Last post on the DJIA: https://bartscharts.com/2023/12/18/dow-jones-industrial-average-december-18-2023/
Just updating the DJIA average post charts …
The entire read area is the big zone of resistance. So, while it is exciting to see the strength of the market (s) – they are banging into STIFF resistance.
So, CAVEAT EMPTOR, for now … let’s see them blow thru the above resistance before I really get on the bandwagon.
Then there is my “go to” – XLP / $NYA.
Yes, there are only 30 stocks compared to the 5000+ for the NYA, I’m looking for “institutional sentiment” by the ratio.
The thesis being IF this was truly RISK ON THEN this ratio would be falling hard. Note, it is not. In fact, it found support at the largest (pink) corrective move in the history of the ration (roughly 20+ years) and there was a “daily 3 drives” right at that level and, thus far, it’s showing strength.
Hence, the market should be finding resistance/going down … it’s not so something is amiss now isn’t it? Yes.
Either the ratio blows thru (to the downside) the .618 retracement and the .618 abcd and the largest measured move down ever (pink arrow) and, finally, a daily 3 drives then YES this is a very bullish market and the ratio will probably go lower causing the markets to explode even higher and target the lower level … then she tops.
Who knows? For now, I’m just waiting to see which way she blows and then try (operative word) to get a piece of it and not be greedy or emotional. Tough sometimes, isn’t it?
Then we can’t forget to mention the coolest/craziest square out that we’ll ever see in our lifetimes again – today is 18, 121 calendar days from the all time low in 1974. I took a look at the last time the trend line was hit and it took almost 5 months for the market to finally give away. So, perhaps we shuck and jive up hear up and down until she just gives? Certainly a possibility….
Take a look at the chart on the hourly. Note, the “exact” trend line could be off w/ slippage and the chart package but close enough. So, I just don’t see the market taking off like crazy w/ this square out happening – now. But, the market is always right, so maybe it doesn’t care about the biggest square out ever ? Perhaps not?
