Bonds – hovering at make or break level …
Tag: $zb
LONG BOND since 1981 UPDATED
11/13/2016 – as you can see below, back in July I did the post for @seeitmarket and also here on the blog about a ‘potential’ top / resistance on the bond complex. the targets were hit and, since then, the bonds have been sold and, just this past week, have accelerated to the downside. am updating the charts of the Long Bond, TLT, $IRX, RYJUX (mutual fund to go long rates), Utilities, 10 year. it took some time to unfold and a pattern failed earlier in the year but this one certainly is putting probability in our corner that we MIGHT have a ‘generational’ high in bond prices. as always, stay tuned …
i did this post for @seeitmarket around the TLT (long bond (20 year +) ETF: http://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-price-target-view-treasury-bonds-stretched-15862/ and the targets around 145 still loom ….
so, here’s the long bond and the TLT charts ….not trying to “call a top” just find patterns. could they keep going higher? well of course ..but man, this is really getting quite crazy now, isn’t it?
note, on a monthly you can see 5 waves completing (30 year continuous) and that should mean a pullback but is it the 5th of the 5th? who knows …
@seeitmarket w/ TLT and a quick look at the 30 year …
9/3/2016 – have been doing some work over @seeitmarket w/ Andy and the gang here: http://www.seeitmarket.com/defensive-sector-etfs-hit-targets-reversals-next-tlt-xlu-16014/
also, note the breakdown on Friday of the 30 year support .. this is looking very heavy.
here’s an update to the charts:
LONG BOND since 1981
i did this post for @seeitmarket around the TLT (long bond (20 year +) ETF: http://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-price-target-view-treasury-bonds-stretched-15862/ and the targets around 145 still loom ….
so, here’s the long bond and the TLT charts ….not trying to “call a top” just find patterns. could they keep going higher? well of course ..but man, this is really getting quite crazy now, isn’t it?
note, on a monthly you can see 5 waves completing (30 year continuous) and that should mean a pullback but is it the 5th of the 5th? who knows …
the initial impulse move … is the DNA
spent last night w/ my wife of 23 years and best friend since we were 15, at the Andrea Bocelli concert …as a self proclaimed market musician on many occasions I found myself w/ eyes closed trying to hear the different chords/tempo and harmony being blended. it was pretty cool …so this morning I thought I would take you down a trip along “harmony” lane and talk about the initial impulse move or DNA of ANY liquid instrument.
the longer the chart time frame the better .. we have shown the ability of “nodes” from the late 1800’s taking part in moves that have occurred in the 2000’s. so if you have long term data, use it. in this case we are looking at the low on the bonds from 1981. this low created the very powerful 30+ year move in fixed income.
1. the bold blue arrow is the “seed” or “DNA” that begins this move … do you know it at the time? probably not. HOWEVER, after the first pullback (on a long term chart) you can start to assume a major inflected top or bottom is in place and start the trip down the “harmony” lane.
2. from that initial impulse move up (note it takes it account the slope of the move – you include PRICE and TIME) draw a SQUARE. Now, using “standard” trend line tools draw a 45 degree angle and then, well, your done. connect the 45 degree angle to the top and the low of the box and simply take a look at what appears. THE HARMONY/GEOMETRY of the MOVE.
now, as far as this chart goes we have a lot of “stuff” going …
1. note the largest corrective move in the 30+ year BULL RUN takes us into the 123 11 area.
2. note, this largest corrective move occurred during the 2008 thumping in equities. it’s already 3/4 over and equities haven’t even moved … hmmm.
3. if you look at the wave structure is sure looks like we are in wave 5 of 3 that “should” take us to attack that level indicated by the horizontal blue line.
4. note how the “trend line” and the “measured move correction” come together right in/around the 123-124 level.
5. let’s not forget, this is a massive BULL run so it would only make sense that the trend will continue. this 123-124 level will be the line in the sand, IMHO (h= humbled) opinion.
stay tuned ….
here’s the dollar index, takes about 10 minutes
