Pay attention to EXTREMES April 29, 2026
Just saying folks …
INTC – really? I mean look at that move !! It blew thru the ABCD but has now hit the EXTREME measured move that took the mania into the tech high of the 2000’s … hmmmmm. I’ve got some extension and projection targets higher as shown BUT the point is, look at that EXTREME move …hmmm.
But wait, there’s more! Anyone seen or heard about the Dow Jones Transportation Average?
and, well look at that, here comes the price of gasoline! What an EXTREME move …
So, from a socio-economic perspective I just wonder, what the underlying vibration is to cause such EXTREME behavior. Not sure anyone remembers but just a few weeks ago we had a planetary parade and a major alignment of many of our planets … I’ll let you draw your own conclusions from that statement.
Perhaps, to put in my good friend, Ponch’s parlance, perhaps some sort of ‘outside behavior’ was given a snapshot in time to reorient us into extremes.
We’ve seen these patterns before my friends. You know it and you feel it.
If you are long and have been running w/ the bulls I’d stay w/ it … there is a probable (flip the coin) chance this puppy could explode in a parabolic lift off.
If you are trying to chase it and get in … i wouldn’t enter here. People who have been long will have an opportunity to evaluate a stop loss and control losses IF this is a big pullback. Getting in now, COULD be like getting in right at or near the top. Sorry, might need to wait this out and go look at Bonds or some commodity plays,. (Silver and Gold are going to make new highs again .. I”m watching that one closely, just haven’t been posting about it. Just not yet is what I’m thinking ..we’ll know in a week or two. This will – more than likely be a BIG MOVE just due to the geopolitical nature around us.
For those looking to short, just have to be patient. Just waiting on a GOOD LONG TERM sell pattern. And that’s the point. A LOT of the long term patterns to short the market have failed. So, don’t be surprised if this market propels higher. Just have to wait.
And, one last example. KABOOM and off we go … show me – one time – where a take off like this has not led to a spectacular crash. Folks, it’s taking off parabolic so, again, if your riding this wave stay on it – it could go for a year or more w/ this chaos and emotion BUT be quick to bail because it’s close to some targets. Else, just wait … off she goes!
Markets – April 27, 2026
BLUF: I am still in a defensive mindset and will remain so until a SELL PATTERN is triggered on the XLP/NYA or the low that was made a few weeks ago is taken out to the downside.
The technology sector continues to launch into the upper limits of a historic run. My good friend, Larry P (www.tradingtutor.com) put out his weekly newsletter and yesterday he wrote:
“The Sox index has been up 18 days in a row. The odds of this
happening are over 300 to 1. The S&P 500 broke all records this
week by going up for 15 days in a row. That’s the most since
records began in 1897. In the last 126 years, it’s only happened
four times.”
He also put out this chart around the ‘expected’ cycles for the rest of the year:
Here’s the expected cycle for the S&P 500:
So, when we look at the NASDAQ what do we see:
From the all time low in/around 55 we project w/ the ‘black’ line and we have a target zone just a little higher. Additionally, we project w/ the ‘orange’ line and the ‘blue’ line from the 2002 low we get the same target zone. The entire band is around 4% so w/ the cycle shown on the SemiConductor Index and the targets on the NASDAQ, I expect significant resistance.
Most of the targets derived have been resistance but nothing has stopped it for a big correction.
Above is the Global Dow … measured moves hit, perfectly. Take note, each time we have completed a measured move in PRICE (blue arrows) the market has corrected, at a minimum 16 months. Over a year folks …this has happened EVERY year for the past 25 years. If you look at the one measured move (between waves 4 and 5) you will see a very sharp correction after the initial top and then blast off into the latest resistance. Is this going to happen again? Believe we will see, soon.
S&P 500, above, hitting 4.236 price projection from initial seed vector – all time low to high in 2007. Note, the gap left behind on the daily is, supposedly, one of the largest gaps ever.
Here’s our trusty ratio .. take note, it has NOT made new lows even though some indices continue to climb the wall of worry … overall, I would be defensive w/ stocks and not chase this market … until we take out the low on the ratio (green shaded area) be careful.
The DJ Transports took off to smack right into a 50 year trend channel (log) and has immediately reversing …
As we have discussed, many times here, the Banks/Financials lead us UP and lead us DOWN. Right now, the XLF has NOT made new highs.
NASDAQ Banking Index … no new highs.
In the fixed income world, our opinion has not changed. One more thrust lower out of the multi year triangle and then major support at the .618 retracement from the 1981 low.
The rally cries for the demise of the dollar and all that … not seeing it as long as we stay above the 93.50 zone shown below, I’m a dollar bull.
