SBUX and Coffee Prices …update 10/30/2015 to the update 8/27/2016

 

08/27/2016

the ratio projections shown below nailed the high (recent) in SBUX

we now find the ratio sitting on a cliff of support – above the support SBUX should start to improve.

below the cliff of support then expect SBUX to continue it’s downward slide.

it’s not about the ACTUAL prices in SBUX and Coffee but the relative strength of coffee prices and SBUX.

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

Page_16-08-27_18-13-04

 

Page_16-08-27_18-14-39

 

Page_16-08-27_18-16-01

 

Page_16-08-27_18-17-32

here’s the cliff of support for the future on a weekly chart:

Page_16-08-27_18-21-08

 


Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion.  However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio.  There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end.  With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short.  Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below.  HAPPY HUNTING ….

Bart

Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX Monthly - note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX Monthly – note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX weekly log ... watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from2009
SBUX weekly log … watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from 2009


 

one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?

first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line

Page_15-10-10_11-27-56

I don’t see much of a correlation …..

How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES?  THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?

Page_15-10-10_11-30-44

now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX.  SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …

Is the ratio hitting some targets?  Ummmm, yes.

Page_15-10-10_11-25-58

so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO.  Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.

Bart

SBUX and Coffee Prices …update 10/30/2015

Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion.  However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio.  There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end.  With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short.  Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below.  HAPPY HUNTING ….

Bart

Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX Monthly - note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX Monthly – note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX weekly log ... watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from2009
SBUX weekly log … watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from 2009


 

one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?

first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line

Page_15-10-10_11-27-56

I don’t see much of a correlation …..

How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES?  THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?

Page_15-10-10_11-30-44

now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX.  SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …

Is the ratio hitting some targets?  Ummmm, yes.

Page_15-10-10_11-25-58

so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO.  Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.

Bart

SBUX and Coffee Prices …

one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?

first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line

Page_15-10-10_11-27-56

I don’t see much of a correlation …..

How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES?  THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?

Page_15-10-10_11-30-44

now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX.  SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …

Is the ratio hitting some targets?  Ummmm, yes.

Page_15-10-10_11-25-58

so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO.  Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.

Bart

Coffee Correction Complete?

CLIFF NOTES:

  • Coffee Futures UP
  • SBUX SELL PATTERN complete.

See below for updated analysis:

W/ the engulfing nature of the candle from last weeks actions, a case can be made for a FLAT correction being complete and coffee resuming it’s move up.

Main20150110072512

also, here’s an updated chart of SBUX and note the BUTTERFLY SELL PATTERN that has completed.

Main20150110072922

here’s the relative strength chart of coffee and SBUX.  Note, the ratio has also finished correcting and that “should” put pressure on SBUX.

Main20150110073514

 




 

my last post on SBUX saw the 73 area as the potential price target to finish a parabolic run.  it worked for almost a month but ultimately was defeated.

http://bartscharts.com/2013/08/21/sbux-and-the-land-of-not-real/

so like any good chartist it was “erase” and back to the drawing board.

one would think, as I did, that the price of coffee would certainly be a pretty close inverse relationship to the performance of SBUX.  not making any excuses for my no “economic courses” world but if the price of coffee goes up or down then wouldn’t that affect profitability?  here’s the chart …

Coffee (line) and SBUX (candles) plotted together ...
Coffee (line) and SBUX (candles) plotted together …

I can look at this one till I am blue in the face and I really can’t see any correlations … in fact, they both took off together for 10 years and, back in 1997 as prices came tumbling down (as now) SBUX just kept rising.  this confused me …there has to be “some” correlation doesn’t there?

so on this wonderful fall morning it came to me “why not try the relative strength of coffee vs SBUX using ratio analysis (KC #F / SBUX)?”  and, well, there it was … when Coffee has LESS relative strength (candles are going down) then SBUX rolls like the Crimson Tide.  however, when the price of Coffee starts to outperform on a relative strength basis (the candles go up) then the price of SBUX flips on a dime.  Picture paints a thousand words …

relative strength of Coffee/SBUX.
relative strength of Coffee/SBUX.

so, as someone who is a pure PATTERN recognition chartist, naturally I want to find the PATTERN on this ratio that will signal a bottom and cause the price of SBUX to crack and, once again, prove Sir Isaac Newton correct that something that goes UP will, ultimately, come down.  (read: gravity)  This move in SBUX is amazing .. what is even more amazing is noting the ratio support, once broken in 06/2012 (blue horizontal line at bottom right of chart) is when the parabolic advance really began in earnest …

ending diagonal and bullish divergence present for the ratio
ending diagonal and bullish divergence present for the ratio

there isn’t a clear pattern coming into play as I look at the monthly and weekly charts …standard projection/extension techniques have targets that are (-) numbers and that “dog don’t hunt” so we can use RSI bullish divergence (present), contracting ending diagonal like pattern (present), very little volatility (note the small candles) (present) and the fact that we are coming to extremely important support on the continuous contract (.786 retrace from a monthly node)

Coffee Continuous Contract Monthly approaching major support
Coffee Continuous Contract Monthly approaching major support

if not NOW then, in the very near future, believe 1) Coffee will find significant support and 2) the relative strength of Coffee vs SBUX will bottom and start back up and 3) this will cause the parabolic advance of SBUX to flame out …. it is inevitable.

