Interest rate forecast …

8/22/2014 – if you read below you’ll read “my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….”  If that is the case then we have a VERY NICE PATTERN appearing on the Ten Year Treasury Yield that has multiple confirmations going for it ….remember folks, this is a 5 minute chart.

also, I have “copy/pasted” the earlier this week post on Jackson Hole and the fixed income structure …

the PATTERN:

  • it’s a nice corrective pattern a-b-c.  expectation is that “c” is in work and “should” take yields down to 2.358.
  • c = 1.618*a right at ….2.358.
  • a 1.618 extension of the “b” wave takes us right to ….2.358
  • a retracement from the “key” low that we have watched for a while is .618 at …. you guessed it …2.358.

when all of these numbers line up … in this case SUPPORT usually occurs.

make it a great weekend …

5 minute ten year rate PATTERN

5 minute ten year rate PATTERN

one last … I have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what Janet Yellen and the FED did this week or what in the world was said in the meeting minutes.  Frankly, I don’t care … PATTERNS, PATTERNS, PATTERNS.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

CLIFF NOTES: folks, follow this link to catch up on the Fixed Income story: https://bartscharts.com//?s=fixed+income

CLIFF NOTES 2: this is a tough one … the pattern in the fixed income market (30 year) failed and has gone much higher//the pattern on TBT failed.  HOWEVER, the long standing target on the TEN YEAR Treasury Yield was hit on Friday.  Quite frankly, I didn’t think it would get hit as the 2.4 level provide some nice support and then, ultimately failed.   So we are at THE critical level for the rate structure on the 10 year.  I’ll stand by my guns this is corrective in nature, but the Ten Year needs to stop here or we’ll vacuum lower and rates will continue to plummet.  I also updated the 30 year count to show a potential NEW HIGH if this count is correct.  I will be the first to admit that our pattern failed on the 30 year/TBT.  In fact, we found the support for the long bond ( https://bartscharts.com/2014/01/04/thelma-and-louis-and-fixed-income/ ) and it was at a very crucial level at the time of that post.  It held and since then has rocketed higher (lower rates).

CLIFF NOTES 3: we are at a CRUCIAL CRUCIAL LEVEL …. not trying to be wishy washy as we have to take a stand but I can see the case of either direction. But in order to take a stand and some risk – my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….

CHEERS!

HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!

HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!

 

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