Cliff Notes: they are showing sell patterns and we have visited the correlation of the Defense Index ($DFI // PPA) and GOOG before ….
continuing to work GOOG as one, if note the most, “important” stocks to be watching w/ regards to it’s weighting, psychological effect, etc …click the link below to see previous posts. we are in another zone of targets that “probably won’t” hold it, because as luck would have it his stock is NEVER going to go down.
did some quick geometry, like that of IBB, and it’s looking like GOOG has or is about to “parabolic” … but don’t worry about that because, well, the stock is never going down.
go to the home page and search GOOG. You will quickly see it has been the bane of my existence … tried a short in/around 920 and was SMOKED. looked for another pattern in around 1080 ish and that got SMOKED –so how do you keep the faith of the readers of this blog ?
well, I guess this is the best way.
so there you have it … at one time the PATTERN SAID BUY! 🙂 Folks, all real time, no “could have, would have, should have.” Yeah …but that is the past and that don’t count does it?
so, here’s where we are now — in a very extended and “almost parabolic move up” — so I have come to the conclusion that GOOG will NEVER GO DOWN and JUST KEEP BUYING IT …the stock market always goes up or will always come back so dollar cost average yourself to financial freedom.
this Chartist/Trader is T A P P E D O U T on GOOG …
if you go back some posts you will find a SHORT on GOOG was triend in/around the 922 area based on the classic AB=CD or thunderbolt pattern. It held from May to October and then EXPLODED higher … ouch on that one.
also, if you go back some posts you’ll find the 1080 ish level was next target zone … we went higher than that but now are at another key 1.732 extension (which is a big extension – square root of 3) and it appears to be holding. NOT SURE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN but here are some thoughts:
- MONTHLY historical volume has FALLEN since the IPO. The volume at the bottom of the monthly doesn’t lie … it has steadily gone down.
- the count shown is actually a bullish count. the largest correction w/in GOOG could take it down to 625. it shouldn’t go any lower becasue (4) can’t go below (1)
- the GAP should be targeted initially and, being 75 points wide, should offer MAJOR SUPPORT but, if the old adage rings true, it should get filled, completely. we’ll see about that.
- my contention is if that gap gets closed and broken (they are called windows in the candlestick terminology) then a vacuum into the 600 level doesn’t seem that unlikely?
- a nice, clear wave structure looks like 5 up on the daily are complete.
- note the daily RSI … we do have bearish divergence but we also have the classic M formation and when that neckline of the M gives away, it usually spells a movement upcoming. conversely when we have a W bottom, it’s the breakaway to the top that takes out the neckline and it moves (explodes?) higher.
stay tuned…forecasting a move lower on GOOG (which could be rather sizeable) but ULTIMATELY one which should be bought to make a move UP and THREW these all time highs … could take a while.
questions to me.
I am neither bearish nor bullish. I am a pattern recognition trader that puts everything into the context of human behavior. the rally from 2009 is so over stretched that 2014 will bring, potentially, a down side move of enormous proportions. There I have said it …simply based on the MONTHLY (read long term) SELL PATTERNS present this is going to be a THUMP. If the PATTERNS FAIL (which they do, obviously) then the band will play on … I just don’t see it happening and, quite frankly, i am alone in my thinking.
The bullishness present RIGHT NOW is the most extreme it’s been in the history of the stock market …do you want me to type it again? Here’s a look at the high flyers and, again, I think they will all be lower, significantly. Hope I’m wrong…
GOOG: note the same pattern and measured move that is present. Tried at/around 925 and got my clock cleaned. in prove it mode now … but sure looks done.
AMZN: a 5 wave count is present and I was looking for a top lower, but got run over by the euphoria present in the market. this doesn’t change the count, it’s just going to hurt that much more …
PCLN: again, a clear 5 wave count present and a high flyer of AMAZING proportions .. perhaps a little higher to targets shown? but 5th wave is weakening.
TSLA: bounce occurred as expected .. believe it will start, in earnest once the new year rolls around.
TWTR: bouncing today, but possible count complete. believe this stock is going to get smoked
FB: unorthodox count but one that makes sense .. basically, this entire move has been a corrective expanded flat and FB will go to single digits.
