Crude Oil Update, ratio of XLE/NYA, HYG and Crude and a bunch of other stuff

11/10/2018 – overall, our key 75-76 level was hit and has caused the sell off. take a look at the charts below …

some critical developments:

  • the XLE/NYSE Index ratio has hit a perfect BUY PATTERN so expecting the energy complex to bounce/hold/consolidate as this level holds.  IF IT FAILS then the sell off will be pretty immense. So watch t his level.
  • on the Crude, anytime you have a .382 and .618 (.382+.618 = 1) present that should act as important S or R. In this case SUPPORT. we have some polarity present also so ‘expect’ a bounce in Crude … will update accordingly.
  • also, note the correlation between crude and HYG. (High Yield Bond ETF) … perhaps the carnage in Crude will stop at support levels indicated which ‘should’ keep HYG at bay (if the correlation is still holding) but if Crude busts thru then that support cliff for HYG should give away and then it will get very interesting
  • also, put the oldie but goodie of the HIGH on crude on my birthday and the subsequent low to show some geometry at work and the fact that long term charts can certainly help .. .a famous quote “there is nothing new under the sun.”

thanks reading …. B

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

06/03/2018 – sorry that i didn’t send out the charts below via my blog .. honestly, I think I just forgot and then went on some travel …big thing here is we hit an important high a week or so ago based on TIME so this could be a very important top in crude.

honestly not sure if we have completed a 4 ( if YES we have  BIG MOVE COMING lower) or an end to a bullish bounce and we are correcting to buy ..

either way, this should do it for crude for a while at least. will be watching and, again, apologize for not blogging earlier.

as an FYI, the charts are real time they were just sent out via email …

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

this is the update as of 06/001/2018:

Loonie, the Dollar and the Oil Services Index

CLIFF NOTES: USD support for BUY opportunity shown//very important divergence present in OSX and LOONIE vs USD.  for the life of the data they have moved opposite but for the past 2 years they have rolled together.  while they have lead/lagged they have, essentially, been doing the opposite at tops and bottoms.  When one tops the other bottoms and vice versa.

april 01 2014 CAD big low april 01 014 cad polarity april 01 cad buy

so, at times, one could look to the Oil Service Sector and see if a BUY or SELL pattern completed and then look for the opposite pattern to appear on the Loonie vs the USD.  For two years that has not been the case .. they are moving together.  They could roll together into infinity but something certainly doesn’t make sense …

Main20140401092100 Main20140401093154

so compare the commodity currencies (AUD/NZD/CAD) against each other ….BOOM a beautiful SELL PATTERN on the AUDCAD

Main20140401093637

CLIFF NOTES: Loonie “should” strengthen against the AUSSIE

how about CNZDCAD? not suprising — KIWI is kicking everyones butt right now … it’s at an all time high against the LOONIE w/ strength.

GBPCAD:

Main20140401094120

 

EURCAD:

Main20140401094403

CHFCAD:

Main20140401094633

 

CADJPY

Main20140401094955

Main20140401095216