I found this interesting … BABA vs AMZN

I love ratio analysis … X/Y.  If X stronger then the chart goes up and if Y is stronger then the chart goes down.

the AMZN/BABA ratio is showing some signs of a coming bounce in the strength of AMZN vs BABA:

  • .618 retracement from the all time low of the ratio
  • a ‘basic’ minimum downside projection from the neckline of the ratio
  • bullish divergence on the weekly RSI …

as you can see … AMZN took the strength from BABA for about a year .. then they were neck-in-neck (shown as the H+S developing) then in June 2017 BABA took off and started to outperform …

will be interesting to watch … found it interesting this morning.

Bart

Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED and UPDATED again and UPDATED again

09/17/2017 – well, as you know, the SELL PATTERN on the NYSE Index got smoked ..NOTE the gap UP RIGHT AT THE PATTERN LEVEL. that’s a failed pattern …

now, the XIV has hit the target zone but I’ve updated it based on the most recent action. It has NOT made a new high and is still in the zone for a SELL XIV or “BUY” Volatility.  Stay tuned ….

If you go the XLP / $NYA chart you can see a little lower on that ratio could push the XIV up and into the next zone for the sell.  All best are off if we daily close above “wrong above here” or, if you want just a little more risk above the hold high on the XIV.

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09/04/2017 –  as you can see by the chart below the XIV is forming a ‘classic’ sell signal.  If you look closely (not labeled here) we can see a 5 wave count down. w/ this rally, we should expect another wave lower.  that’s what ‘should’ happen BUT you never know.

we have:

  • dashed red arrows showing equal rallies completed on Friday
  • we have a PATTERN that shows 86.26-86.88 as completing a the sell PATTERN
  • if we blow thru there then the 91.22 area is next and anything above 94 (daily close?) tells me we are going higher in the XIV

probability, therefore risk control, calls for another sell-off to occur in the XIV and, albeit, soon.

also, note the SAME fractal pattern is present on the $NYSE Index.

Happy Labor Day.

Bart

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07/30/2017 – we are entering August w/ volatility AT THE ALL TIME low – ever.  We also have some pretty cool eclipses coming into play.  No kidding, this eclipse is going to be the first one since the inception of the United States that it only goes all the way across our country.  Some serious energy is going to be hitting the continental US.

that being said, you can see we were looking at 88-90 ish as potential targets for the XIV but also noted the ‘big candle’ warranted caution for a top/resistance.

we plowed thru those two targets and now have a weekly doji sitting around 93.  why did it stop there?

when going to targets I always like to go long term log and also use percentage projections. as you can see if we do a .618ab=cd on the percentage distance it hit the high exactly.

additionally we are also hitting some long term log resistance lines – NOTE I bracketed the gap to come up w/ a zone of resistance.

we have some negative divergence but I really want to keep an eye on that rising dashed green trend line on the RSI …that’s pretty much been running the show…

So, I’m still in the mindset that a correction is coming … mindful to wait for an SRC before jumping in on the LONG VIX or short XIV opportunity.

 


 

07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs.  Sheesh!  But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …

Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception.  Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.

NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …

this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:

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XLP / $NYA – wow, what a “perfect” sell pattern on the ratio – means BUY equities (if it fails, watch out) UPDATE

09/17/2016 – as you can see below, this SELL the ratio (BUY THE NYA Index) worked very nicely.  Again, for those of you new to my blog the concept is this:

  • Me or You individually don’t do a darn thing to move the market.  It’s the INSTITUTIONS that make the market.  When they get ‘risk adverse’ they move into ‘stuff’ we need to live .. aka Staples (XLP)
  • Using ratio analysis – in this case XLP (ETF) / NYSE Index (the largest index out there) we can see what ‘they’ (the collective they) are thinking …
    • IF the ratio is going UP then XLP (Staples) are stronger than the overall market … read: the institutions are moving into ‘conservative names’ and are “risk adverse.’
    • IF the ratio is going DOWN then XLP (Staples) are weaker than the overall  market…read: the institutions are moving out of ‘conservative names’ and are ‘risk on.’
    • Using PATTERNS we can ‘see’ potential inflection points for the ratio and make investments accordingly.

In the charts below we can see:

  • POLARITY – during the 2007-2009 drop, you can see that the ratio EXPLODED higher and promptly ran into major resistance. This level held for years but was finally broken thru  in/around 2015-2016.
    • The polarity principle is former R becomes Support (and vice versa) so the red arrows turn into green arrows (representing Support)
    • Based on the current length and (my opinion) an overextended market the probability of this ratio stopping at the blue highlighted region is more (again my opinion) than the ratio slicing thru this area.
      • IF it does THEN the lower level (highlighted orange) is the next logical stop.
  • ‘Basic’ Trend line channel … note we are approaching the lower portion of it
  • Multiple retracement levels – the .382 from the all time low of 2008 is key
  • An RSI finding monthly support which began every move UP in the ratio.
    • note the second chart below and what this did to the NYSE Index.
  • We have measured moves (solid and dashed blue arrows) showing the ‘largest’ corrective move in the ratio since inception
    • Note: the dashed blue line is using the “close” and not the wicks that tried to get thru this key level on the ratio

One last chart … note, IF the ratio is BULLISH then we have (again all probability) been carving out an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction labeled below.

  • w/ this type of correction the ‘C’ wave is sometimes 1.618*’A’ which you can see nicely hits where 1=5 of the C wave.  So, shown below in the light blue shaded area are potential zones for the reversal.

So, monitor this ratio for a weekly signal reversal candle (bullish) and this should market a correction .. .I’m not calling for a crash or a bear market or any of that … it’s about ‘time’ for a nice thump.  How deep it goes…? No idea but I’ll certainly be watching this ratio to give me a heads up on where to buy.

Here’s the DAILY ratio w/ NYSE Index overlaid on top of the ratio … note the ‘SELL RATIO’ and ‘BUY EQUITIES’ …this ratio works.

Here’ the MONTHLY NYSE Index:

I did a .786 AB-CD projection from the all time low in 1974 and that hit the 1.27 extension (monthly) – where we are right now.  Also, take note of the blue arrows … doing a count where 1=5 we get to 12,500 ish. So, again, would expect some sort of resistance to be forming – albeit soon.

one last … folks 2 weeks till quarter end. I hate to add opinion here but do you really think THEY (the big guys/gals) are really going to sell this market as we approach an AWESOME quarter end? Ummmmm, not I.  So, the real shenanigans should start the first week of October, if at all …

hope you have had and are having a good weekend.

Bart

 

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here’s the power of this ratio:

DANGER WILL ROBINSON … if/when the patterns fail (and they do) the market breathes in the direction of the failure. Note, we have some VERY strong thrust into the pattern level and this “usually” means the pattern will fail BUT you never know do you? So now for the best part of the pattern recognition world the “if-then”.

IF the pattern works, equities should bottom for a nice BUY (swing trade – not long term for now … )

IF the pattern fails, equities will continuing selling off and we should look for the NEXT pattern to play … make sense?

Here’s the “perfect” sell pattern:

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BITCOIN Investment Trust … why did it stop today? UPDATE to the UPDATE to the Update (I like doing these updates)

09/16/2017 – note the 55% correction and the AB-CD pattern which caused the move up late last week.  the 680 level is the KEY level to watch for resistance moving forward.  more updates to follow … amazing, even in the midst of this chaos of a bubble, the ‘log’ percentage retracements and the AB-CD worked (perfectly) all based on PATTERNS.

if you don’t this is a crazy bubble then check out this graph … a friend forwarded from the Elliot Wave Theory (www.ElliottWave.com ) … this is an AMAZING chart. I’m not making the case of the utility of bitcoin. No, I’m just showing the PRICE of BITCOIN is of epic bubble proportions.  CAVEAT EMPTOR.

Not sure how long this will explode higher BUT when it REALLY falls (is this the start?) it’s going to come down – hard.

Good weekend to you.

Bart


 

09/03/2017 – Update as of Sunday 09/03/2017.  Folks, sometimes the PATTERNS/numbers work and sometimes they don’t.  This time, appears the numbers we respected and we had a very large sell-off in $GBTC.  Stay defensive for now .. a move into the high 400’s isn’t out of the question after such a parabolic run.

Good weekend to all … B

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08/31/2017 – well Barron’s nailed the high in the US Dollar Index declaring the “Mighty Dollar” but this one hasn’t been as reliable as  the ‘top or bottom’ caller when something makes the front page.

so, below you’ll see an updated Bitcoin Investment Trust update … sure looks like it’s hitting some strong resistance.  Still believe this is an accident waiting to happen …

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07/02/2017 – Barron’s .. the ultimate contrarian indicator.  🙂 For the time being, at least, we still have the upper target out there and, additionally, the corrective sequence sure looks like it wants another move down. CAVEAT EMPTOR

Bart

 

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05/25/2017 – I hate to do the ‘could have and would have and should have’ when using charts. Those of you who have been following me know that. I wanted to get to this chart before the open to just give it a shot … was on travel and in the airport yesterday and I kept seeing the PARABOLIC ROCKET SHIP of BITCOIN …couldn’t wait to throw some geometry on the chart.

When we see parabolic moves – THINK LOGS.  It’s why the darn things were created in the first place.

As you can see below .. we are stretched and could go higher but today it ran smack into a LOG AB=CD and a key LOG trend line .. resistance was to be expected. You can also see – and why not – that there is another set of targets higher.  I’ve also included the NYSE Bitcoin index … it’s data isn’t updated yet but you can see that it also ran smack into the GRAVITY CENTER. (I used the technique taught to us in elementary school on how to make a circle using three points. (dead serious).  Again, for you my loyal readers, I didn’t know if it would work. You get to the point where you can ‘see it’ …

For now … man, it’s great to get on the rocket ship and ride it but there was always a REASON we landed w/ 2000 lbs of gas.  Always .. because if you ran out of gas, your screwed. When parabolic blast off end they don’t end w/ a whimper .. .they THUMP hard.

Caveat Emptor for the Bitcoin craze ….

Bart

MSFT – two long term projections complete. “Make or Break” next week …

09/16/2017 – MSFT has hit and, as of now, closed above (albeit slightly) above the long term price projection levels. Next week will ‘make or break’ in my mind this monstrous bull run.  IF this puppy stops in/around here would wait for a monthly SRC (signal reversal candle) to make any move .. that’s roughly a WEEKLY close below 73.  Also, threw some volume up to see if they are buying this puppy like crazy … note, the steady decrease in volume during this run …

so, it’s only probability so waiting for the euphoria/chaos to end via a SRC seems appropriate.

Monthly:

Daily:

as you can see we have  TIME symmetrical 3 drives to a top and what appears to be a potential ending diagonal. note the SRC level (monthly) and also note the ‘long term’ projected price level. we are basically there …

Happy hunting … all probability.

Good weekend.

B

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06/30/2017 – end of the month, that’s not a bullish candle now is it … monitor this one closely. We do still have that upper target, but that might be all she wrote for the time being.

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06/13/2017 – “still in play” has been  hit which equals a 1.27 and AB-CD on a monthly. Note, the ‘big AB-CD’ from the all time low is around 75.  That could still be hit. Wait for a monthly SRC (monthly close below 68) to close or short, I believe.

Back in the saddle .. been a great time off marrying off my first daughter.

Bart

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03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs.  below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance.  if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.

now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009.  lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:

  • blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
  • the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
  • the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
  • note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
  • on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry

so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here.  a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.

the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?

stay tuned.

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10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist.  inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion.  yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs.  but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars.  nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….

so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.

page_16-10-20_19-56-22

note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.

enjoy.

Bart



Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance.  Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump.  But … a PATTERN is  a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.

BUY on MSFT in March 2009

BUY on MSFT in March 2009

so, where are we now?

we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting.  Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion.  (note – 50-52 is still a target.)

MSFT approaching resistance zones - watch closely or take some off the table

MSFT approaching resistance zones – watch closely or take some off the table

 

now the 6th update on the US Dollar

09/12/2017 – since the last Dollar post in May got smoked I stepped back and let this puppy run.  I’m still in the “I don’t know camp’ with regard to the dollar finishing a multi year A-B-C advance and this is the beginning of the end for the US Dollar (low probability) OR we have finished a 3 w/ another 5 to go …

but that being said where are we now:

  • deeply oversold
  • hit a .5 but most importantly the .382 retracement from the all time low
  • note a ‘basic’ – not perfect – time cycle working out .. shows “now-ish” to be a potential low and the next move to come?
  • RSI is the lowest since the all time low in 2008
  • we have measured moves (dashed blue arrows) hitting our current level

so, believe it’s time to watch the USD Rally .. note, in all of the highlighted boxes it took weeks IF not months for the USD Index to consolidate and start moving higher.  No reason to believe this won’t happen again as it certainly appears time. Here’s the weekly:

On a MONTHLY chart it’s key to look at the RSI for a hint of the support …

  • note the top dashed red line – that is RESISTANCE in, thus far a long term BEAR MARKET in the USD Index. Again – LONG TERM.  While we did spike above it briefly, we have still been contained to the upside.
  • Note the dashed green lines .. basically, at these levels, the USD (if it was to go up) has found support and began higher. We have a little lower to go (perhaps this will set up a bullish divergence on the weekly) but we are basically at the level where the dollar needs to get going higher or we break critical support …
  • the KEY LEVEL in all of this is basically 88-90.  If we are doing a 1–2-3-4 then we can’t go below that on a monthly close.  That will mean here comes a 5 and the dollar starts up now’ish. If we have completed an A-B-C correction from 2008 (a possible case) then, after a slight bounce, we will penetrate those two read lines and things could get really ugly.

so, if a dollar bull, start looking to work it in around these levels.

