Homebuilders ETF (XHB) appears to have topped or is topping a little higher at the ABCD (blue arrows) projection …
First, happy birthday to my wife …! She’s the bomb!
Second, certainly looks like the XHB has topped or is topping for now …
Got into a little trance doing this one …
XHB – Homebuilders – topped or a little higher. IF (and why not) we get thru these resistance levels then …off to the races.
I think, or not, that all of you who follow this blog sense/feel that “something” is amiss.
I just had a 3 hour dinner w/ an amazing friend and mentor, Chuck … we just flowed and talked and talked, it was awesome.
Ultimately, FLOW is what it’s all about ….last night and today I flowed w/ the Homebuilders Index.
We have TOPPED or need one more push higher …above the levels shown and, I will get out the eraser and try again … this one is looking like tasty cakes.
06/20/2017 – update.
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04/15/2017 – XHB has continued higher. It hasn’t made new highs but it sure isn’t showing the weakness that the rest of the overall market is showing right now …I’ve also updated ITB. Note, I didn’t have all the data (not sure why) the last time I posted on this one … the high is in/around 50.
I see strong resistance for XHB and ITB in the coming days/weeks .. I also see 900,000 – 1MM dollar houses in San Diego that are standing inventory all over the place… something will figure itself out, I do know that.
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1/30/2017 – TON of standing inventory in the 900,000 range for .00004 acres and <2000 sq ft w/ rates rising. (I know that’s fundamental ‘stuff’ but it helps cast a picture)
a ‘basic’ H+S on the Home-builders sure seems to be building … only ‘TIME’ will tell. note the ‘time’ symmetry between the L and R shoulders. Kind of cool.
be well, do good.
Bart
11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship. You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′. Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.
were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders. This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.
of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:
the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash. Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining. Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.
Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …
For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks. We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice. (https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/06/most-important-chart-to-end-2014/)
So, that’s all I’m doing again ….
Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …
Do well, be good and rock on, always.
Bart
I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
Study:
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
Bart
04/15/2017 – XHB has continued higher. It hasn’t made new highs but it sure isn’t showing the weakness that the rest of the overall market is showing right now …I’ve also updated ITB. Note, I didn’t have all the data (not sure why) the last time I posted on this one … the high is in/around 50.
I see strong resistance for XHB and ITB in the coming days/weeks .. I also see 900,000 – 1MM dollar houses in San Diego that are standing inventory all over the place… something will figure itself out, I do know that.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
1/30/2017 – TON of standing inventory in the 900,000 range for .00004 acres and <2000 sq ft w/ rates rising. (I know that’s fundamental ‘stuff’ but it helps cast a picture)
a ‘basic’ H+S on the Home-builders sure seems to be building … only ‘TIME’ will tell. note the ‘time’ symmetry between the L and R shoulders. Kind of cool.
be well, do good.
Bart
11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship. You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′. Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.
were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders. This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.
of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:
the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash. Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining. Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.
Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …
For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks. We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice. (https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/06/most-important-chart-to-end-2014/)
So, that’s all I’m doing again ….
Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …
Do well, be good and rock on, always.
Bart
I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
Study:
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
Bart
1/30/2017 – TON of standing inventory in the 900,000 range for .00004 acres and <2000 sq ft w/ rates rising. (I know that’s fundamental ‘stuff’ but it helps cast a picture)
a ‘basic’ H+S on the Home-builders sure seems to be building … only ‘TIME’ will tell. note the ‘time’ symmetry between the L and R shoulders. Kind of cool.
be well, do good.
Bart
11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship. You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′. Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.
were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders. This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.
of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:
the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash. Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining. Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.
Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …
For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks. We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice. (https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/06/most-important-chart-to-end-2014/)
So, that’s all I’m doing again ….
Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …
Do well, be good and rock on, always.
Bart
I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
Study:
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
Bart
11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship. You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′. Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.
were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders. This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.
of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:
the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash. Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining. Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.
Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …
For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks. We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice. (https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/06/most-important-chart-to-end-2014/)
So, that’s all I’m doing again ….
Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …
Do well, be good and rock on, always.
Bart
I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
Study:
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
Bart
I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
Study:
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
Bart
I know it’s cyclical and it’s location location location but I also know that some didn’t too bad in the next downturn and some did really bad …I see some major targets being hit and or a little higher in real estate.
Perhaps I’m an idiot, but me and the wife close on the sale of our house in two weeks. I am so glad to be liquid for the forthcoming storm … hoping to buy a MONSTER Beach House in the Outer Banks after the “flood” of deflation and debt reach our shores.
Charts below:
as you can see from below the Homebuilder Index (XHB) has broken out most recently from the congestion area highlighted in the link below and now has a target of 38. Not bullish or bearish – just a pattern guy. so, as you can see below, we are finishing a PATTERN but what about the top 10 holdings of this ETF?
CLIFF NOTES: all top 10 XHB components have SELL PATTERNS. So, IF these work then they will weaken. IF NOT then this ETF should make new highs. We know our line in the sand …
Here are the top 10 holdings of XHB in no particular order – all are showing SELL PATTERNS
CLIFF NOTES: can see why this current level is important using Adams Pitchfork Method. The Head and shoulders shown in the post below never materialized by breaking the neck line and we rallied a buck or so higher. Still looking for this to be an “end of move” pattern …
Homebuilder’s Index has “recovered” nicely, as has everything, from the 2007-2009 timeframe. That being said, we have a very symmetrical and orderly pattern that has recently completed on the weekly timeframe. Additionally, take a look at the daily timeframe – the classic head and shoulders pattern pops right out at you. Stay tuned, but perhaps the big bad wolf is about to pounce and blow the house down? Or, not ….
