dollar index – Page 4 – Bart's Charts

in our last post we discussed the importance of current levels on the dollar or the 78.73 level a little lower. in “counting terms” believe the dollar is carving out a major bottom in what can be coined an expanded flat corrective move. if this analysis is correct, I am expecting a major move on the dollar…

http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/01/dollar-index-done-or-correcting-or-a-little-lower/

the EURO has completed a major retracement, the POUND needs a little higher or right in here, the YEN finished a sell pattern, the SWISS hit a weekly pattern (or perhaps a little lower to the .382) and mulitple other pairs via the USD are showing the potential for a major dollar low in place. what else?

Commitment of Traders (COT): Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st.

Here’s the data in chart form …

here’s the dollar index using red arrows to show the BEARISH and the blue arrows to show the BULLISH positions. NOTE, at the extremes the opposite happened w/ regard to price.

now, when we take a look at the the EURO we’ll see a pretty amazing picture w/ the net positions shown but this time w/ a price of the EURO vs USD overlaid on top of the positions. here take a look …

note the price of the EURO vs the USD .. at extreme levels of BEARISH and BULLISH points, the price did the opposite. When the level of bearishness by the large speculators was extreme the EURO went up and when the level was bullish it went down. take note of our dollar index we have been following since the end of August …w/ everything being presented here and in the past, certainly looks like being a dollar bull in/around here is the side of the market to be on …

dollar index updated as of 9 PM EST 10/27/2013:

here is the picture for the UUP w/ potential support points noted … also, believe if the low that we carved out on this chart is taken out by a daily close then all of this analysis is completely incorrect.

a couple days ago I posted about the US Dollar missing my lower target and the potentiality of a bottom and even saw a “nice” inverse head and shoulders that IF it broke thru would be a bullish signal. it didn’t and, now, looks like my lower target is going to be attacked. quite frankly, I’m glad … for over 2.5 months i have steadfastly WAITED and deployed NO CAPITAL. Always, thinking, “I missed it” or “why the heck did it do that” or any number of ugly “little voices” that appear. my mentors have banged into my thick head to ONLY invest at PRECISE levels because then and only then can we manage the risk. I’ve taken that to the extreme and, quite frankly, it’s my Achilles’s heal from an PM perspective. making no apologies. I think the tendency to try and “nats ass” levels is based on the HOURS upon HOURS that I spent in the Navy precisely aligning attack vectors for putting a 2000 lb pound in the center of a window from 35,000 ft at 1.2 IMN. old habits are hard to break ….

the other reason is because of a chart like below:

if you take the time to STUDY the chart (and why not if your reading my post – thanks by the way) you’ll see the EXACT, again, EXACT measured moves at the low in 1992-1995 hit. so, in the context of WAITING 2.5 months for this opportunity to present itself, it’s really nothing in the context of 3 years. YES, there is and was a lot of money to be made day in and day out trading the swings. but you know what … I don’t like doing that. it doesn’t fit MY STYLE so I like to put the pieces of the puzzle together and deploy capital. So, this AM, let’s take a look at the pattern coming in on the US DOLLAR INDEX.

the key for me is the “measured move” correction like that of 05/2011. Bruce Buffer time … HERE WE GO

Tag: dollar index

US Dollar as of 10/27/2013 9:00 PM EST

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the joys of the puzzle …

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