Bart's Charts

Crude Oil – April 8, 2026

Apologize for being absent for so long during this volatile time. Honestly, moved into a new start up doing amazing things and, while I’ve certainly had my one eye on the market every day, I really haven’t been paying attention to it because, well, even though a TON of long term targets were hit and the volatility is pretty wild, it really HASN’T broken down …yet. I say yet, not as a fatalist, not at all. But just from the fact that our brothers and sisters in Egypt are w/out power – right now. Yup, they cut it. Look it up … Over in Asia, fuel shortages and rationing and minimal work days. The supply chain has been severely disrupted folks and, once again, if you are in the US we are sitting pretty – for now – due to our energy independence and a host of other things. And, trust me, that’s just me looking at it objectively. This is going create a rougher patch than the ‘glancing flesh wounds’ that are hitting peeps here and there … in the immortal words of the Dude “well, that’s your opinion man …” Yup and that is all it is …

So, w/ all the emotion flowing around I thought I’d take a look at Crude. Haven’t looked at it for a LONG time. Why? Mostly, because I didn’t know what to do w/ that -40 ish price. Yeah, no kidding … but, tonight, I just went “screw it, that was a price, so it counts.” Certainly appears to work …

What’s pretty amazing? In the height of, one would say, emotions like those who remember living thru 9-11, this conflict with Iran ranks up there in the “big deal” world. Guess what, the ratio’s and patterns are present throughout the conflict! Don’t believe me? See below … fractals peeps, it’s all fractals.

Ultimately, we will realize that the ‘seed’ is EVERYTHING. That initial measured move vector from an IPO or a big low or high contains the ‘DNA’ for that security. It has to be that way … just like the entire universe, that DNA creates a harmonic musical representation of the vibrational interactions of anything or anyone interested in said security at the quantum level which then creates the summation vibration of those emotions represented in price and time. Guess what, nature does the same thing …

So, after letting the emotional vibration play out in both fear and euphoria …they have left us THE seed to now manage risk in this insane environment. You see what happened there …? While you go thru the same emotions as those actually trying to trade these insanely volatile moods, you contribute to the footprint that is being left on the charts but you have the discipline to wait. So, you wait for the emotions – for this particularly security of Crude Oil Continuous Futures – to form the measured moves which are now your graphical representation of – get this – the vibration associated w/ crude oil and this current conflict. Yup …

Now, ALL futures moves in this emotional environment will be harmonic to the footprints left behind by the masses. Below is our first attempt to harness that information:

Credit Markets – March 05, 2026

Picture this chart as a simple comparison between risky junk bonds (HYG) and safe government bonds (IEI), but shown as a “spread” or difference that highlights how much extra reward investors demand for taking on risk. When the line on the chart heads down, especially along those important grey trend lines, it means junk bonds are losing value faster than safe ones—investors are getting nervous and preferring security over high returns. Right now, with interest rates appearing to rise (making borrowing more expensive for companies), this downward trend could signal bigger problems in the credit markets, where businesses rely on loans to operate. Higher rates squeeze companies with lots of debt, and if they struggle to pay, it might lead to more defaults, just like we’ve seen in past economic rough patches.

Recent news from early 2026 is buzzing with worries about the private credit market, a massive $2-3 trillion area where non-bank lenders provide loans to businesses. For instance, experts fear the private credit bubble is about to pop due to rising investor withdrawals and firms like Blue Owl selling off loans to meet demands. Private credit stocks are signaling more pain ahead, with market volatility adding to the stress. Concerns are growing over the market’s rapid expansion and risks, especially in a higher-rate environment exposing weaknesses. Blue Owl’s recent stumble is reviving fears of a Bear Stearns-like moment, with default rates jumping. Investors are anxious about cracks in private credit, driven by AI pressures on sectors like software and broader economic uncertainty. If rising rates keep pushing this spread lower, it could mean tougher times for the economy, so watch how companies manage their debts

I will be watching the two ‘grey’ trendlines … a daily close below the lowest trend line (dashed) will definitely make the hairs on the back of my head stand up.