08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below. A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …
Bart
07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive. key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.
Be well my friends … Bart
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the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles) on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.
also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming. in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform. however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely. A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed. Monitor the ratio for clues ..
Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.
Bart
Thank you very much,so do you think it is still possible to complete the triangle for another important leg down till 100 area in the next few months,also because all the markets and especially US markets are very very high?
Yes, we have to see how / if the levels shown are respected. the .786 retracement is still in play so ‘nothing’ has changed that much. IF we break thru on a daily/weekly close above the .786 I will have to erease and relook. does that help? B
Yes,thank you and good holidays.
Excuse me,a last comment,please…if the downtrend will begin which is the target of the correction? Fibonacci retracement of 50% at 109, or 61,8% at 101,5 or perhaps 78,6% at 90,8? Thank you again if you reply,
Paolo – first we need to get it to start moving down. 🙂 For now, let’s watch the up trend line and get that broken first. Bigger picture – dare I say – is that we take out the 77 level if this entire ‘big picture’ triangle thesis is correct. Your analysis of the levels as targets are initial targets yes, but we need to get it moving down first. does that help? Bart
Yes,thank you very much. 🙂