The semi-conductor industry has been exploding …
We need to pay attention to Taiwan. The New Taiwan Dollar has shown some correlation to the Philadelphia SOX index:
As for the alternative digital currencies, I’m still looking for lower. Folks, again, if my count is correct we have FINISHED a 5 wave sequence, which I’m calling wave 1 and we are correcting in wave 2. If you are a bull for Bitcoin, I would still wait.
Folks, Gasonline prices aren’t going down anytime soon ….they shot out of the wedge and BOOM off to the races. Can’t see this slowing down for now.
Crude Oil – April 8, 2026
Apologize for being absent for so long during this volatile time. Honestly, moved into a new start up doing amazing things and, while I’ve certainly had my one eye on the market every day, I really haven’t been paying attention to it because, well, even though a TON of long term targets were hit and the volatility is pretty wild, it really HASN’T broken down …yet. I say yet, not as a fatalist, not at all. But just from the fact that our brothers and sisters in Egypt are w/out power – right now. Yup, they cut it. Look it up … Over in Asia, fuel shortages and rationing and minimal work days. The supply chain has been severely disrupted folks and, once again, if you are in the US we are sitting pretty – for now – due to our energy independence and a host of other things. And, trust me, that’s just me looking at it objectively. This is going create a rougher patch than the ‘glancing flesh wounds’ that are hitting peeps here and there … in the immortal words of the Dude “well, that’s your opinion man …” Yup and that is all it is …
So, w/ all the emotion flowing around I thought I’d take a look at Crude. Haven’t looked at it for a LONG time. Why? Mostly, because I didn’t know what to do w/ that -40 ish price. Yeah, no kidding … but, tonight, I just went “screw it, that was a price, so it counts.” Certainly appears to work …
What’s pretty amazing? In the height of, one would say, emotions like those who remember living thru 9-11, this conflict with Iran ranks up there in the “big deal” world. Guess what, the ratio’s and patterns are present throughout the conflict! Don’t believe me? See below … fractals peeps, it’s all fractals.
Ultimately, we will realize that the ‘seed’ is EVERYTHING. That initial measured move vector from an IPO or a big low or high contains the ‘DNA’ for that security. It has to be that way … just like the entire universe, that DNA creates a harmonic musical representation of the vibrational interactions of anything or anyone interested in said security at the quantum level which then creates the summation vibration of those emotions represented in price and time. Guess what, nature does the same thing …
So, after letting the emotional vibration play out in both fear and euphoria …they have left us THE seed to now manage risk in this insane environment. You see what happened there …? While you go thru the same emotions as those actually trying to trade these insanely volatile moods, you contribute to the footprint that is being left on the charts but you have the discipline to wait. So, you wait for the emotions – for this particularly security of Crude Oil Continuous Futures – to form the measured moves which are now your graphical representation of – get this – the vibration associated w/ crude oil and this current conflict. Yup …
Now, ALL futures moves in this emotional environment will be harmonic to the footprints left behind by the masses. Below is our first attempt to harness that information:
Credit Markets – March 05, 2026
Picture this chart as a simple comparison between risky junk bonds (HYG) and safe government bonds (IEI), but shown as a “spread” or difference that highlights how much extra reward investors demand for taking on risk. When the line on the chart heads down, especially along those important grey trend lines, it means junk bonds are losing value faster than safe ones—investors are getting nervous and preferring security over high returns. Right now, with interest rates appearing to rise (making borrowing more expensive for companies), this downward trend could signal bigger problems in the credit markets, where businesses rely on loans to operate. Higher rates squeeze companies with lots of debt, and if they struggle to pay, it might lead to more defaults, just like we’ve seen in past economic rough patches.
Recent news from early 2026 is buzzing with worries about the private credit market, a massive $2-3 trillion area where non-bank lenders provide loans to businesses. For instance, experts fear the private credit bubble is about to pop due to rising investor withdrawals and firms like Blue Owl selling off loans to meet demands. Private credit stocks are signaling more pain ahead, with market volatility adding to the stress. Concerns are growing over the market’s rapid expansion and risks, especially in a higher-rate environment exposing weaknesses. Blue Owl’s recent stumble is reviving fears of a Bear Stearns-like moment, with default rates jumping. Investors are anxious about cracks in private credit, driven by AI pressures on sectors like software and broader economic uncertainty. If rising rates keep pushing this spread lower, it could mean tougher times for the economy, so watch how companies manage their debts
I will be watching the two ‘grey’ trendlines … a daily close below the lowest trend line (dashed) will definitely make the hairs on the back of my head stand up.
NO WAY OUT – February 18,2026
Posted on February 18, 2026 Leave a Comment
Folks, if you haven’t tuned into one of Ponch and Moose’s podcast, certainly recommend you do.
They recently had my friend/mentor Larry P on for a master class on fractals, sacred geometry and patterns.
Larry has been actively trading for over 50 years now – probably longer than some of you might be alive.
Worth the listen folks …
Hat tip Ponch, Moose and, of course, Larry:
