why we should care about Australia redux from November 2014

the All Ordinaries has gone up and hit the target shown below and, while the .786 retracement target has not been hit, it appears a top could be in place. Over the coming weeks/days watch this one closely for an opportunity to trade a pattern to the short side.

All Ordinaries - weekly w/ target area hit

All Ordinaries – weekly w/ target area hit

 

All Ordinaries w/ LOG trend line - watch a weekly or monthly close below

All Ordinaries w/ LOG trend line – watch a weekly or monthly close below

Main20150702133519

EWA ETF for Australia is sitting on a cliff of support

EWA ETF for Australia is sitting on a cliff of support

 

Gasoline Futures broke badly but EWA held up.  Gas has rallied but EWA has not .. watch gasoline for next directional move of EWA

Gasoline Futures broke badly but EWA held up. Gas has rallied but EWA has not .. watch gasoline for next directional move of EWA



November 2014:

the All ordinaries never hit the target SELL pattern and this PATTERN is still valid.  the zone of 5760-5835 is the key w/ the old realiable .786 retrace up at 6060 the highest it “should” go if the SELL PATTERN is valid.  As you know we NEVER know which one works or doesn’t …

what makes this particularly relevant, in my HUMBLED opinion is it’s correlation to the AUDJPY and the VERY interesting PATTERN that is appearing w/ regards to the AUDJPY.  For a review, here is the pattern on the All Ordinaries:

All Ordinaries SELL PATTERN

All Ordinaries SELL PATTERN

here’s the importance of the AUDJPY and the All Ordinaries …

AUD vs USD and All Ordinaries

AUD vs USD and All Ordinaries

so we have a SELL PATTERN on the All Ordinaries so that “should” cause the YEN to strengthen against the AUSSIE .. ONE PERCENT OPPOSITE OF THE INTERVENTION WHICH TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY!  as you well know, I know NOTHING about the fundamentals behind this move.  And I don’t care … but IF the All Ordinaries SELL works THEN historically speaking the PATTERNS and CHARTS tell us the YEN will strengthen against the Aussie …here’s the charts:

ADUJPY note same PATTERN

ADUJPY note same PATTERN

look at this MIRROR IMAGE foldback …

mirror image foldback

mirror image foldback

 

mirror image foldback point 2009

mirror image foldback point 2009

here’s the PATTERN, again, on the AUDJPY …

AUDJPY pattern

AUDJPY pattern

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