KBW – June 16, 2025

KBW has very strong targets higher … needs to take out the old high fro a couple months ago – is it going to?

My last post on the KBW showed 139 as the key resistance based on a measured move target. The high being hit on February 7, 2025.

Here’s the link to that post: https://bartscharts.com/2025/01/06/kbw-january-6-2025/

That top, in/around 139-140 is SQUARED OUT on 06/26/2025. Keep an eye on that date.

Here’s a chart from a while ago (October 19,2021) showing how, even though time has passed, the targets still remain:

Here’s the most recent price action on a Monthly … if we take the most recent swing high at 139-140 out to the upside then do believe we have a VERY strong target in the 155 area and the 160-162. YES I WILL BE WATCHING 161.8 for the resistance. 🙂

Explanation:

  • Blue arrows – represent PRICE measured moves and have been responsible for every up and down move w/in this security. IF (still need to continue surging higher (I DO NOT know if we will or we won’t) we take out the highs then 155 and then 160-162 is the target.
  • 59/18 is a calculation of the fundamental frequency … that target is much higher in the top right.
  • The black solid and dashed lines are projections … notice the dashed black line lands right where the blue measured move vector ends. 155.
  • There are extension targets and the initial impulse move projection is 3.142 AB=CD.

This ‘should’ be very strong resistance for the KBW. Only time will tell.

Remember, we still need to take out the highs … not sure if will do that. Who knows …

IBM and the Golden Mean – in time – June 9, 2025

IBM completing a price pattern w/ the Golden Mean, in time.

To follow the IBM bouncing ball: https://bartscharts.com/2025/06/05/ibm-june-5-2025/

The Golden Mean, in time, for IBM:

IBM – June 5, 2025

IBM approaching significant long term target.

Have been playing w/ IBM for a while. You can ‘search’ IBM on the page or this is a pretty good link to show some interesting vibrations/waves w/in IBM. Frankly, I had forgotten about some of the work I had done on IBM.

Need to slow down … https://bartscharts.com/2023/02/25/ibm-february-25-2023/

Anyway, IF long IBM THEN look at taking some profit per the target below or tighten the stop. Remember, folks, it’s all probability sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t.

WMT and TGT

Are we close to a WMT vs TGT rotation? TGT to outperform in the coming weeks or months?

The difference in the stocks of WMT and TGT is pretty amazing.

When we take a look at the ratio of WMT/TGT we can see a parabolic lift off in WMT versus TGT. Frankly, WMT has crushed TGT in the recent past.

Take a look at the ratio – big target for the ratio. Will that signify some relief for TGT and, potentially, some rotation out of WMT?

Some NICE targets across the board in which to see if this plays out.

Note the measured moves … perhaps the dashed red line will lead us right into that confluence zone for a BUY?

Using the technique of finding three lines on a plane to draw an arc I was very surprised that the 4.236 price projection (1.618^3) falls right on the gravity center. NO I did not do that on purpose … I’ve also done a 1.27 extension from the all time high and, last, take a look at the measured moves. Certainly looks like a strong target for WMT.

Here’s the arc and squares created from the gravity center:

Long Bond – April 8, 2025

This looks like BIG TIME support for bonds. What a level.

Well, would you look at that …! Certainly looks like this long term level is going to get tested and boy does it look like some VERY STRONG support …

I’m telling you folks … sounds crazy, but just seems like Mid-May is going to be very interesting. Right …?

Anyhoo, I’m going to close my TBT position and go long TLT … no other reason than why not?

XLP/NYA and IWM – April 08, 2025

The ratio foretold, nicely, some support, for now. IWM is looking SUPER bearish.

This ratio is so key …

We banged into two converging trend lines – resistance – that caused the ‘ratio’ to go down which led to ‘equities’ finding some support. Pretty ugly rally, if you ask me BUT we now know why we found the support.

If/when (certainly does seem like it) the upper trend line gets taken out to the upside, then the selling will more than likely continue (intensify?) up to the blue zone.

There we have 4 nice attributes to build a wall of resistance … I suspect that will hold. Not sure if this is IT and we go to new highs or it’s a bounce…. I think we’ll know if/when it occurs.

When we end up bouncing/find the low, I’ll take a peak at my trusty dusty (it is) 14 period RSI and see if we have broken any ‘bear’ or ‘bull’ zones … on long term charts, the market will tell you. Ms. Brown taught us that in her book and it’s a part of CMT II.

