Chinese Yuan Pattern complete ….

 

09/11/2014: for all intensive purposes this BUY USD vs CHINESE YUAN pattern is complete … WATCH this closely as we continue to monitor the GLOBAL flow of funds.  I’m not a fundamentalist (I have nothing against it, I’m just not smart enough to understand it – remember – I draw pictures w/ crayons) but I am aware that 100’s of BILLIONS of dollars are closely aligned to the “EASY” (my emphasis) LONG Chinese vs USD and if we get another UP move (YUAN weakness) there could be nice little unwind ….

for now, all appears quiet on the Chinese front but don’t discount this patterns, as the YUAN could weaken big time and in the global flow of funds that is a big deal.

PATTERN COMPLETE - BUY USD vs CHINESE YUAN
PATTERN COMPLETE – BUY USD vs CHINESE YUAN

 


 

09/08/2014 – let’s not forget this looming shot across the bow.  It’s close/at our BUY level so watch this Currency Pair closely. The “trend” is DOWN so expect the levels shown to fail but if they don’t …that could be a “big deal.”

Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels
Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels


 

For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”

That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.

To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,”  (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD.  Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK.  Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets —  I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan.  If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.

There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc.  In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds.  The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.

If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin.  Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing.  Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE …  China, your next move please?

WATCH CLOSELY ….

B

 

on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years ... is that over?
on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years … is that over?
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)

Chinese Yuan Pattern forming ….

09/08/2014 – let’s not forget this looming shot across the bow.  It’s close/at our BUY level so watch this Currency Pair closely. The “trend” is DOWN so expect the levels shown to fail but if they don’t …that could be a “big deal.”

Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels
Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels


 

For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”

That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.

To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,”  (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD.  Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK.  Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets —  I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan.  If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.

There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc.  In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds.  The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.

If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin.  Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing.  Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE …  China, your next move please?

WATCH CLOSELY ….

B

 

on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years ... is that over?
on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years … is that over?
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)

Chinese Yuan Pattern forming ….

For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”

That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.

To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,”  (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD.  Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK.  Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets —  I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan.  If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.

There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc.  In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds.  The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.

If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin.  Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing.  Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE …  China, your next move please?

WATCH CLOSELY ….

B

 

on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years ... is that over?
on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years … is that over?
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)

quick look at China

in what appears to be the largest IPO ever ALIBABA should be coming to the street …pushing the limits of 20 BB it’s something to be watched.  Not for the John Q Public but for the banks Credit Suise, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, etc. are going to make 100’s of millions on this one.  So, I don’t think they will let this one go by the wayside …

ALIBABA
ALIBABA

but here’s what’s interesting … we have the Chinese Yuan FX pair causing quite the unwind and a representative ETF, FXI, of China is on a clff …here, take a look:

Main20140427180543 Main20140427180214

this sure is an amazing dance to watch … kind of reminds me of the Blackstone (BX) IPO .  These two charts should tell you the story:

Main20140427180842 Main20140427180948

the bears are getting hungry and this IPO is going to be one heck of a show. the biggest IPO in history couldn’t possibly end up w/ the same fate as BX? Could it …?  Stay tuned …

 

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