11/03/2018 – well our IBM pattern failed and got smoked. As I’ve shown before, the candle on IBM is what a ‘failed pattern’ looks like … so, as you can see below we have another BUY pattern emerging on IBM. It’s got some ‘time’ and ‘price’ to go but I’ll be watching the level shown below as MAJOR support for IBM.
Remember, this is pattern recognition. It’s all probability folks. We NEVER know which one will work or not but we ALWAYS no how much we are wiling to risk and WHERE WE ARE WRONG. In this crazy game, especially in the current volatile market we find ourselves in isn’t that the name of the game …?
Here’s the chart … next.
well, when we last posted, we were looking for the YEN to complete a multi year triangle. holy smokes, it certainly dumped today. the key here, as you will see below, is that it did ‘exactly’ what its supposed to do … in a triangle you look for price correlations that are .618 the preceding leg. in this case, we would look for the ‘d-e’ leg to be .618 (or .68179 (musical note)) of ‘b-c’. Guess what – that is EXACTLY what it did today. as you can see, we hit that relationship and the USD exploded against the YEN. So, IF (and this is a big if) our triangle thesis is the correct the YEN is about to get smoked. Now, mind you – the currency markets are HUGE. something around EVERY equity, commodity, futures and bond markets would have to run every day for 90 days to equal ONE day of liquidity in the FX markets. READ THAT AGAIN. The yards (billions and perhaps of trillions) of moves that were occurring was MASSIVE. Yet, the .618 (.68179) relationship held. so, because of that monstrous thrust into the ‘e’ we need to wait for a retest or a BUY pattern to emerge …unreal folks.
11/19/2018 – revisiting this pattern from the end of October. The levels indicated have NOT been hit so, believe it or not, this is ‘standard’ corrective move in the NYSE Index since 2009. Thus far, every major correction has been the dashed red arrows.
also, we have polarity support area and then we have all kinds of ratio’s coming together – along w/ a BUNCH of projections. so, this area is VERY important. Remember, if we try to filter out the noise and the trend is your friend until the end then WE HAVE TO BUY this level .. perhaps wait for a Signal Reversal Candle but at a minimum believe this is the most crucial support area in 2018.
again, this level hasn’t even been tested yet, so hold on to your hats and everyone just chill … let me know if you have any questions.
note, another lower level has 3 ratio’s coming in (highlighted red) so if we lose the blue, the red is pretty reasonable area for the next target.
I like to draw circles … just work w/ me. how the 1987 low and recent high are connected by geometry
a couple weeks ago I posted this: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/
it was some geometric work I did on JPM and ‘real time’ the top of a circle. I do have a theory of ‘why’ this technique works in projecting support or resistance but I’ll leave that to me and some of my friends. it really doesn’t matter – does it?
i’ve been silent on the blog world for a bunch of reasons .. the main reason is a loss that occurred in my family and I really haven’t felt like doing much. but, the emails have been coming in about the most recent moves.
if you go back and read you’ll find that I was pretty defensive for the entire summer .. did we/me miss some of the last part of these moves – yes but ultimately, the only buy pattern around was ABX and GE. TBT was also a nice play but the chaos of the euphoria just had me step aside.
so in order to get back into it, I put some Enigma on the Spotify and, specifically, Morphing Thru Time .. pretty ‘trip-in-dicular’ to say the least.
I called up the Dow Jones and could just see the connection between the 1987 low and this most recent high. Tops of circles are cool.
F has hit the zone for the projections sighted a few weeks ago. a weekly ‘doji’ has formed but no real bullish divergence. perhaps continue to wait till 4.86 OR a weekly close above 10. all that being said, this area is a BIG deal for Ford (F) ….
Extensions of 1.4142 and 1.1286 (musical note)
looks like $8 cold be big support …
the NYSE Index has a TON of stocks in it and is a very good gauge of the overall health of the market. As you can see there is still a much bigger target (almost perfect – an AB-CD and 1.618 extension on top of each other ON A MONTHLY) out there in/around 14217. But note the blue measured moves … they have been very consistent in causing resistance … so, we might be in for another bigger dump if you look at the daily.
strength should get this puppy moving up to the target mentioned above around the 14,200’s so watch this index closely in the coming days and weeks.
have a great LABOR DAY weekend and enjoy your life …
if you do a search for JPM on this site you’ll see it’s pretty much ‘paused’ at every PATTERN out there but ultimately broke thru and kept going higher w/ strength. Good on em’!
we are again at a PATTERN completing. Top of a circle, 1.618 price projection from the all time low, 2.71828 (natural log (found all over the Great Pyramid OBTW)) extension and some Adams pitch fork trend line stuff ..
so in the world I live in that’s the reason we have stopped in/around the 118 level.
note, when working w/ geometry look at how the market reacted to your work .. the dashed purple circles show how the ‘arc’ was support and when it hit 3 o’clock on the circle it exploded .. this just gives you credence that the arc is being respected.
note on the Adams Pitch fork that the ‘median’ line was responsible for resistance and support along the way up into these levels.
so what’s this all mean? lot’s of math in/around 118 so resistance is expected. is it a top or the top – I have no idea but I’d be watching carefully …