most important chart to end 2014 .. revisited in December 2015… revisited in Dec 2016

12/31/2016 – I count 5 waves UP so let’s see if the USD relents a little.  Folks, this is a big deal and will be interesting to see what the Trump administration is able to do OR not w/ this one ….

KABOOM goes the USD vs Chinese Yuan … below you’ll see when I first posted on the YUAN.  Pattern was complete .. Monthly SRC – new trend begins.

big deal folks .. Stay tuned.

Bart

page_16-12-31_15-15-58

 

 



Folks, pay attention here … I know I can’t make this my “most important chart of 2016” like I did last year for 2015 but the dollar is on the move again versus the Chinese Yuan.

this is a big deal folks …

Page_15-12-09_21-26-11




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I felt pretty strongly about this one back at the tip of the year. I still do … here’s what I know – FX is the name of the game.  Again, you can watch, talk and also make a lot of money trading the $YELP, $GPRO, $GOOGL, $AAPL, etc of the world but the REAL market is the currency market … this past year we have had a very real race to debase.  and, quite frankly, it ain’t good folks.

This move by the Chinese was 1) expected and 2) ranks up there as a very big deal … nothing to really watch now, believe they are committed to depreciating their currency also.

One has to ask .. why is the worlds second largest economy taking these measures? Well, of course it’s because all is well and the global economy is doing GREAT!  Or, could it be a  global sovereign debt crisis and a house of cards?

HouseofCards-300x294

 

 



Folks, there is a major global move occurring in the biggest market in the world – the FX market.

Not only is the YEN,RUBBLE and EURO simply crashing the Chinese Yuan continues to weaken against the USD.  This is a big deal and should be watched closely. We’ve been blogging about it for a while (http://bartscharts.com//?s=yuan )

Appears, for now, our pattern has worked and the $$$ has again started to rise …

Main20141206123218Main20141206123355

most important chart to end 2014 .. revisited in December 2015

Folks, pay attention here … I know I can’t make this my “most important chart of 2016” like I did last year for 2015 but the dollar is on the move again versus the Chinese Yuan.

this is a big deal folks …

Page_15-12-09_21-26-11




Main20150813122343

I felt pretty strongly about this one back at the tip of the year. I still do … here’s what I know – FX is the name of the game.  Again, you can watch, talk and also make a lot of money trading the $YELP, $GPRO, $GOOGL, $AAPL, etc of the world but the REAL market is the currency market … this past year we have had a very real race to debase.  and, quite frankly, it ain’t good folks.

This move by the Chinese was 1) expected and 2) ranks up there as a very big deal … nothing to really watch now, believe they are committed to depreciating their currency also.

One has to ask .. why is the worlds second largest economy taking these measures? Well, of course it’s because all is well and the global economy is doing GREAT!  Or, could it be a  global sovereign debt crisis and a house of cards?

HouseofCards-300x294

 

 



Folks, there is a major global move occurring in the biggest market in the world – the FX market.

Not only is the YEN,RUBBLE and EURO simply crashing the Chinese Yuan continues to weaken against the USD.  This is a big deal and should be watched closely. We’ve been blogging about it for a while (http://bartscharts.com//?s=yuan )

Appears, for now, our pattern has worked and the $$$ has again started to rise …

Main20141206123218Main20141206123355

Still the most important chart out there …redux

I would say a “high percentage” of the Americans out there are going to be really excited about $SHAK doing a secondary offering when, overnight, the WORLD’s 2nd largest economy was at it again …

Bloomberg: “China’s move has raised the risk of a “currency war” as export rivals seek a weaker exchange rate to stay competitive, according to Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia.

“It’s hard to believe this will be a one-off adjustment,” Roach said. “In a weak global economy, it will take a lot more than a 1.9 percent devaluation to jump-start sagging Chinese exports. That raises the distinct possibility of a new and increasingly destabilizing skirmish in the ever-widening global currency war. The race to the bottom just became a good deal more treacherous.””

WSJ: “The stability in the [yuan] over the past few months, in the face of a stronger [U.S. dollar], had helped to serve as somewhat of an anchor for the region’s currencies,” said Khoon Goh, senior forex strategist at ANZ Research. “With today’s move, this is clearly no longer the case.” The risk of further yuan weakness, he added, would pressure Asian currencies even lower.”

USA Today: “A devalued currency is sure to boost foreign trade by making Chinese goods cheaper overseas. In the process, it helps guarantee that Chinese factories will keep their work forces mostly intact, with millions on payrolls, and help avoid the political turmoil that mass layoffs could produce.”

So, again, please pay attention to these moves folks.  They are “big time” and show the global macro picture … currencies run EVERYTHING.

That being said, as a pure play chartist/pattern recognition dude … 6.3351-6.3600 are key.  We get thru those and things could really heat up, so to speak.

Isn’t this fun?

Rock on, ok?

Bart

Chinese Yuan devalued overnight ...
Chinese Yuan devalued overnight …

 


 

09/06/2015

What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?

Main20150609203853

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

watch this … closely.

meanwhile, over in China ….

Yuan ... no change but does appear ready to move.
Yuan … no change but does appear ready to move.


 

 

 

What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?

Main20150609203853



 

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

 

Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete
Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete

watch this … closely.

Still the most important chart out there …

What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?

Main20150609203853



 

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

 

Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete
Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete

watch this … closely.

Chinese Yuan … decline continuing?

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

 

Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete
Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete

watch this … closely.

Chinese Yuan continued

in our last post we proposed 3 outcomes:

  • the intervention was a shot across the bow … ruffle the feathers, so to speak, of the derivatives and carry trades being worked on this “no brainer” trade…
  • it was the normal course of events, and things would return back to normal.
  • this was a trend change and it could have global repercussions.

obviously, we don’t want the last one and right now it appears that we are somewhere in between the first two bullets above.  that being said, trying to NOT take into account that this isn’t truly a liquid instrument I still “trust” that the patterns will prevail. So, some key levels are noted.  Let’s watch the show because the last thing we want is support to hold and then interventions and massive moves up to occur.

right now …everything is normal?

Main20140305220706

TOO BIG TO FAIL …again?

it’s Sunday night and another 10-12″ is coming our way in Leesburg, VA. The Asian markets are opening down 1-1.3% and EVERYONE is focusing on Ukraine. And, well, rightly so.  That being said, believe we also need to look over at China.  A  financial crisis is brewing.  The Chinese Yuan crashed last week due to intervention by the  Chinese government.  Why is this a big deal?  The same reason 2007-2008 was a thumping … D E R I V A T I V E S.  Leveraged carry trades have been the no brainer trade …that all got spooked last week.  The potential losses to the “too big to fail” banks is in the 100’s of billions …

Folks … get ready to rumble …

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