Wanted to do a follow up on some Natural Gas questions that have hit the blog. THANKS FOR ASKING
The chart below is back from August and it showed the completion of a “large” AB=CD PATTERN and then a BUTTERFLY PATTERN appeared and held. The natural flow of things calls for a BUY once a key retracement level is reached. So, we are approaching the .786 level as shown and believe that should be respected.
Additionally, when I do mirror image foldbacks I try to recognize (try being the operative word) the last major correction that happened in the past and then see how that lines up w/ the rhythm/balance of the chart. Some charts below will show that concept: JEC, Silver and the US Dollar.
The “real” reason for the foldbacks is, believe it or not, planetary in nature. It “usually” involves a combination of 2 planets moving in/out towards conjunctions OR a big planet going retrograde. It’s hard to find the right combo or pair so, frankly, I just go w/ what looks good to the eye and then look for a PATTERN and SENTIMENT that makes sense.
First chart is JEC … the first chart was showing the parabolic nature of the move and how it was pretty much done. Now, note the very nice symmetry of the move down from the high. so that “last” move up going from the top and down left to right is EXACTLY equal to the move in the “current” time and the “are we here.” Rest was history …
Here’s SILVER ….buy at 8 and foldback up the big plunge down. Forecast was upper 40’s. IF IT WAS THE CORRECT POINT. We NEVER know …this one worked.
Here’s my favorite on a LONG TERM MONTHLY of the US Dollar. Study this one …this chart below has NOTHING to do w/ the global macro fundamentals and EVERYTHING about the PATTERN.
If you’ve been following my posts on http://www.seeitmarket.com (@seeitmarket) then you’ll know that I’m watching the current area on YHOO and have noticed a POTENTIAL intraday foldback appearing. (http://www.seeitmarket.com/yahoo-yhoo-topping-pattern-still-play-13929/)
so where does this leave us w/ NAT GAS? if you look at the chart below, you’ll see the 2.903 level as a key level based on 1) the .786 retracement and the measured move down that completes the foldback. That is what I’m watching….
hope this helps and let me know if you have any more questions.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
so far, it’s been a very nice and symmetrical move in Natural Gas futures …
if (the big if) the mirror image is at play THEN either 1) here or 2) a little lower and we should see Natural Gas foldback up the blue arrow shown by the “we are here (?)” in the middle of the chart.
NOBODY believed me when we said BUY Silver at 8 and it could go to 48. They didn’t believe me when they should take profit either…just PATTERNS folks.
So, if this is correct, Natural Gas is getting ready to explode.
3 thoughts on “a look at mirror image foldbacks and Natural Gas”
Dear Bart,thanks for your important technical analysis,after a week of up and down of the price of natural gas between 2,80 and 3,17 i’m asking why the bounce you had talking about in this post is so late to arrive: do you think that your analysis is still right or you think something is changed?Another question:the bounce i think can arrive between 4,7-4,8 resistence,do you think so?
Thank you and compliments for your work
Paul – thanks for asking. Am currently in Vegas at CES. Will look at Nat Gas this weekend and update. The correction from the mirror image foldback and the .786 retrace “should” have held. If we have broken below that I would suspect the analysis/pattern has failed. Does that help? Thanks – B
Ok,thanks and have a nice journey in Las Vegas. P