SBUX potential targets and count that doesn't break any rules (valid (?))
SBUX potential targets and count that doesn’t break any rules (valid (?))

A monster move …

a lot of work goes  into finding high probability set-ups … this was our last post on Coffee Futures and SBUX.  I had been trying to find an end (not trying to call a top but simply look for a pattern) to the SBUX run.  Ratio analysis was finally sealed the deal for me …

SBUX and Coffee Futures

the cliff notes was that it wasn’t the price of coffee but the relative strength (COFFEE/SBUX) that had synced nicely.

the Coffee futures came down to the monthly node ID’d here:

coffee futuresand the result …

Main20140303043121

folks, this is a monster move!  so what happened to the ratio?

the COFFEE/SBUX ratio before:

coffee sbux ratio

the COFFEE/SBUX ratio after:

Main20140303045517

here’s the charts of SBUX and GMCR

Main20140303050326 Main20140303050250

SBUX monthly signal reversal candle a couple bucks away

here’s the post on SBUX:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/11/03/sbux-and-coffee-futures/

the RELATIVE STRENGTH of Coffee Futures to SBUX has a montly BUY signal and the post above showed how inflections of Coffee relative strength w/ regards to SBUX usually gave one a “heads up” on price action. the geometry of the PATTERN at/around 81 is presented, again, below.   a monthly signal reversal candle (SRC) is around 74.51.

SBUX potential targets and count that doesn't break any rules (valid (?))
SBUX potential targets and count that doesn’t break any rules (valid (?))

 

SBUX SELL SIGNAL monthly approaching
SBUX SELL SIGNAL monthly approaching

 

SBUX and Coffee Futures

my last post on SBUX saw the 73 area as the potential price target to finish a parabolic run.  it worked for almost a month but ultimately was defeated.

http://bartscharts.com/2013/08/21/sbux-and-the-land-of-not-real/

so like any good chartist it was “erase” and back to the drawing board.

one would think, as I did, that the price of coffee would certainly be a pretty close inverse relationship to the performance of SBUX.  not making any excuses for my no “economic courses” world but if the price of coffee goes up or down then wouldn’t that affect profitability?  here’s the chart …

Coffee (line) and SBUX (candles) plotted together ...
Coffee (line) and SBUX (candles) plotted together …

I can look at this one till I am blue in the face and I really can’t see any correlations … in fact, they both took off together for 10 years and, back in 1997 as prices came tumbling down (as now) SBUX just kept rising.  this confused me …there has to be “some” correlation doesn’t there?

so on this wonderful fall morning it came to me “why not try the relative strength of coffee vs SBUX using ratio analysis (KC #F / SBUX)?”  and, well, there it was … when Coffee has LESS relative strength (candles are going down) then SBUX rolls like the Crimson Tide.  however, when the price of Coffee starts to outperform on a relative strength basis (the candles go up) then the price of SBUX flips on a dime.  Picture paints a thousand words …

relative strength of Coffee/SBUX.
relative strength of Coffee/SBUX.

so, as someone who is a pure PATTERN recognition chartist, naturally I want to find the PATTERN on this ratio that will signal a bottom and cause the price of SBUX to crack and, once again, prove Sir Isaac Newton correct that something that goes UP will, ultimately, come down.  (read: gravity)  This move in SBUX is amazing .. what is even more amazing is noting the ratio support, once broken in 06/2012 (blue horizontal line at bottom right of chart) is when the parabolic advance really began in earnest …

ending diagonal and bullish divergence present for the ratio
ending diagonal and bullish divergence present for the ratio

there isn’t a clear pattern coming into play as I look at the monthly and weekly charts …standard projection/extension techniques have targets that are (-) numbers and that “dog don’t hunt” so we can use RSI bullish divergence (present), contracting ending diagonal like pattern (present), very little volatility (note the small candles) (present) and the fact that we are coming to extremely important support on the continuous contract (.786 retrace from a monthly node)

Coffee Continuous Contract Monthly approaching major support
Coffee Continuous Contract Monthly approaching major support

if not NOW then, in the very near future, believe 1) Coffee will find significant support and 2) the relative strength of Coffee vs SBUX will bottom and start back up and 3) this will cause the parabolic advance of SBUX to flame out …. it is inevitable.

SBUX potential targets and count that doesn't break any rules (valid (?))
SBUX potential targets and count that doesn’t break any rules (valid (?))

SBUX and the land of “not real”

A very good and long time friend of mine has the unique opportunity to work in the intelligence community. From time to time, we meet at $SBUX and just sit and watch the people move in/out of the store w/ their 5$ coffee’s. He always remarks how $SBUX “is not the real world” and that his office is the real world. True or not, I do consider this company a contrarian indicator. The market, in my world, is the sum of the vibrational energy of the masses. And, if the masses are still willing to pay outrageous prices for their fix then, the market is simply not ready to go down. This chart has me extremely interested …lot’s of geometry equals lots of resistance. Take a peak ….SBUX Monthly