TLT – February 2, 2024

For now, I see this as an A-B-C correction w/ a move down occurring which should be BOUGHT to take up into the mid 100’s – for now.

I say for now because I’m a little “stung” (not that bad but just “stunned” ) I didn’t see the size of the rally in equities. I admit it, I was too stuck into “another leg down” (which I wanted to BUY OBTW) but that “one more leg down” never came … and a parabolic blow off had occurred. Nailed the October low but … missed the move.

So, just like I feel comfortable stocks are setting up for a BIG MOVE down (now or soon’ish) I feel pretty good that the low we made was the end of a 5 count move. If not, then we finsihed a 3 down around 84 and we have another move down below 84. Who knows …

But, given that I am “correct” I have put realistic target up there because, in this current environment, the TLT could go all the way up to 180 and STILL be against the “trend” which – I believe started w/ the high back a couple years ago.

And that, for me, is the key … that was a huge thumping and, the ‘look and feel’, tells me this isn’t going to be ‘easy’ or ‘cut and dry’ – can you President Biden enjoying the FED “raising rates” during and election year? Or, certainly would love for him to “cut rates” and how in the world , seriously, is he going to do that …?

So, this was a GREAT run down in TLT -in which I played LONG TBT and still long and hold a position – but from a “time” perspective I just think we need more TIME so I’m looking to BUY TLT after I see what happens at 91.18.