$ewj – Bart's Charts

I’m watching 4 things …

PATTERNS on the ES, $NYA, Banking Index and Yen to tell me if we break out to new highs.

Banks are rolling. That’s bullish – get thru level shown then we should surge higher
Yen, after an entire 6 weeks of doing nothing – EXPLODED. 119.80 line in the sand
ES “basic” AB=CD complete.
NYA shows a possible count calling for lower

Close today will rank in the “big deal” category in my very humbled opion.

Just a pattern guy … no idea what the jobs report, or rates, or any of that “stuff” means …

folks, I’ll say it once, I’ll say it again … PATTERNS PATTERNS PATTERNS. Check out this post on the JPY and then compare everything that has happened … they help you manage risk and therefore they work:

relative strength of GOLD vs the USDJPY importance

so, where are we now? let’s take a peak. first chart is actually showing another pattern complete and the BUY USD vs JPY that we posted on June 27, 2014. Highlighted areas are the ones to watch.

now, take a peak and we have completed (or a little higher) another pattern on the IMPORTANT USD vs JPY YEN cross. also, note the the N225 futures are up at the .786.

now time to go to the relative strength chart (GOLD / USD vs JPY).

GOLD/USD vs JPY with USD vs JPY overlaid (red line) NOTE HOW THEY ARE EQUAL AND OPPOSITE!

what does a BUY pattern mean w/ this ratio? take note – the equal and opposite inflection occurs w/ regards to the USD vs JPY cross. So, our thesis is IF the BUY of the ratio holds THEN the SELL $$$ vs JPY patterns that are completing/have completed will cause the YEN to strengthen for another corrective leg. Additionally, this will foreshadow weakness in the N225.

see how that works …? Patiently wait for PATTERNS to form, work them into intermarket and ratio analysis and then pull the trigger when you feel like jumping into a 5 TRILLION dollar a day market w/ gorilla’s juggling dynamite from your simple and humble home office listening to Pink Floyd ….

Let’s complete the YEN circle of life ….

here’s the ETF for Japan … EWJ

around the world …. the song remains the same

cliff notes: not one new high across the world. Malaysia has given it a good try, but has not “on close” exceeded it’s 2007 high. the song remains the same … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcYZlRWWxO0

around the world update … part II

Around the world update …

the link above is where you’ll find our around the world cruises since August. this post is an update …what do we see?

nothing has changed, significantly.
none of the international indices have made new highs like the US equity markets …
patterns have provided resistance, BUT not necessarily overt sell signals
for the BEARS we are concerned about the SIZE and STRENGTH of the past two weeks of candles. the only country that doesn’t have this feel, as we see the world (literally) is Japan. The European ETF’s show strength in the bullish weekly engulfing patterns.
for the BULLS this is a good sign HOWEVER I’ve enclosed a chart of the DJIA that shows a very strong move UP from the low 9-10 days ago but a VERY significant lack of VOLUME. the VOLUME was BIG going down and SMALL going up (in fact it decreased) hence I find this to be overtly bearish. A very nice 5 waves down can be seen in most of all the indices except the NASDAQ but that is also completing a 1) 5 point reverse wave, 2) 3 drives to a top and 3) all of em’ are smacking into the .786 retracement from 2000. If the US Market starts down again in a “daily C wave” or “continuation 3” we find it hard to believe that the rest of the world won’t also …
so, we believe this week will be pivotal …
last, believe it or not, the Dollar is going to be Gorilla that get’s this thing truly rocking and rolling ….one target was hit and held late Friday afternoon.