Tag: $UUP

Let the market tell you – EURO quick look

CLIFF NOTES:

  • follow the black dotted line to see where the major level has been for the Euro.
  • Then, follow the orange line.
  • Additionally, note a nice little cycle coming in at 778 days.  We are off by a week, but that’s OK and – quite frankly – the reason is a little too esoteric for this discussion.  we are still in the time zone for a bounce.
  • Note, from the beginning of the BULL market that started in 2000 we have used the “standard” 1×1, 1×2 and 2×1 angles but the KEY is we have oriented them to the plane of the move up that began the bull market. Follow the bouncing ball and we’ll see that the 2×1 caught the July 2012 move and now we are approaching the .618 retrace and the trend line.
  • Bottom line: EURO bounce coming based on 1) structure, 2) “basic” and “advanced” time cycles, 3) trend line from the beginning of the bull market in 2000 4).618 retracement  5) the 1/8 increment of the signal reversal candle down completes a little lower and 6) we are developing bullish divergence.
  • WAIT to 1) short the upcoming bounce or 2) let the market tell you a bottom is in place and then buy the first pullback that should have a 3 wave structure . (NOTE the only correction so far has been a flat.  by the law of alternation, we will have a triangle or ziz-zag appear.  so WAIT for the bottom…

 

EURO vs USD weekly
EURO vs USD weekly

 

EURO vs USD Daily
EURO vs USD Daily
EURO vs USD 30 minute
EURO vs USD 30 minute

dollar strength foldback up move – complete

September 9, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: the mirror image foldback that we have been following has, for all intensive purposes, completed the move up.  Expect some dollar weakness and, believe it or not, the entire leg down noted by the red arrow to the left of the chart could be a possibility.  the key point – when mirror image foldbacks fail, they usually fail at the key inflection points so watch the current levels on the USD and the levels on the Pound, Euro, Swissy, Loonie, Chief, etc. for signs of dollar weakness.

Dollar Index Foldback - next leg complete
Dollar Index Foldback – next leg complete

as a side note, I’ve added a long term chart of the US Dollar that began the entire dollar strength run back in 2011 …it’s a beauty.

long term US Dollar Foldback
long term US Dollar Foldback

 

 

May 08, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: I thought I had posted this once before .. the POTENTIAL mirror image foldback on the US DOLLAR.  I have gone thru my charts and I can’t find it but I know I sent it to Larry P so … here it is.  Also, go back and look at the UUP (Dollar ETF) chart that we looked at for the .886 retrace and “one last hope.”  Well, today’s action was pretty impressive …is the dollar bull thesis still alive?  Shoot, I don’t know so I sit on my hands, STILL.  Keep an eye out on the dollar … perhaps it set a low?

Mirror Image Foldback
Mirror Image Foldback

 

the other thing that is interesting is the FRACTAL pattern that appears to be working itself out on a longer term chart …

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EURO Continued

CLIFF NOTES: per our last post, the EURO found support in the area we were watching.  (note – it went a little below so what I did is use the equal octave scale of music note A – 1.68179 extension and .68179 projection for the “exact” level where the pivot took place.)  Now, believe this move does have lower to go so we’ll go to a lower time frame and look to see where the pullback should/likely end.  Recommend a short again ….probably around Tuesday/Wed

EUR vs USD Daily
EUR vs USD Daily

 

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will wait to project potential corrective height after Sun/Monday … believe we do have time for the pullback pattern to develop.

EURO should find support now or soon …

CLIFF NOTES: support to come and then get short this bounce.  follow along …

EURO support HERE or a LITTLE LOWER
EURO support HERE or a LITTLE LOWER

EURO vs USD update

CLIFF NOTES: the EURO bottomed on June 05,2014.  It’s been correcting for 18 (long days).  The most recent correction that occurred (intra day) on Friday was, just that, a corrective move in what I believe is the last leg of a “long” flat correction.  Targets in/around 1.3700 are a good place to get into a short.  Additionally, we could still POP up to 1.3800 so need to continue to monitor and be patient.

In any event the 1.39930 is KEY to the thesis that our 3 wave 1.5 year correction (labeled below as W-X-Y) is complete and we are on the verge of a major move lower in the EURO vs USD.

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the EURO now (finally) we are interested ….

On 5/21/2014 we posted that we were waiting for 1.3520-1.3580 to provide support for the bounce UP to SHORT.  W/ the ECB announcement today it got going BIG TIME and went thru our level by 8 pips.  Negligible.  Did I deploy capital for V50?  ABSOLUTELY NOT … no, I’am building my case for entry on a short and waited, albeit patiently for the level area to get tested and either work or not … it worked so now we build the case for entry and potential entry points.  To review the post from 05/21 please see:

 http://bartscharts.com/2014/05/21/euro-vs-usd-at-this-point-looking-for-support-to-bounce-up-and-then-try-a-short

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NOTE: I truly did not care one bit that the ECB is showing the world how dire their situation is in the Euro Zone today … I trust my patterns and the levels and now build the case for a EURO short and I will deploy capital WHEN/IF a pattern appears. Let’s get to work …

  • note blue arrows and .618 overlapping. Polarity on top of a .618 retracement.  I like that …watch this level at 1.3805.
  • note the blue rectangle shaded area .. price held at that resistance point for 7 days. EXTEND off of that point.

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now we are going down to a 30 minute chart …THE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE MOVE IS THE SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE …note the blue arrows.  I am now PROJECTING UP using this candle and NOTE it stops right at the 4/8 th (.5) increment.  This is good because the 8/8 is RIGHT AT THE .618 retracement …

Main20140605205633

 

so, the nice thing we are expecting is a 3 wave corrective move UP into our target zone. nothing to do now but wait … you know it will be crazy tomorrow morning so just sit on your hands for non farm payroll.  The opportunity to make money will be next week …trust me on that one.

good night!

EURO vs USD at this point looking for support to bounce UP and then try a short

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Dollar Index … again. Look at this chart … U G L Y.

Cliff Note: the BUY pattern worked and then, well, it didn’t?  Some WILD SWINGS in the currency markets.  the Gorilla’s were/are definitely juggling dynamite.  One of my RULES is that I NEVER trade on non-farm payroll days.  Just sit on my hands … bet a lot of people went long $$, then short $$ then long $$$ … W O W.

Look at the “wicks” on those candles … that is some serious UP and DOWN action.  Do we really have a clue of who has control?  Well, right now the chart is red and lower – so that’s my best guess…

W O W

Guess will take a fresh look (again) this weekend …

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