The last time I posted about the Transports they were finishing measured moves and the target w/ in around 9700-9800. The index blew thru that area after some consolidation and tapped out around 11, 500. We now have a very nice pattern taught to me by Larry Pesavento – the 1-3-5 and it appears that the index is starting back down. There are two interpretations that I’m showing – 1 is very bearish and the other is very bullish. Either way, in the near term, I expect a pullback and if we get a BUY pattern I’ll buy w/ a stop and if we get a SELL pattern I’ll sell w/ a stop. I’m a pattern dude do I’ll just wait and see …
Kind of cool that the price projection from the all time low from the 1930’s was 1.68179 (F#) and we stopped on the .68179 retracement. In the world I live in (you might not, so don’t worry about it or believe) what’s that usually telling me is the ‘index’ is respecting (OK vibrating) to that ratio and it’s inverse …
The bullish case is that we stopped at exactly the same price point as we did every other time since this powerful move began in the early 2000’s …
hope you have had a good weekend.
have been pretty silent about gold as it has gone up and down and up and down again and again … and, most recently, it’s started back down. folks, this is a complicated correction in Gold. And, mind you, its just that – a CORRECTION in a multi year down trend. here’s the thesis – we are the last wave of a contracting triangle which will then cause a very very strong move to the upside .. but, for now, I believe that will end a C wave and the a-b (triangle) – c correction will be over and another leg down in Gold will begin. now, mind you – this is going to all take months or a year or so to complete but it’s the best interpretation that I can think of, for now … so, near term, if your bullish (which I am near term and am already long) get ready to BUY gold once this ‘e’ leg of the a-b-c-d-e triangle is complete.
the last time I blogged by IWM was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/05/17/iwm-caveat-emptor-and-check-out-where-price-hovered-today-in-my-p-s-below-cool/
we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …
03/17/2018 – I was asked to do an update on $TWLO from a friend and noticed that it has continued to have amazing strength during the sell off a little while ago and during this rally. I also remember doing this intial $TWLO post and thinking, I should show readers/myself the length of the dashed purple price projection .. honestly, I was just too lazy.
Anyway, I went back today and redid the VP and wanted to show the scaling was completely different this time BUT the vectors still came out ‘pretty much’ around the same length …it’s fractal baby. that’s all I can say .. so, I pretty much wanted to show that scaling is ALWAYS an issue but if you do some of the work and the chart shows you it’s respecting’ish the work by support and resistance then go w/ it .. NEVER use the VP as a stand alone technique (I certainly don’t) but use it as affirmation that yes, the market does in fact vibrate and these vectors prove it. at least they do for me …
so, anyway, now you can see the purple vector and then I did some square of nine price and time work (just calendar days), did some patterns (3 drive to a top) and then, yes, (shoot me) I threw a little planet stuff in there looking for similarities in the IPO date and last Friday/Monday … find it interesting as we are approaching the Vernal Equinox, new moon/super moon we have a lot of ‘other’ stuff converging on Twilio ($TWLO)
as always, let me know if you have any questions. I would watch for a weekly SRC to potentially protect profits on this one .. mind you, it has, in the past, gapped up over these targets also. all probability.
My dear friend Larry from www.tradingtutor.com.com sent this over so I just fooled around w/ the Bladder of the Fish. The 3 drives looks nice AND the time and price of our vectors sure seems to point at resistance ahead!
05/19/2019 as you can see below, the buy zone was defeated by just a bit but, ultimately, it proved to be good support and the ratio is going UP which shows a risk off mindset w/ regards to the institutions. keep an eye on this ratio as it’s very important and can give us a heads up w/ regard to the overall health of the market.
I put the MONTHLY chart in there to show the much bigger pattern that completed at the lows.
02/28/2019 update: well, the target area shown in the original post was shown and held, somewhat. as the bouncing around started to happen from January 22, 2019 till Feb 21, 2019 it certainly created a nice triangle from the classic EWT. a-b-c-d-e and a resumption of the downtrend. We have rallied a little bit after the breakdown from the triangle (they usually occur in 4th waves – a guideline NOT a rule) so we have either finished or have one more sequence lower to finish – what I believe to be a zig-zag like correction.
if this analysis is correct, then we will bottom NOW or a little lower and the ratio will start to rise.
what does that mean? it USUALLY means stocks will start to sell off.
we are at a key/crucial juncture ..charts below
to show you the ‘power’ of this ratio, I’ve updated a 4 hour intraday chart of the xlp/nazzie ratio (candles) and the nazzie INVERTED (blue line) to show the synchronicity and how well they shake and jive together. note: every inflection point is timed almost exactly. THAT IS WHY THIS RATIO IS SO KEY and HELPS WITH RISK CONTROL
if you have been following me for a while you will know that I really trust PATTERNS and also ratio’s w/ the patterns.
in this case, we have a near PERFECT BUY pattern on our XLP/NASDAQ ratio. Which means, the Staples (a source of risk off for the institutions) ‘should’ start outperforming the NASDAQ from a relative strength basis which ‘should’ cause the NASDAQ to sell off .. IF and ONLY IF the PATTERN works. As you can see below, we have two levels to watch (the one we are at right now) and then one a little bit lower …
my guess (as I NEVER know which pattern will or won’t work) is that the next sell off will occur ‘here’ or the other target a little lower. if we blow thru them w/ power and they fail then it might be game on again .. but let’s not get too hopeful yet. let’s see what our patterns do on the ratio first …
Well, the support level shown in my last post was defeated on Friday. We also closed ‘below’ old resistance so it looks like ‘polarity’ didn’t work here. All I’m trying to do is find the ‘bounce’ area as cycles suggest into end of January/early Feb.
So, here’s some targets on the NYSE Index that I’ll be targeting over the coming weeks ..
let me know if you have any questions.
PS – got out in the water today. The swells have been PUMPING of late in SoCal. Good clean living folks, good clean living.