I should have known … for those who have been reading this blog, we’ve seen 1.68179 come up a lot lately. It was the extension target on an intraday basis for the emini, it was a price projection ratio (1.68179-1 – .68179) for the Pound vs USD and a host of other. the reason I “should have known” is a piece was put out on first call to SHORT GOOG at/around 1075 and stop out above 1082 (or something like that) I didn’t take into account the 1.68179 ratio and that’s what looks like it did it …
- the 898-974 GAP will get targeted and ultimately should get filled. am I expecting BIG SUPPORT w/in that entire ‘window’? YES …
- recent square of 9 targets shown w/ the IPO price of 95 in the center (hint hint)
- note the 5 waves up/into the recent high
- 33*33 = 1089
- the Defense Index sold off nicely yesterday … not sure WHY it works, it just looks the exact same.
- full disclosure, a short was tried at pattern completion (AB=CD) in/around 920. we’ll wait right now, but this sure looks like major resistance.
AAPL completed SELL pattern up against 2009 trend line. just a tad bit higher is the .618 retrace but it sure looks like this is it for now.
perhaps you are aware, perhaps you are not … I spent 11 glorious years in the United States Navy flying F-14 Tomcats off the pointy end of an aircraft carrier. It was a great ride …because of that, I still consult from time to time for the Defense, Aerospace and IC sectors …keeping an eye on the Defense Industry is a passion and a something that I love to do ….
I say this because the patterns are an objective way to look at the market. even w/ all of the doom and gloom about sequestration, budget cuts, troop draw downs the defense sector has steadily gone UP. even the past couple years … I’ll be honest and tell you that, believe it or not, a lot of these companies have amazing diversity and do IT, CYBER, Health Care, high tech solutions, etc. Your Boeing, Lockheed, etc are AMAZING companies that have their fingers in EVERYTHING.
That being said … the SELL PATTERN is appearing. Objectively, the Defense Index is coming close to a major sell pattern. As I was doing work on this sector I was called away to cook some awesome steaks (thanks to my room mate who taught me how to absolutely nail cooking them …) when I came back to the charts I THOUGHT I WAS CHARTING GOOGLE. I was confused because I have a lot of work on that chart (GOOG) and there was NO WORK on the chart I was looking at…so, I overlaid GOOG on top of the DEFENSE INDEX and just sat back and said … I have to post this. Draw your own conclusion ….
here was the geometry for the top in AAPL:
here was the geometry for the low in AAPL:
as we approached the low a very symmetrical 3 drives to a bottom appeared:
the “first” top that appeared gave us a sell signal and about 70 bucks but the market moved up and higher …now, we are completing another pattern along w/ returning to the trend line on AAPL. So, this is a very crucial juncture for the market …
GOOG — how UnAmerican can you get – trying to short GOOG? Well, it’s just numbers and patterns so guess what we are “there” again w/ GOOG so after the near knockout punch of a simple 100 point gap in your face – why not?
here’s the blog of the “next” target:
here’s the update:
classic or not that certainly proved to NOT be a head and shoulders neckline but a launching pad for a SATURN 5 and kaboom it exploded. as you can imagine the short well, took it on the chin to say the least: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05PKG_pWsVY !
Howard (Founder/CEO of Stocktwits) commented “as for me, I’ll stay long.” WELL PLAYED …
as for me, I’m licking the open chest wound and trying to put it all in context…
- that one day accelerated price action to such a degree that in one day it EXCEEDED the entire MONTHLY price action since GOOG’s IPO. Seriously…?
- the NASDAQ 100 has SO MANY parabolic charts it’s downright scary … have we not learned our lesson?
- the NASDAQ 100 continuous futures contract is right at major resistance / SELL pattern area
- Palladium has a very nice daily sell pattern about to complete (nice correlation in technology stocks and the palladium metal)
- our 925 level held for 6 months and then, kaboom, it exploded ..hugh?
- so, if at first you don’t excede, try try again (?)
- here’s my next set of targets w/ regard to GOOG