Tag: BOIL

Natural Gas – November 28, 2023

Natural Gas is at a very key junction w/ regard to price and a bullish move.

This is based on the MAJOR buy pattern on the monthly shown below. That pattern hit w/ both PRICE and TIME and that is the reason this “huge support” shown is such a big deal on the Nat Gas.

For those of you suffering w/ me in UNG I offer this very well written piece that was published just recently:

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/natural-gas-etfs-lessons-from-boil-and-ung-funds-in-2023

While I was aware of these type of situations having once been a CTA (focused on spot currency markets), I did not think it would effect this opportunity in such a way. Full disclosure I bought UNG in/around the mid 9’s and ran it all the way up to 34 and STILL OWN IT. Why … ?

Well, it’s not good investing – check.

BUT (always the “but”) I want to ride a wave from the very beginning (or what I thought was a BIG LOW) and go thru the ups and downs to understand how my FEELINGS/EMOTIONS would not only be reflected in how I viewed the chart and it’s price action but also how it actually felt to live thru the emotions of fear and greed just like they talk about w/in the “psychology of Elliott Wave.” So far, they have been pretty accurate.

So, folks, this ones a loser. My gameplan is to look for a low … I have another target down in the 3’s believe that one or not but really watch this PATTERN on NAT GAS to see if it holds.

No regrets .. it’s been a great year but this one has most definitely been in the “other” category. I’m going to put the best strategy in the world to work – HOPE- and look for that bounce up to around my entry and then gracefully exit this science experiment. Unless, of course, greed gets a hold of me and somehow I think this thing is really going to rocket to the moon … yeah.

That’s all she wrote.

UNG – March 13, 2023 (update)

Last post on Natural Gas: https://bartscharts.com/2023/02/24/natural-gas-part-ii-february-24-2023/

That gap down was a bummer … but, we have found support and bounced nicely. As you can see above, any move higher will run into the wall of China above (big gap) and probably fail the first or second time. But, obviously, we want it to close up and above that entire area so that is the immediate resistance.

The “ideal” PATTERN we would like is the a-b-c EWT corrective sequence that will set up a GART BUY.

You know I don’t like to do the “could have would have should have” but there is some nice little coloring techniques/tricks in the chart above so let’s take a peak.

First thing is to note the ABCD (blue arrows) into the low .. then, we have both a .707 and .786 retracement level with a 1.618 extension. I also (which I like to do, alot) extended off the last low before the march to the high and that was a nice ratio from the equal octave scale of music : 1.3348. Then, one last, take note of the “gap area” because that defined the measured moves into the low. No kidding … then, those orange measured moves set up what? A three drives to a bottom BUY pattern. (blue triangles).

Natural Gas Part II-February 24, 2023

This morning I posted the “measured move” on the Continuous Contract Nat Gas Futures from a monthly scale.

Here is the link: https://bartscharts.com/2023/02/24/natural-gas-february-24-2023/

Measured Moves are the most underutilized YET most POWERFUL tool in our toolbox. I think people don’t use them because they clutter their charts w/ lagging, coincident indicators … moving averages, bollinger bands, oscillators, and 1000’s of other tools. Do they work? SURE .. but, just think about it, ALL of the techniques and tools we use as chartists (even the esoteric stuff) is all contained in what? THE MEASURED MOVE.

This measured move is so nice BECAUSE it’s EXACT in both PRICE and TIME.

Add that to the count shown and the PATTERN present we have a very high probability trade. Right now, we are only risking a dollar. Trust me, we have time get into this move but the longer you wait, the more your risk will increase.

This analysis is wrong and would stop out with a WEEKLY close below 7.00.

Other “proxies” are showing amazing measured move synergy … in this case, from a percentage perspective using log scale.

note, added the measured move (mm) + .618*mm to equal first leg down

Here is the “final” count I’m going w/ in regard to UNG.

Let’s add this up …

  • Futures contract measured move – exact from a MONTHLY SCALE
  • UNG and BOIL percentage measured moves – exact
  • The 1.68179 extension hit after 233 calendar days … a Fibonacci harmonic
  • ABCD hit as the same TIME the extension pattern hit
  • The “count” on the way up violates no rules …
    • Note, because the all time low clearly went thru the prior low we CANNOT label this as wave 2. The form/structure sure looks like a “B” wave …

Net-Net … this has all the markings of a VERY powerful beginning of a 2+ year move and right now the risk reward is 35:1.

Why not give it a shot?