Aussie vs USD updated – part 3
09/27/2015 – no pattern, no investment. big old move back down but am not in yet. have to wait for a pattern because ONLY then can I manage how much risk to take. sure looks heavy, but I see a BIG MONTHLY measured move at 6894 low. So, we’ll wait …also, gasoline futures haven’t made a new low either.
09/20/2015 – target zone was “OK” at holding back the AUD vs USD advance. (the FED craziness rolled thru it by 30 pips) but it did stop at the .707 retracement level – exactly. .707? (2, square root of 2=1.4142, 1/1.4142 = .707)
so, the current form, proportion and harmony tells me “lower” so I’m still WAITING for 7130 area.
gold/silver “should” be taking off for a “head fake” rally C wave that could be very powerful. hence my interest in Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie. I like the Aussie for reasons below – the long long term measured move hit exactly on September 06 2015. so, yes, I’ve have been sitting on my hands to go long for 14 days. and I’ll keep waiting till a BUY pattern emerges. 🙂
Gasoline futures are giving me a “better” picture because the FORM is very nice. take a peak below – see the 3 wave move UP into a new high – CLASSIC B WAVE STUFF. only problem is the recent price action I convoluted. but, USUALLY, when we have a 3 wave move UP into a new high the move down is 1.618 of the first move down .. shown below.
So, we wait.
09/08/2015 – my target area/zone got crunched pretty bad, and my count is wrong. all that being said, I didn’t take into account the measured move from 89-01. quite frankly, w/ all that ‘stuff’ coming into the areas as shown below I didn’t think it could. So the age old adage of “thinking” versus “seeing” left my target thumped. W/ so much thrust and momentum going I did not take the long trade but have been waiting …
but, as of last night it has give us a DAILY SRC and when I went back and erased everything I saw a monster cycle coming in and the measured move hit perfectly …hmmm.
how to play ? WAIT for a PATTERN to appear on perhaps a 60 minute chart .. watch gasoline futures and crude and the All Ordinaries for a sign of life and also the Chinese market …
here’s the updated chart:
will update (real time) the play here and the risk and the real time move of a dude in his home juggling dynamite w/ gorilla’s in a cage .. cool hugh?
Folks, back in October the post below the two dash lines was searching for a low to be in place on the AUD. The form and proportion were just about right. However, w/ the big move in crude, the interest rate extravaganza and the a whole host of other fundamental reasons the real issue is the PATTERN level didn’t work … it went approximately 300 pips below. HOWEVER, the overall thesis that the Aussie is bottoming versus the dollar still holds true. It’s showing some nice strength tonight …would love to get a very nice pullback to go long in/around these levels.
Updated charts below:
Note the monthly RSI levels … the BIG MOVES UP occurred right where we are sitting. Also, a case can be made that 4 is complete and we are going to new highs …
last time I checked the Aussie wasn’t part of the US Dollar index … so, watch this one closely. At a minimum we are completing/completed an A and a nice B wave up is to occur.
let’s just get on the right side of the trade and right now that looks like bullish entry for the AUD vs USD.
The Aussie has been correcting for a while and, folks, the move down from 1.100 ish certainly appears to be corrective. What does that mean? We are “at” or “near the beginning of a multi year advance that will take out the high July 2011. Here’s the monthly picture …
TILT … everyone is talking about US Dollar strength – yes, but they are talking about the dollar index which the Aussie isn’t even a part of it. Or if it is the weight is negligible so in this case we have to take this pair as a single entity – not a weighted index.
here’s the weekly:
note the 3 waves down … that is the key. it was not a 5 wave movement. has this correction been complex – yes. But it’s falling right in line w/ a double three labeled w,x,y.
and, the daily, shown below, just completed 5 waves down. While it would be perfect symmetrical three drives to a bottom is we go down and attack 8400 – there is a good case to be made that a low is in place. we’ll have to wait for an intraday pattern to appear …
and finally, we’ll see the move down on a 60 minute chart is a clearly defined 5 waves.
so … there ya have it.
what to do? Well, our thesis is we are beginning a multi year move to take out the old highs from 2011. IF THAT IS CORRECT THEN WE ARE IN the first stages of the advance. the first move up (wave 1) will complete and then wave 2 will come and, more than likely, w/ a vengeance because everyone thinks the “old trend” is in play. That’s the BUYING OPPORTUNITY and price should never go below the low that was formed last week.
stay tuned …get ready to rumble.