I’ll be looking on the hourly to see if/when support comes in for the ratio … expect this to be corrective and, therefore, swings will be crazy.

Honestly, just set your stops and take the rest of the week off …

The reason I hesitate to say BUY for new highs or BUY but it’s just a bounce is because I really have no clue …there are arguments (too many of them if you ask me) from both the bulls and bears. All I know is some LONG TERM targets were hit and, therefore, it should surprise us to see a 30-40 percent correction because that is what they done on most major CORRECTIONS.

Now, that being said, I want to post this chart of the IWM as this is the count I have been going w/ for a few years. (Still doesn’t mean its right, LOL!)

And away it went … one of the ‘best’ things I learned when starting to count (I’m still a work in progress w/ it) is look for form, balance and harmony. See how Wave 2 and Wave 4 just look right …?

So, if this count is correct (it’s guided me nicely for a while) then the Russell is cooked – night night – call it a qual. And to that, I say, WOW. Hope (a strategy) I’m wrong because -is it too crazy to be guilty by association – what does that say about the rest of the market? Is this a BIG BIG TOP?

The America Codes – April 06, 2025

This is the most important message for our times. I can’t stress this enough. Please forward to anyone and everyone you know. Make this go viral.

Go back 24 years or so and I distinctly remembering telling my wife of 34 (almost 35) years, high school sweetheart and just amazing soul “I think the market is going to teach me who I AM …”

And, with that, I took the red pill.

Guess what, I was right. 🙂

Fast forward to 2025 and I realize now that 1/ I do, truly, know who I AM and 2/ I truly know nothing.

Folks, we have a world gone wild, orbs in the sky, a dude on the Shawn Ryan Show who claims a ‘new dawn for humanity’ in Easter of 2026, ‘something’ found under the pyramids of Giza, the complete and precise zodiac inside the Kings Chamber and the list could go on and on …

Who are we as a species and what the hell is going on? Watch this podcast, please.

You see, for every purchase of the America Codes, Alan will donate 10% of the purchase towards http://www.thesupvets.org November retreat.

It’s less than the cost of a Happy Hour these days.

The message is powerful, yet simple.

Folks, we are ALL ONE …

Please pass this message far and wide … it’s time to cause a ripple of light. A ripple that is simple yet powerful – WE ARE ALL CONNECTED. WE ARE ALL ONE.

Each time a fellow human wakes up to this reality the ripples build … they become a wave. The wave becomes WE THE PEOPLE …

I promise you will be blown away at the revelations in this podcast.

As a teaser to purchase the America Codes – Trump, Harris, Trade Towers, 9-11 and other ‘revelations’ are encrypted in the founding documents of the United States of America.

Wake up …

Bart

XLP/NYA April 3, 2025

The XLP/NYA ratio is approaching KEY resistance. If this resistance holds, then the market (s) should find support …

Well, looks like the market broke …LOL.

For support, our first target has appeared nicely.

Watch this level on the XLP/NYA … probably tomorrow or Monday the way things have been going.

Also, don’t forget about the 1×1 trendline from the all time low on the NYA … if bullish, this should offer some support …

More targets, albeit lower, are appearing …

I sense/believe (therefore probably wrong) that this rally will be a chance to fade and short again.

While I’m aware, obviously, of the tariffs I’m not paying attention to any of it. The patterns warned us all the way back in December.

Folks, we have two nice projections into what SHOULD be support … hate to say it, IF these patterns fail, then this could REALLY accelerate to the downside. Stay vigilant …

Eggs-March 26, 2025

Price of Eggs hitting significant resistance …

If any of you have any ideas on how to set up alerts and stuff on the charts or dealing stations that would be cool … F O C U S.

No kidding, I totally forgot that a few years ago I was tracking the price of Eggs and was so impressed w/ Trading View and their data.

Guess what … I’m seeing a PATTERN that foreshadows – PREDICTS – a coming price break in Eggs. As we are all aware, if this pattern fails then eggs are gonna be more expensive …

Also, who is going to make me an ‘egg sammy’ if the price of eggs tops at 6.18? YEW …

Here’s the posts from the past on Eggs:

Eggs – February 14, 2023
Eggs – August 17, 2023

Here’s a chart showing the post above:

Anyone see what I see … ABCD on the price of Eggs inbound ..ding ding: