XLE ratio analysis worked well, this time

1/23/2016 – wanted to show these charts again. they are all ratio analysis of XLE (energy) versus the major components of the S&P.  Ratio analysis w/ pattern recognition is very powerful.

all of these patterns hit, oil moved down to the 25-27 area, the OSX/NYA ratio worked and Oil popped and the Loonie got 500+ pips in two days.

not sure, honestly, if we have a trend change BUT it does appear that the energy sector has a trade worth bottom in place.

Bart

 




 

am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.

sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.

of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.

means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….

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continuing to work a long Loonie potential- more

am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.

sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.

of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.

means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….

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monitoring the top 10% weighted sectors ….

I really liked this post: http://bartscharts.com/2014/03/16/swing-low-sweet-chariot/

CLIFF NOTES: our PATTERNS have been hit across the board in the top weighted sectors of the S&P.  However, doesn’t mean a darn thing till the swing lows are taken out. Review the post above …

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Continuing to watch the components (>10%) of the S&P 500 – an update

CLIFF NOTES: the biggest development of this past week was the CLOSE above our pattern level on the XLF.  It is my belief, and history has shown, that the banks LEAD us UP and LEAD us DOWN. As long as the banks are stable, this market will continue it’s “Wizard of Oz’s” climb …also, my last post had the “white flag” at the bottom as I have given up and thrown in the towel to the bear patterns.  It’s different this time …

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going thru the heavy weights that make up the S&P …

in Mid-December 2013 we went thru the top weighted (by percentage) sectors in the S&P after the most re-weighting … at the time, most of them were either finishing or approaching or hitting sell patterns.  As of this writing, the patterns have held w/ no significant failures or break-outs.  this is bearish … only time will tell if we have entered a CONTINUATION of the bear market that began in 2000.  here is the link to the post mentioned at the beginning of this diatribe:

the importance of the recent reweight in the S&P 500

updated charts showing where we are w/ regard to the patterns:

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the importance of the recent reweight in the S&P 500

yesterday was a quarterly option expiration AND an important S&P reweighing .. our last  post at the sectors of the S&P 500 were dominated by technology, energy and financials … that changed, pretty substantially.  now, hot of the presses the sectors are:

  • information technology 18% : using VGT as a proxy.  see chart below.  SELL PATTERN complete/completing.
  • financials 16.4%: using XLF as a proxy.  see chart below.  SELL PATTERN complete/completing.
  • health care 13.1%: using XLV as a proxy.  see chart below.  no discernible pattern however it’s approaching PARABOLIC
  • consumer discretionary: 12.5%: using XLY as a proxy. see chart below.  no discernible pattern however it’s approaching PARABOLIC.
  • industrial 11.1%: using XLI as a proxy. see chart below. SELL PATTERN complete/completing
  • energy 10.3%: using XLE as a proxy.  see chart below.  no new high, an extension sell pattern complete at 88 but perhaps 97 is where it will go.

so, note the inclusion of health care, consumer discretionary and industrial and there close to parabolic states continues the advance. additionally, am using VGT and the NASDAQ as proxies for the IT sector.  70% of the S&P 500 are either approaching parabolic or SELL patterns are completing …

stand by …..

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financials
financials
health care
health care
consumer discretionary
consumer discretionary
industrials
industrials
energy
energy