Bart


 

05/29/2017 – warning, this is going to get geeky.  sorry …

first chart below is of the Euro. Much like the Chief, sure appears that it’s ‘time’ for the dollar to rally. Note below, the time component of the rally off the lows.  folks, this isn’t easy and I’ve talked to multiple people this weekend about “is the dollar toast” or is the “king dollar going to roar again”.  I DO NOT KNOW … but, in the next couple weeks, w/ sentiment down at 8% dollar bulls we are do for a pause or a dollar rally.

I want to insert this chart on the dollar index, I posted it a couple months ago and it was showing the mathematical harmony.  This is important because the ‘high’ that occurred a couple months ago ‘made sense’ in terms of resistance.  the math was perfect …

but here is the rub … have we completed an Elliott Wave corrective A-B-C and the dollar is toast OR are we correcting 4 of 5 right now …?

So, if you read below we looked for May 2017 to be a cycle and so far it has worked … that being said, I apologize again but I need to go do a little “Elliott stuff” to get a picture for the roadmap.

Some background: I am a CMT and w/ that designation comes a modicum of understanding of Elliott Wave. (it’s a requirement)  That being said I also trained under the Master Constance Brown (http://aeroinvest.com/) not once but twice!  (she also told me at one point to never count a wave again ) … to add to that I actually taught the CMT (i) Level III Elliott Wave online to hundreds of students.  What’s that mean … I love Elliott Wave – when it works!  (Work w/ me folks, that was supposed to be funny.)

Elliott Wave rules of the road:

  • Trust and do not break the RULES.  There are only 3 ….
    • Wave 3 can’t be the shortest
    • Wave 2 cannot go below/above Wave 1
    • Wave 4 cannot overlap ANY of Wave 1.
  • Master the corrections …
    • Triangles, Flats, Expanded Flats, Zig-Zag, W-X-Y, double and triple threes
  • Learn to recognize B waves .. (hint – they are always 3 waves)
  • Learn to recognize a 3rd of a 3rd (read: thrust)
  • Learn to use and trust LONG TERM (monthly and weekly) Elliott Wave counts … intraday is hard as hell.
  • DO NOT USE Elliott in isolation …ever.  use a MA, oscillator, price targets, RSI, etc. etc.

So, there you have it … it’s a very helpful tool (that’s all it is) and it’s NOT the panacea. it’s a tool folks …

but, it’s important right now w/ regard to the dollar index.

here’s the BEARISH VIEW – we finished an A-B-C correction (note on the cycle month) and down she goes …

here’s the BULLISH VIEW – we just finished 3 and are correcting in 4 and a new high on the USD is to be made w/ a 5 up ….

so, here’s where I really think we are:

  • I want us to notice the 3rd of a 3rd action below.  That certainly makes me think we just finished the 3 ….
  • Note the ‘range’ transition that occurred w/ the RSI – if we are patient enough on a LONG TERM charts the RSI will ‘tell you’ when it moves from the bearish to bullish ranges or vice versa.  in this case … believe we moved up into the bullish zone and the dollar will, in due time, continue to advance higher after this correction (is it ending?)
  • Dollar Bulls are at 8%

so, in conclusion, I see patterns and sentiment that call for a dollar low/rally.  as this rally progresses it will take on 5 waves or 3 waves and then a PATTERN to SELL DOLLARS will appear.  IF it fails THEN the dollar rallies and IF it works then the dollar fails and we could be at the A-B-C TOP and the dollar is really really going to take it on the chin.

It’s all probability folks … that’s all it is.  I HAVE NO IDEA which way it will go and really don’t care. Give it a shot and use a stop.

Bart

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05/17/2017 – well here we go … as you will see we are sitting on the BOTTOM of the BUY RANGE PATTERN that we have been waiting for….some STRONG THRUST DOWN so that begs caution.  BUT, note the TIME component of the 3 drives the symmetry is pretty awesome.

so – pause/wait and IF the dashed red trend line is taken out to the upside on a WEEKLY CLOSE (98.50) then perhaps the next big run has begun.

