Utilities – again, ugh

If you’ve been following me, I saw a very nice SELL PRICE and TIME PATTERN on the Utilities. It worked for a while and then failed as the Utilities continued to climb. I was stopped out of the TBT long I tried and, while not exactly correlated, you can sometimes look at the Utilities and Rates. Figured w/ the SELL PATTERN coming on the Utilities then the TBT should go up. They failed. Back to the drawing board.

so, with fresh eyes, again, I took a look at the Utilities and – again – I see a long term SELL Utilities hitting right now. So, again, folks I’m a pure play pattern recognition investor. ZERO fundamentals. A lot of times the PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t … probability is in my favor.

for your purview, the DJ Utilities Index and the XLU. Also, threw in a chart showing the 30 year long bond overlaid on the DJ Utilities for what it’s worth. look at the divergence over the past year or so … hmmmm.

Utilities – holding up pretty nicely

11/25/2018 – you can see some of the former work on the Dow Jones Utility Index here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/01/02/i-still-think-this-is-a-big-deal-utilities-an-update-and-another-update/

as you can see, the index went right up into the target area and fell pretty nicely. that being said, it has held up rather nicely and just recently went up and tagged a nice retracement level.  probability is that it should start back down .. but, there’s the deal, look at the stair steps (higher lows) on the index and as I looked at this monthly chart I noticed – there has never been an AB-CD type corrective move.  so, we are setting up for the first one in roughly 40 years.  IF, the big if, we get down as shown by the red arrows on the current price chart THEN we’ll have to give it a shot and buy it ..

it will be the first one in 40+ years.

stay tuned. this strength is interesting …

hope all had a wonderful weekend and great time w/ family and friends if celebrating Thanksgiving!

Bart

Fractal Present on the Utilities – check it out

August 25, 2014:

CLIFF NOTES: please see below to understand the importance of our recent high at 577.  The long term PATTERN from the all time low completed.  Now, we have the beginning formation of the trusted and true head and shoulders pattern on the DJ Utility Index.  Why is this important …?  Well, look below at the fractal that existed at the top in 2007-2008.  It’s exactly the same PATTERN.  So, in a nutshell:

  • we completed a major pattern on the Utilities up at 577.
  • a head and shoulders pattern is forming the right shoulder, now.
  • the same FRACTAL is present at the time, here’s a cool video to show fractals at work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVwoYVkg-m4

folks it’s a PATTERN — it WILL work or it WON’t but it’s a PATTERN.

fractal pattern on the Utilities
fractal pattern on the Utilities

 

4 hour chart showing formation of potential head and shoulders
4 hour chart showing formation of potential head and shoulders


 


 

 

 

April 05, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: I am a patter recognition chartist.  I am NOT trying to be overtly bullish or bearish.  Just using this forum to show the PATTERNS that area ppearing.

On the DJ Transports we have completed a MAJOR AB=CD sell pattern w/ a 1.618 extension.  That is bearish.  It’s particularly bearish because the pattern using the former all time highs and lows. I am also showing the Utilities almost completing a very bearish pattern.  Again … heads up folks, these are NOT 60 minute intraday scalping trades.  These are MAJOR patterns that bear close watching.

DJ Transports
DJ Transports

 

DJ Utilities
DJ Utilities

DJ Transports and Utilities updated

CLIFF NOTES: I am a patter recognition chartist.  I am NOT trying to be overtly bullish or bearish.  Just using this forum to show the PATTERNS that area ppearing.

On the DJ Transports we have completed a MAJOR AB=CD sell pattern w/ a 1.618 extension.  That is bearish.  It’s particularly bearish because the pattern using the former all time highs and lows. I am also showing the Utilities almost completing a very bearish pattern.  Again … heads up folks, these are NOT 60 minute intraday scalping trades.  These are MAJOR patterns that bear close watching.

DJ Transports
DJ Transports

 

DJ Utilities
DJ Utilities

Dow Jones Utilities Long Term (1942) Price Pattern

CLIFF NOTES: major target appearing on Dow Jones Utilities at/around 573.  Definitely the stronger of the Dow components but 1) monthly divergence is presenting itself, 2) a possible 5 wave (monthly) count completing, 3) THE AB=CD pattern from the all time low in 1942 is a little higher …so, believe this is the most important index to watch over the next couple weeks.

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Utilities (DJUI) update

Utilities as a safe play … not yet!

Utilities broke out of the potential triangle ID’d a couple days ago … the move up had volume and note the large candle present.  The chart below shows the next pattern w/ regard to a bearish outlook on the Utilities sector.

DJUI SELL pattern
DJUI SELL pattern

if this level does not hold I will work backwards and find out where my analysis was wrong and off track w/ regards to the 5 waves labeled 1 or A.

 

Utilities as a safe play … not yet!

there has been speculation that Utilities are a safe play in a deflationary environment.  I don’t know what the fundamentals say, but I do believe we are starting another wave down in the Utilities.  After a very clear 5 waves down into the low of 2009, they have behaved much like everything and bounced rather nicely.  One caveat … they didn’t make a new high as the rest of the indices were soaring.  So, where do I “think” they are now …? If we neck down into a daily chart I am going to say the “bounce” from 2009 ended in April 2013 in/around 540.  That’s either a BIG 2 or BIG B.  Since then we carved a very “Ray Charles” count in 5 waves and just completed (today) the last leg of a triangle labeled a-b-c-d-e.  If we take out the triple top at 512 then perhaps a little higher, a little change count and we can make it a-b-c.  What am I trying to say … we have completed a CORRECTIVE PATTERN either HERE or a little higher and the utilities should start down in a potentially violent and large way.

the other thing I see is a FOLDBACK pattern that has folded back up the 2000-2002 meltdown.  That puts us cresting at the top for another fall …patterns SUGGEST we foldback down to the left in a bear market for utilities.

long term look at a potential foldback in the DJUA
long term look at a potential foldback in the DJUA

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