Month: January 2016

ratio analysis combined w/ patterns is helpful OSX, Crude and Loonie

here’s the RATIO of $OSX / $NYA. it has a buy pattern HERE or a little LOWER.

below that is crude and CAD vs USD (USDCAD inverted) overlaid on top of the ratio.

they move together

so IF this BUY pattern works THEN we have a big move coming BULLISH for Crude and the Loonie.

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New York Stock Exchange … $NYA doing the same thing as 2007

two things to note:

  • the trend line break and then the retest right at the .618 retracement from 2003-2007 trendline.
  • CURRENTLY: the trend line break and then the retest at the .618 from 2009-2015 trendline.

lower highs since April 2015 …. just a pattern.

hope you have had a wonderful wonderful…

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the ripples in the water of the World Wide Water Index

  1. the market is vibrations.
  2. vibrations are waves
  3. when a rock, for instance, hits a pond it produces waves that manifest outwardly
    1. in the market, the ROCK IS THE INITIAL IMPULSE MOVE
    2. we divide the high and the low and we get the fundamental frequency.
      1. in this case it’s equal to – basically – the golden mean – 1.619
      2. 1.619*1767 = 2862 and THAT landed right on the 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618) of the 2007 high.

so, we have a lot of patterns coming into play and that is arcing out the “standard” H+S pattern w/ the neckline shown by the dashed black line …. looks like 2500 ish is the neckline … a weekly close below that is something to watch …big time.

cool, hugh?

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Goldman Sachs flirting w/ a top-top cycle and the dreaded neckline

w/ the breaking of the red trend line from 2009 and the neckline at 170 believe GS will be in trouble w/ this occurring.

it very well could go higher and attack my upper target, but just not sure if it’s going to get there … we’ll see.

keep any eye on this one .. first confirmation is a break (daily/weekly close below) of the red trend line and then the neckline around 170.  that should put tremendous pressure on the GS bulls, so to speak.

also, note the high-high cycle that is working since the IPO.  this “balances” the chart very nicely.  my thesis, for now is we are moving back down RIGHT TO LEFT off that first high from the early 2000’s and a PERCENTAGE CORRECTION of that magnitude is a minimal first target if/when we break trendlines mentioned above.

just an FYI .. that “percentage correction” is roughly 122 to 58 or 50% ….so the low 100’s isn’t out of the question.

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the GBP vs USD is about to test a 30 year trend line … I M P O R T A N T test

1/2/2016 – Pound is flirting w/ a 30 year trend line . this is going to get very very interesting.

note, when drawing the trendlines I did the “usual” and connected the lows but also use some higher wicks and the most recent low in 2015 to get a zone where the the important support could come in.  those are the red, purple and black trend lines below.

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we’ve spent some time in the past blogging about the importance of square roots …their importance is based on musical theory.

after spending way too much time studying the spot currency market, it’s a little known fact that the Pound vs USD “likes” to bounce around the .886 retracement level and, occasionally, the .841.

.886?

square root of .886.

here’s a weekly chart showing the .886 and .841 in action:

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even the “minor” bounces caused moves in excess of 600 pips.  so, I like to pay attention to them …

additionally, as you can see above we are approaching a VERY VERY crucial level on the POUND.  It’s about to slam into the long term trend line from 2009 low AND (more importantly) it’s approaching the key retracement level.

so what do we do? step down a level to the daily.

in the daily, we have a LOT going on ….

  • 3 drives to a bottom w/ what appears to be a 19 day cycle carving out the 3 drive (hint hint we are 194 (19.4) calendar days from the top)
    • blue arrows
  • RSI divergence being shown and key RSI support a little lower
  • .886/.841 zones
  • some SQUARE OUT’s of PRICE and TIME
    • We went up from the low in April 1364 pips.  working/moving decimal we get 136.4.  136.4 trading days or candles from the top is today.
      • note, I used the ‘breakdown” candle
  • fundamental frequency target
    • we’ve done this before and when using the initial impulse move we yield a target of 1.4700 which lands right on the “key” trend line from the 2009 low.
  • some “geometry” techniques taught to me by my friend and mentor Mike Jenkins. (www.stockcyclesforecast.com)

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as you can see, we have some key areas of support coming in …. now, IF WE LOSE THESE LEVELS (a total possibility) THEN we have a MAJOR MONTHLY PATTERN WORKING OUT that is roughly 800-1000 pips lower.

Not ready to make a trade on it – yet, but here’s a preview. if you’ve been following you’ll see the PATTERN that is forming.

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for now, if you decide to play the daily/weekly pattern working right now THEN use a close stop.  I’m going to nibble long ….but after the first 3 wave move up plan to exit.

B