Bart

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05/07/2017 – Happy “insert name here” day … have you noticed that Social Media is making a “insert name here” day for everything?  So, for me, I say “Happy Dollar Index Update” day … as an FYI, that’s May 7, 2017.

Anyhoo – man this is getting interesting.  I’ve updated both the 4 hour and the monthly since Plaza chart below.

Let’s pay attention to 3 things:

  • the level shown back on April Fools Day is now even more important. As you can see below, we now have 2 projections into the same area, we have a 3 drives to a bottom forming and have added another ratio to this area.  WOW ..kind of important.
  • on the monthly, notice the blue rectangle w/ time above/below it.  That represents, in months, the EXACT time it took to rally after falling from 164 and it hit – exactly – from the rally low in 2008 to now. The key here is that it hit right at a very powerful PRICE relationship.  it was an exact 1.618 price projection relationship.  Very well could have finished A-B-C Elliott Wave correction – we simply don’t know yet … is this a 3 or a C.  (that’s the big deal)
  • also, on the monthly, note the cycle we started from 1985. It’s smacking right into May (now) and so …it DID NOT rally up into the ‘target zone’ ID’d and it’s finishing an important BUY pattern in the 98-99 area.  IF THIS HOLDS and rallies us UP into the target zone we still have to consider this to be a BIG resistance area ALONG w/ time so …

W/ all of this going on AND w/ the French doing the elections right now believe this will resolve – SOON.

WATCH 98-99 level for the first chess move to occur … hope this helps.

 

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04/01/2017 – Happy April Fools Day!

per below, the US Dollar Index smacked right into our target …but, the PATTERN certainly looks like one more wave ahead. Then, well, things are going to get really interesting!  Next stop is more than likely 106-108 on the index.

it’s quite clear to see 5 waves completing up into that area …

also, was ‘hoping’ for a deeper correction as shown on the dollar index but the ‘fundamental frequency’ stopped it and, for now, probability says a low is in place for the USD and it should vault higher in the coming weeks.

one last, on the chart below, note the cycle tops from 1985, 2001 line up in May 2015.

Going to get really interesting.

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1/14/2017 – if your into harmonics and patterns, then read below. If you just want the bottom line up font (BLUF) then read this: WAIT to do anything on the US Dollar.

 

unnamed

Obviously, I’m “called” or “attracted” to a movie like this because of the amazing synchronicity to ‘string theory’ and ‘time’ … so if I really want to go ‘deep’, so to speak, I will play a soundtrack like this w/ only this music in the background and a chart …

what’s most important .. ? where are we now ..,

  • there is BEARISH RSI divergence on the monthly
  • the TIME component (a big deal) is EXACTLY equal to the last major rally in the index since the Plaza Accord
  •  the most recent high is a 1.1618 projection and EXACTLY .786 the rally from 1995-2201 – EXACTLY
  • we have RECORD NEGATIVE/BEARISH sentiment for the EURO (a major component of the index)
  • see blog and note the cycles on the POUND and the AUSSIE and LOONIE
  • note: the RSI ‘transition’ to higher support zones … that’s bullish

So, UNFORTUNATELY, my friend we need to WAIT and IF (the big IF ) every thing is to come together then we should see support come in around 92-95 to get long on the dollar.

Bart

PS – you read it here … I’m REALLY ‘believing’ (not supposed to do that) that the $$$ will find support in/around the areas sighted below. BUT .. if you try and SEE the picture that’s painted .. this COULD BE A MONSTROUS $$$ TOP. How will we know …. no flipping idea. You guys/gals tell me ….

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12/30/2016 – updating the US Dollar Index post

  • bearish divergence – check
  • 1.618 price projection hit – is this an a-b-c correction and the dollar has peaked? Potentially … or is wave 3 of 5 concluding w/ a pull back imminent?
  • SENTIMENT is extreme bearish for the EURO and GOLD
  • note – we are hitting the same TIME correction in a couple days as the move up from 1992-2001
  • Economist .. the best contrarian indicator out there.

CLIFF NOTES: if you read below you’ll see there are other targets higher.  We are approaching the same TIME as the last move up in the dollar against the smash from the Plaza accord so the ‘no brainer’ long dollar trade is one that begs of caution.  Is this THE top in the USD and now we go back below 70?  Don’t know, but a preponderance of evidence suggests STIFF resistance from now into January for the USD.

dollar

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11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog.  the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s.  it’s been a nice run …

is there higher to go … yes.

but then …

here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios.  Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.

also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001.  Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.

last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works.  here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis.  I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:

  • market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
  • the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
    • wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
    • wave 3 can’t be the shortest
    • wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
  • if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
    • here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
    • the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
      • so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.

