MSFT vs AAPL .. the great rotation

MSFT / AAPL – note, long term LOG scale and it appears that MSFT (from a relative strength perspective) has broken out this month …

now, this does not mean that the MSFT stock won’t go down – it simply means – from a relative strength perspective – it appears that MSFT is the ‘stronger’ of the two.  If you notice, they both reign supreme for about 10 years and then one outperforms the other.

also, note, since 2012 we have been stair stepping our way UP (higher bottoms) culminating in a nice breakout this month … again, these are MONTHLY candles.

will be interesting to see how this plays out …

Bart

XLE ratio analysis worked well, this time

1/23/2016 – wanted to show these charts again. they are all ratio analysis of XLE (energy) versus the major components of the S&P.  Ratio analysis w/ pattern recognition is very powerful.

all of these patterns hit, oil moved down to the 25-27 area, the OSX/NYA ratio worked and Oil popped and the Loonie got 500+ pips in two days.

not sure, honestly, if we have a trend change BUT it does appear that the energy sector has a trade worth bottom in place.

Bart

 




 

am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.

sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.

of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.

means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….

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continuing to work a long Loonie potential- more

am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.

sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.

of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.

means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….

Page_15-12-21_10-48-55 Page_15-12-21_10-53-33 Page_15-12-21_10-41-41 Page_15-12-21_10-59-32

relative strength of staples vs the S&P importance

in order to get up to speed, if you have not been following, please see the following post:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/07/staples-strength-vs-the-sp/

we completed a perfect price/time pattern BUY on the ratio and it did, in fact, respect the pattern level.  HOWEVER, since then we have taken out the lows of that pattern and if we go back you’ll see that the .786 was ‘still a target.’  the importance of this ratio cannot be overstated – at every major inflection point since 2000 (I don’t have data that goes back any farther) it has pointed to all of the tops and bottoms of the market.  perhaps we’ll go down and tag the .786 … what I can say, is if we blow thru the .786 then it will show a lack of institutional fear in this market as the thesis is the staples start to out perform as rotation occurs in a volatile or bearish market.  so far, this ratio has been stagnant and correcting for a very long time … let’s stay tuned and see what a little lower does for our ratio.

additionally, I have included the WMT gauge.  please see these posts to get a feel for the importance of this ratio:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/25/stay-tuned-the-buy-on-wmtsp-is-complete-or-perhaps-a-little-lower/

XLP/SPX - looks like lower target to get tagged ...
XLP/SPX – looks like lower target to get tagged …
WMT/SPX - little lower ...
WMT/SPX – little lower …