Month: September 2015

note the blue triangle – finished a BUY pattern after breaking the support … IF this is a correct view (the a-b-c-d-e triangle completing the 4th wave) then prices should not go back up above “e” and we are in a “corrective move” up for more weakness to follow.

once prices start back down (if they do) then we’ll see 118.20.

ultimately, this will draw prices down below 116.00 IF CORRECT … as long as price stays below “e” I am going w/ the triangle thesis …

hope you’ve had a GREAT weekend …unbelievable weather here in Northern VA.

cheers to you and yours – wherever you are …

B

09/20/2015 – target zone was “OK” at holding back the AUD vs USD advance. (the FED craziness rolled thru it by 30 pips) but it did stop at the .707 retracement level – exactly.  .707?  (2, square root of 2=1.4142, 1/1.4142 = .707)

so, the current form, proportion and harmony tells me “lower” so I’m still WAITING for 7130 area.

gold/silver “should” be taking off for a “head fake” rally C wave that could be very powerful. hence my interest in Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie.  I like the Aussie for reasons below – the long long term measured move hit exactly on September 06 2015.  so, yes, I’ve have been sitting on my hands to go long for 14 days.  and I’ll keep waiting till a BUY pattern emerges.  🙂

Gasoline futures are giving me a “better” picture because the FORM is very nice.  take a peak below – see the 3 wave move UP into a new high – CLASSIC B WAVE STUFF.  only problem is the recent price action I convoluted.  but, USUALLY, when we have a 3 wave move UP into a new high the move down is 1.618 of the first move down .. shown below.

So, we wait.

 

 

 

 

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09/08/2015 – my target area/zone got crunched pretty bad, and my count is wrong.  all that being said, I didn’t take into account the measured move from 89-01. quite frankly, w/ all that ‘stuff’ coming into the areas as shown below I didn’t  think it could.  So the age old adage of “thinking” versus “seeing” left my target thumped.  W/ so much thrust and momentum going I did not take the long trade but have been waiting …

but, as of last night it has give us a DAILY SRC and when I went back and erased everything I saw a monster cycle coming in and the measured move hit perfectly …hmmm.

how to play ? WAIT for a PATTERN to appear on perhaps a 60 minute chart .. watch gasoline futures and crude and the All Ordinaries for a sign of life and also the Chinese market …

here’s the updated chart:

will update (real time) the play here and the risk and the real time move of a dude in his home juggling dynamite w/ gorilla’s in a cage .. cool hugh?

Bart

 

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Folks, back in October the post below the two dash lines was searching for a low to be in place on the AUD. The form and proportion were just about right. However, w/ the big move in crude, the interest rate extravaganza and the a whole host of other fundamental reasons the real issue is the PATTERN level didn’t work … it went approximately 300 pips below.  HOWEVER, the overall thesis that the Aussie is bottoming versus the dollar still holds true.  It’s showing some nice strength tonight …would love to get a very nice pullback to go long in/around these levels.

Updated charts below:

 

Note the monthly RSI levels … the BIG MOVES UP occurred right where we are sitting.  Also, a case can be made that 4 is complete and we are going to new highs …

last time I checked the Aussie wasn’t part of the US Dollar index … so, watch this one closely. At a minimum we are completing/completed an A and a nice B wave up is to occur.

let’s just get on the right side of the trade and right now that looks like bullish entry for the AUD vs USD.

 

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The Aussie has been correcting for a while and, folks, the move down from 1.100 ish certainly appears to be corrective.  What does that mean?  We are “at” or “near the beginning of a multi year advance that will take out the high July 2011.  Here’s the monthly picture …

TILT … everyone is talking about US Dollar strength – yes, but they are talking about the dollar index which the Aussie isn’t even a part of it.  Or if it is the weight is negligible so in this case we have to take this pair as a single entity – not a weighted index.

here’s the weekly:

note the 3 waves down … that is the key.  it was not a 5 wave movement.  has this correction been complex – yes.  But it’s falling right in line w/ a double three labeled w,x,y.