I honestly have no idea …. 

Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:

  • square root target
  • the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
  • the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
  • EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
  • the .382 from the all time high
  • divergence set up on Monthly RSI
  • ‘other’ extension and retracement targets

Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.

only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.

B

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$TSLA – nice BUY pattern emerging

09/10/2017 – here’s an update to TSLA. I know another 16% drop from current levels seems excessive .. BUT in that area we have polarity, a bunch of ratios and a SQUARE ROOT target. Also, if you look closely, we have a WEEKLY gap from 282-285 to monitor. It’s still open.

Over the coming weeks, would certainly LIKE a drop to occur.

Again, not sure (am never sure) if this will occur.  If we lose the first support/buy level then 240’s is a reasonable next target…a weekly close above 372 would negate this possibility.

Bart

 

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07/06/2017 – as you can see below it appeared that TSLA was ready to run … i apologize for not keeping up with this one and you know i hate to do could have would have should have type of stuff BUT I wanted to show you this near picture perfect butterfly sell pattern.

the power is in the 2 1.618 ratio’s coming together .. we have a projection and an extension lying right on top of each other. That usually equals market magic.

if you don’t believe me, ask the blind man because he saw it also …

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02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA.  Tons going on in my life .. all good.

As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.

Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together.  For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.

WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.

Cheers and rock on, ok?

Bart

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04/05/2016

As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.

so, patterns work and patterns fail.  want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done.  don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.

Bart

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so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.

as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.

in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.

and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level?  3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….

  • pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME.  Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
  • this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.

watch this level closely.

as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.

let me know if you have any questions.

B

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$DIS (Disney) short set up

09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.

Here’s an update:

  • DIS monthly
    • Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
    • Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback.  I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
      • watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
  • DIS daily
    • note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH.  If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.

DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …

Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.

B

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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …

Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS.  Note, the Adams Pitchfork.  I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other.  You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around.  Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move.  We’ve done that …

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next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled.  you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.

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the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.

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Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …

Bart

UTX

was cruising the charts after work today and came across UTX.  3 AB=CD’s on a monthly usually cause resistance.  which, it appears they have … note, when you multiply 1.05946*AB=CD you get the exact high. 1.05946 being the ratio used for the Pythagorean Scale of Music and the 12th root of 2.

anyway, could be a mirror image foldback starting .. stay tuned.

B

Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED and UPDATED again and UPDATED again

09/04/2017 –  as you can see by the chart below the XIV is forming a ‘classic’ sell signal.  If you look closely (not labeled here) we can see a 5 wave count down. w/ this rally, we should expect another wave lower.  that’s what ‘should’ happen BUT you never know.

we have:

  • dashed red arrows showing equal rallies completed on Friday
  • we have a PATTERN that shows 86.26-86.88 as completing a the sell PATTERN
  • if we blow thru there then the 91.22 area is next and anything above 94 (daily close?) tells me we are going higher in the XIV

probability, therefore risk control, calls for another sell-off to occur in the XIV and, albeit, soon.

also, note the SAME fractal pattern is present on the $NYSE Index.

Happy Labor Day.

Bart

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07/30/2017 – we are entering August w/ volatility AT THE ALL TIME low – ever.  We also have some pretty cool eclipses coming into play.  No kidding, this eclipse is going to be the first one since the inception of the United States that it only goes all the way across our country.  Some serious energy is going to be hitting the continental US.

that being said, you can see we were looking at 88-90 ish as potential targets for the XIV but also noted the ‘big candle’ warranted caution for a top/resistance.

we plowed thru those two targets and now have a weekly doji sitting around 93.  why did it stop there?

when going to targets I always like to go long term log and also use percentage projections. as you can see if we do a .618ab=cd on the percentage distance it hit the high exactly.

additionally we are also hitting some long term log resistance lines – NOTE I bracketed the gap to come up w/ a zone of resistance.

we have some negative divergence but I really want to keep an eye on that rising dashed green trend line on the RSI …that’s pretty much been running the show…

So, I’m still in the mindset that a correction is coming … mindful to wait for an SRC before jumping in on the LONG VIX or short XIV opportunity.

 


 

07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs.  Sheesh!  But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …

Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception.  Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.

NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …

this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:

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