is the Sun going to set or rise in Japan (aka the Land of the Rising Sun)

CLIFF NOTES: for the reasons shown below, 102.70 is the KEY level for the USD vs JPY. If we exceed this level, then believe the USD will begin to soar again vs the YEN.

 

Going to try and work thru the entire “Elliott is good // Elliott is bad argument” by simply saying when it’s an easy count use it and when it’s not .. it’s probably correcting and if you can’t “see” it immediately then bail to another technical tool box.   In the case of the USD vs JPY the weekly and daily count CLEARLY shows 5 waves up from the all time high of the JPY vs $$$.

We made the high around  the first of the year and the pair has been consolidating/correcting ever since … the BULLISH aspect of this correction is it has held the .382 from the wave 4 triangle low … that’s bullish for the USD vs JPY.

What’s interesting to note is we have had two sell patterns that have “worked” but have not been able to drop below the 101 handle ….take a peak:

Main20140817155256

 

now … here’s where Elliott can help you.  In the chart below we have dropped down to a 2 hour chart and we have two potentialities occurring … either we have a 3 that subdivided and 4 just completed which calls for this pair to fall (JPY strength) OR we have a a-b-c correction complete and the USD might begin to skyrocket against the JPY (which OBTW will cause the Nikkei 225 to skyrocket also …the GOOD THING – we know exactly where we are w/ regards to 102.70.  Check it out:

 

this is showing 4 complete and we should be going DOWN
this is showing 4 complete and we should be going DOWN
this is the STRONG dollar case and we completed an a-b-c correction and it's going to take off
this is the STRONG dollar case and we completed an a-b-c correction and it’s going to take off

now, below is the NK 225 futures (continuous) overlaid on top of the USD vs JPY. NOTE THEY ARE ALMOST MIRROR IMAGES OF EACH OTHER …

NK 225 overlaid on USD vs JPY (notice how synchronized they are)
NK 225 overlaid on USD vs JPY (notice how synchronized they are)

 

last thing .. notice the TIME component of this correction.  Since the all time low of the USD vs JPY (10/2011) the corrective timing has been about right for this most recent correction. TIME is a big deal so, perhaps, we won’t see any lower in the USD vs JPY and it’s time to rumble?  My eye tells me the pattern in PRICE isn’t quite done going lower but we have to trade what we see and not believe.  Standing by w/ levels above noted …

the TIME component of this correction is complete
the TIME component of this correction is complete

 

USD vs JPY an update

CLIFF NOTES: intraday, the pair has just completed a 5 wave movement down.  folks, it’s a tough count in that we are either a-b-c complete and we move UP and highter above 103 from here OR we subdivided and after this brief bounce we continue down to attack the 101 level which has held for 6+ months.  If we break 101 a target is shown below.  take note – we completed 5 waves up so that is either A or 1.  either way, monitor the USD vs JPY closely as the opportunity to BUY again is coming and it will lead to new highs beyond the Jan 2014 high.  Stay tuned … take note of the monthly.  My gut tells me this is going to be a run away freight train if the 101 levels gets taken out BUT it’s one that needs to be BOUGHT w/ a nice pattern.

get ready to rumble … Main20140808100711Main20140808095948

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