And the band played on … ?
Posted on April 10, 2014 2 Comments
the band on the titanic
CLIFF NOTES: couple days ago, posted the “chart of my lifetime” and it showed a very long term pattern completing on the Dow Jones Transports:
We did have a break down after levels were hit and, on an intraday basis, a 5 wave count down can be seen. The BIG QUESTION: is that the top of a big correction or resumption of a bear trend? Who knows .. it was a pattern and they either 1) work or 2) don’t …so, to put it in context I have attached a long term MONTHLY chart of the S&P cash and show the POTENTIAL PATTERN (bearish) at play and then go all the way down to a 5 minute chart to show how the lower time frames might be giving us a warning of what is coming OR not ….
either way, it’s all about the swing low and STRATEGY of either 1) taking profit or 2) moving stops up or 3) trying to get short … believe the charts below can serve as a road map.
one last thing … keep in mind the past couple months of charts. not ONE has shown a BUY pattern and 5 wave counts are everywhere (FB, AMZN, LNKD, BIDU, etc), parabolic charts are everywhere (PCLN, TSLA, IBB, GOOG, etc) and indices are completing all kinds of patterns (SELL) on decreasing volume. Not to mention there is absolutely NO FEAR in the market and EVERYONE surveyed is bullish. Margin debt is a big deal and the geo political environment is always a big deal … folks, it’s time to be very prudent in allocation, stop placement (if long) and for goodness sakes don’t listen to the talking head TV pundits …
WMT / SPX ratio revisted
Posted on April 6, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: support found in the relative strength of WMT/SPX. When this ratio goes UP the stock market goes down, when the ratio goes DOWN the stock market goes UP.
In the world of ratio analysis we are looking at the relative strength of something versus something. This has nothing to do w/ the RSI. If the numerator is BIGGER (more strength) than the denominator then the ratio goes UP and vice versa. This does not mean that the individual securities being compared will not go up or down. Just they should go up or down based on the strength or weakness.
The concept behind the WMT/SPX ratio is one of volatility and risk. The only thing I can say is to look at the chart below:
WMT/SPX ratio w/ the S&P (blue line) overlaid
when this ratio hits a bottom the market tops and vice versa. now, we have been watching patterns get hit and work for a time but then fail (BUY patterns of the ratio) and, most recently, we hit another pattern and the ratio has shown strength and, well, the S&P has shown some weakness. Also, note the new highs in the S&P were NEVER confirmed by new lows in the ratio. per a couple posts ago – it’s all about the swing low – so watch weekly swing lows. Until they are taken out, this band can definitely play on. Guess it doesn’t matter that the band is on the Market Titantic.
Just bringing up a simple technique to look for POTENTIAL correlations that most would not consider …
Palladium and NASDAQ
Posted on April 6, 2014 Leave a Comment
Cliff Notes: noted below is that Palladium and the NASDAQ do move together, but at major inflection points there is some lag. After the lag, they sync up nicely and move up and down in similar fashion. The past 4 years have been highly congestive for Palladium …something that (obviously) wasn’t the case w/ the NAZZIE.
I have attempted to label a potential count on the monthly Palladium chart. Either way I look at it, believe we are in the final stages of a final move up. Expecting the .786 (monthly) to be targeted resistance. Key here will be to watch for weakness in Palladium if the NAZZIE starts to roll lower.
Silver update …
Posted on April 3, 2014 Leave a Comment
for review, here’s the past Silver work …
https://bartscharts.com//?s=silver
CLIFF NOTES: complex correction unfolding in (4) – waiting for the 14 level to BUY on Silver. $$$$ question – was the high up in/around 50 a 3 or 5? Not sure..either way 14 is a pattern.
Spot Silver Weekly
the most important chart in my lifetime
Posted on April 1, 2014 12 Comments
CLIFF NOTES: the most important pattern in the history of the US stock market was hit today. Period.
- all time low on Dow Jones Transportation Index was 49.59 on 10/29/1896
- that low when used as the key node for retracements was responsible for the LOW in 1987 (.382 retracement ), the LOW in 2003 (EXACT 50 percent retracement) and the LOW in 2009 (EXACT .618 retracement).
- it was also the beginning of the projection for the high in 2007.
- now, currently, the 1896-2007 leg is projection to an area EXACTLY to where we close today …additionally a 1.618 extension from the 2007 top is at the exact same area.
folks, I incorrectly assumed that a top had been made in the transports when we went down 4% in one day. figured some slippage or something like that. well, it kept going up and, guess what — it went up and smacked (today) the ONLY PATTERN that can be complete using the all time low.
the market is so beyond thunderdome that I expect it to get crushed and the band will simply play on and on and on …but the prudent investor, trader, institution would BAIL AT THE FIRST HINT OF A WEEKLY SELL SIGNAL …
one last – these numbers we are dealing w/ have their genesis from the all time low in the Dow Jones Transports some 42887 days ago. what does that mean? well, it’s a big flipping pattern that completed today is what it means…you can argue if it takes into account inflation or stock splits or any of that other stuff … none of that matters. Look at the chart and there right in front of you is the retracements and projections.
that 49.59 has been responsible for EVERY major high and low in the history of the Transports …
Dow Jones Transports 1896-2014
Loonie, the Dollar and the Oil Services Index
Posted on April 1, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: USD support for BUY opportunity shown//very important divergence present in OSX and LOONIE vs USD. for the life of the data they have moved opposite but for the past 2 years they have rolled together. while they have lead/lagged they have, essentially, been doing the opposite at tops and bottoms. When one tops the other bottoms and vice versa.
so, at times, one could look to the Oil Service Sector and see if a BUY or SELL pattern completed and then look for the opposite pattern to appear on the Loonie vs the USD. For two years that has not been the case .. they are moving together. They could roll together into infinity but something certainly doesn’t make sense …
so compare the commodity currencies (AUD/NZD/CAD) against each other ….BOOM a beautiful SELL PATTERN on the AUDCAD
CLIFF NOTES: Loonie “should” strengthen against the AUSSIE
how about CNZDCAD? not suprising — KIWI is kicking everyones butt right now … it’s at an all time high against the LOONIE w/ strength.
GBPCAD:
EURCAD:
CHFCAD:
CADJPY
the Japanese Yen in charts …
Posted on April 1, 2014 4 Comments
Cliff notes: can “see” why recent YEN weakness has paused and ran into resistance on the charts. that being said, some MAJOR patterns completing just a little farther away (note: CHFJPY) Also, note that YEN strength usually shows volatility spiking. I expect mid-April to be interesting across the entire circle of life.
Also, have found this a great resource to check accuracy of long term data: http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-graph-zoom.php?C1=CHF&C2=JPY&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&DD2=31&MM2=03&YYYY2=2014&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0
NFLX follow up
Posted on March 31, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: went a little higher than the original target at/around 400. However, we did make it known a 5th wave advance was maturing and finishing. Believe it might be cooked …
BIDU follow up
Posted on March 31, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: very strong probability that a 5 wave advance is complete on BIDU
Here’s the last look at BIDU working on a 188 target for wave 5: https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/21/the-ray-charles-count-on-bidu/
Updated chart:
Bart's Charts 