SBUX and Coffee Prices …update 10/30/2015 to the update 8/27/2016

 

08/27/2016

the ratio projections shown below nailed the high (recent) in SBUX

we now find the ratio sitting on a cliff of support – above the support SBUX should start to improve.

below the cliff of support then expect SBUX to continue it’s downward slide.

it’s not about the ACTUAL prices in SBUX and Coffee but the relative strength of coffee prices and SBUX.

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

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Page_16-08-27_18-14-39

 

Page_16-08-27_18-16-01

 

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here’s the cliff of support for the future on a weekly chart:

Page_16-08-27_18-21-08

 


Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion.  However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio.  There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end.  With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short.  Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below.  HAPPY HUNTING ….

Bart

Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE

Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE

SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)

SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)

SBUX Monthly - note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit

SBUX Monthly – note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit

SBUX weekly log ... watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from2009

SBUX weekly log … watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from 2009



 

one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?

first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line

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I don’t see much of a correlation …..

How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES?  THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?

Page_15-10-10_11-30-44

now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX.  SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …

Is the ratio hitting some targets?  Ummmm, yes.

Page_15-10-10_11-25-58

so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO.  Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.

Bart

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