and, the daily, shown below, just completed 5 waves down.  While it would be perfect symmetrical three drives to a bottom is we go down and attack 8400 – there is a good case to be made that a low is in place. we’ll have to wait for an intraday pattern to appear …

and finally, we’ll see the move down on a 60 minute chart is a clearly defined 5 waves.

so … there ya have it.

what to do?  Well, our thesis is we are beginning a multi year move to take out the old highs from 2011.  IF THAT IS CORRECT THEN WE ARE IN the first stages of the advance.  the first move up (wave 1) will complete and then wave 2 will come and, more than likely, w/ a vengeance because everyone thinks the “old trend” is in play.  That’s the BUYING OPPORTUNITY and price should never go below the low that was formed last week.

stay tuned …get ready to rumble.

Bart

 

Folks, going to point you to a post that my “boy” ( he says that a lot, not sure why – must be a Cuban thing?) wrote about the YEN and it’s importance to the US Equity Market:  http://allstarcharts.com/why-yen-is-the-most-important-chart-for-us-stocks/ . If your not one of the 50K+ following him on stock twits you should.

When I was an instructor for the CMT III course we would have a bunch of people go online from all over the world – it was cool.  As the market was cracking in 2007-2008 I would play Led Zeppelin “when the levy breaks” before each class.  There was one dude who would be all out of breath and I would ask – what the hell are your doing man?  The reply – “going for a run in central park listening to an audio book on technical analysis and CMT III”… that’s JC.  Enough said.

After you digest his blog post, if you still feel like it, take a look at these two charts.  My thesis – we have completed a pretty big high on the USD vs JPY.  Do a search on the YEN on my post and you’ll see I’ve been following this count pretty well.  Why is that important? Well, because it’s time for true confessions …

See the little yellow arrow on the first chart below? (boxed in w/ blue background?)

I GOT STOPPED OUT AT THAT LEVEL TRYING TO GO LONG THE USD VS JPY.  I GOT STOPPED OUT BY 7 PIPS …

THAT PUT ME INTO MY FIRST EVER DRAWDOWN IN 10 YEARS AND, WELL, WELCOME TO A TRADER MEETS CRYPTONITE …

NEEDLESS TO SAY, I’M INTERESTED IN THE USD VS JPY … 🙂

So, to the charts …folks, I like this count. I don’t see it going much higher and, according to the rules I taught in CMT III the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree is a target.  Ummmmm, that’s around 100. In currency terms that is HUGE.  (Kind of like the quadrillion of derivatives outstanding)

So (saw that Peter Gabriel concert where he played it exactly like the CD – more on that later) if were correct here AND the correlation w/ stocks remains in tact THEN equities are going to have a tough time.

To the charts …

You can see (chart below) that I am labeling it A-B-C (we just finished triangle 4 w/ a 5th wave to come) for now because the uptrend is so powerful … the probability is that we will see a new low below 116 on the USD vs JPY.  At that time … we’ll take a look at labeling this A w/ B-C to come or correction complete.  For now, if we break that lower trend line below, consider another move lower and therefore weakness in stocks over the coming weeks.

Let me know if you have any questions.

B

If you want to draw “real” trend lines then it’s imperative you have a good place to start …

the key w/ trend lines is “LINING THEM UP W/ THE PLANE OF THE CHART .. the chart doesn’t go just UP and DOWN. It goes according to vector math w/ an X/Y (it also has a Z component but that’s another post) component.

below is the LONG TERM GBP chart … note the dashed blue line.  that move will define the geometry of only two more trend lines.  a 90 degree and 45 degree angle.

 

next, you’ll see red “rays” drawn w/ only 90 and 45 degrees. Look at the price action around these lines …

now it’s just a matter of drawing more squares …note the highlighted area.  That’s where I wanted to focus but in order to do that I had to go WAY BEYOND the SIDES and TOPS AND BOTTOMS to draw the real trendlines .. once I found at point which “found” the support and resistance area since 2009 I now have a clue of the IMPORTANCE of this area and can/will develop a gameplan around it ..

why squares?  why not?

let’s have some fun tomorrow and rock and roll ….

Bart