IBM pattern failure …

11/2/2018 – ouch.

The area labeled ‘FAILURE OF PATTERN BELOW’ is one of those levels that ‘should’ have acted as extremely nice support for IBM. Guess the operative word is ‘should’ w/ regard to that last sentence.  Take a look at that candle … boom. That folks, is what a pattern failure looks like.

so, if you look below, it’s now setting up for a support zone (dare I say BUY zone) in/around 88-89.  I’ll do some more work on it over the weekend but the BUY PATTERN mentioned w/ @seeitmarket went the way of the buffalo.

Bart

 

Is IBM Stock Heading Into The Buy Zone Again?

certainly appears to be setting up for a nice one …

Bart

Continuing to Monitor the XLP / NYA important ratio …

did this for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket: https://www.seeitmarket.com/are-consumer-staples-signaling-a-volatility-omen-17331/

here’s an update as of Friday’s close:

If I learned anything from getting my CMT it was the power of ration analysis.  X/Y …. If X is stronger the chart goes up and if Y is stronger then the chart goes down. And, since we are charting securities guess what works on them –the PATTERNS.  So the theory goes IF the insititutions are risk off the chart goes down and volatility is suppressed.  If the institutions are risk adverse then the chart goes up and volatility picks up and stocks sell off.

Thesis:

  • MONTHLY of XLP / NYSE Index w/ candles being the ratio and the blue line being the NYSE Index.
    • Note, at EVERY major inflection of the NYSE Index the RATIO pivoted … it either inflected to go up or down BUT every move of the NYSE Index respected this move.
  • Monthly XLP / NYSE Index.
    • Note, most oversold in 6 years and slammed into the .382.  Weekly bearish close … did expect it to respect this area and w/ Bradley Date, Martin Armstrong Directional Change and the note from Mike – along, and most importantly, the PATTERNS I did expect this to find support and give at least a daily BUY signal.  It has not done that …but all is not lost.
  • Monthly XLP/ NYSE Index
    • Note, if we don’t find support here then we have a measured move target a little lower and, ultimately the big green target …
  • Daily XLP/NYSE Index
    • Note, the time component (somewhat of a 3 drives to a bottom but still in line w/ ‘time’ of every rally ….
    • Note, the 1.618 w/ an AB=CD (nice time on AB=CD) right at our .382 from the all time low
  • Intraday (5 minute) XLP / NYSE
    • Yes, we closed at the lows … but yes we ‘really didn’t’ break the lows so in order for this market to pivot and correct next week believe this level needs to hold and rally tomorrow morning.

 

Conclusion: believe this ratio remains important for the overall health of the market and if it can hold these lows then volatility should uptick and the market sells off. IF we breakdown from these levels THEN we’ll seek the next lower target and the market will continue top march up a wall of worry.

had some fun w/ $AMZN over @seeitmarket an Update

04/14/2017 – just a quick update that we are really close or need a little bit more for the SRC to be invoked on AMZN. also, note the shooting star candle present and also the doji like candles that started most corrective moves.

probability lends itself to be cautious and sit on ones hands to assess the next couple weeks of AMZN price action.

as you can see by the chart below a “normal” correction has been around -30 percent ….

have a GREAT weekend w/ family and friends.

B

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04/06/2017 – its been a while but did do an update for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket:

https://www.seeitmarket.com/amazon-stock-chart-update-amzn-defying-gravity-16736/

After this post, went and did a peak at the measured moves and compared the last one to musical notes. basically, the measured move extended base on the 12th root of 2 or 1.05946.  the other method I used, taught to me by Michael Jenkins was a simple, yet powerful, projection technique using the “move down” to balance w/ the same move up (the purple arrows).

As one can see, it moved roughly 2 percent past the measured move target and we still do not have a SRC. Since the high candle started this week, we use the LOW of the high monthly candle as the “new” SRC base.  That “new” SRC if looking for the short is 885.

Until we get a monthly or weekly close below 885 I would stay away  from the short side. I relative terms, we are close to 1000 and in this euphoric and unrelenting bull market how cool would it be to hit 1000 / share for AMZN.

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http://www.seeitmarket.com/shares-amazon-amzn-nearing-top-trading-15950/

had some fun w/ $AMZN over @seeitmarket an Update

04/06/2017 – its been a while but did do an update for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket:

https://www.seeitmarket.com/amazon-stock-chart-update-amzn-defying-gravity-16736/

After this post, went and did a peak at the measured moves and compared the last one to musical notes. basically, the measured move extended base on the 12th root of 2 or 1.05946.  the other method I used, taught to me by Michael Jenkins was a simple, yet powerful, projection technique using the “move down” to balance w/ the same move up (the purple arrows).

As one can see, it moved roughly 2 percent past the measured move target and we still do not have a SRC. Since the high candle started this week, we use the LOW of the high monthly candle as the “new” SRC base.  That “new” SRC if looking for the short is 885.

Until we get a monthly or weekly close below 885 I would stay away  from the short side. I relative terms, we are close to 1000 and in this euphoric and unrelenting bull market how cool would it be to hit 1000 / share for AMZN.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

http://www.seeitmarket.com/shares-amazon-amzn-nearing-top-trading-15950/