a good playbook for now …until tested and broken the band “should” play on ….

here’s the $NYA overlaid .. note the distribution that occurred at the 2007 top.

XLY / XLP ratio and $NYA
XLY / XLP ratio and $NYA

here’s the XLY/XLP ratio w/ the $NYA/XLP overlaid on top of it … why is it important?  Well, as you can see, much like the last post: http://bartscharts.com/2015/08/08/bill-and-teds-excellent-adventure-meets-the-matrix-in-two-charts/ we can see that the ratio of the NYA/staples is plumbing all time lows … this is not a very good picture.

so, if the rotation really occurs out of the discretionary’s, believe this ratio will break support and start downhill fast.

so, now we have some trend lines to watch for weakness.

it’s all one big jigsaw puzzle.

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rock on, ok?

B

Continuing to watch the components (>10%) of the S&P 500 – an update

CLIFF NOTES: the biggest development of this past week was the CLOSE above our pattern level on the XLF.  It is my belief, and history has shown, that the banks LEAD us UP and LEAD us DOWN. As long as the banks are stable, this market will continue it’s “Wizard of Oz’s” climb …also, my last post had the “white flag” at the bottom as I have given up and thrown in the towel to the bear patterns.  It’s different this time …

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the importance of the recent reweight in the S&P 500

yesterday was a quarterly option expiration AND an important S&P reweighing .. our last  post at the sectors of the S&P 500 were dominated by technology, energy and financials … that changed, pretty substantially.  now, hot of the presses the sectors are:

  • information technology 18% : using VGT as a proxy.  see chart below.  SELL PATTERN complete/completing.
  • financials 16.4%: using XLF as a proxy.  see chart below.  SELL PATTERN complete/completing.
  • health care 13.1%: using XLV as a proxy.  see chart below.  no discernible pattern however it’s approaching PARABOLIC
  • consumer discretionary: 12.5%: using XLY as a proxy. see chart below.  no discernible pattern however it’s approaching PARABOLIC.
  • industrial 11.1%: using XLI as a proxy. see chart below. SELL PATTERN complete/completing
  • energy 10.3%: using XLE as a proxy.  see chart below.  no new high, an extension sell pattern complete at 88 but perhaps 97 is where it will go.

so, note the inclusion of health care, consumer discretionary and industrial and there close to parabolic states continues the advance. additionally, am using VGT and the NASDAQ as proxies for the IT sector.  70% of the S&P 500 are either approaching parabolic or SELL patterns are completing …

stand by …..

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financials
financials
health care
health care
consumer discretionary
consumer discretionary
industrials
industrials
energy
energy