BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets.
After the Silver post the inquiries regarding Gold have flooded in … so, in part 1 we’ll take a look at the Gold/Silver Index. The $XAU is the Philidelphia Gold/Silver Index and consists of 16 precious metal miningcompanies. This index and the $BUGS are the two most watched precious metal indices in the world. The index and the spot prices of Gold and Silver have moved in sync, nicely at the low in 2008 and mostly on the way up and down. The interesting aspect to look at is the lagin the spot gold price once the index had reached it’s target …this is what I’m looking at for a reference point. As you can see, the recent low in/around 82 was a very strong harmonic target and fits nicely into a potential big low for the index. However, when we show spot Gold in part 2 we have the potential (which would fit nicely into our preferred sequence of events) for the Spot Gold to turn in/around here for one more low. I would like to see the $XAU consolidate/pause/bounce around the recent lows while gold finishes one final leg before beginning a POTENTIALLY explosive BULL MOVE. Stay tuned and enjoy the charts … again, know nothing about the fundamentals of the Gold metal or the 16 companies just following the bouncing ball of patterns that can make very nice entries to manage risk possible.
Will update the Spot Gold chart later this afternoon or tomorrow … back to mowing the grass.
note, the forecasted pattern held for a potential major top. this was during the parabolic runs of gold and silverAs the move was underway AND the metals had topped, this became a very nice target to watchthe count, as we continue to see weakness in metals…. (the POTENTIAL count)Here comes the targetNote, at the level approached targets are furiously calculated/confirmed for potential supportSome more geometry but the index is giving us a potential signal that this is it …Note the synchronicity and also the delay as the index waited for the parabolic run to endA potential count …. potential being the operative word
However, certainly appears some stiff resistance is overhead. Wait for a signal reversal candle/bar (weekly) for confirmation that we are at/near a top.
Notably, w/ IPO’s , it’s tough to count the initial move. In this case, an ASSUMPTION is made that the first correction from 122 – 56 is a 2 and then we go in a very strong and powerful wave 3. It’s “easy” to see 5 waves and w/ this much thrust/momentum I am inclined to say this is a 3 w/ a 4 to come and then another buy after a correction. The major corrections have lasted almost a year 1-2 and (1)-(2). The minor corrections (3)-(4) are a good 6 months long so caveat emptor is warranted from “now” to perhaps another 5-10% higher ….
Have a great weekend.
and, as always, rock on!
Bart
PS — might be interesting to watch 261.80 and 271.82
Here’s an update to the AMZN charts below …while I still feel this count is correct, we did make another high. Therefore, new targets calculated. I like to call the following chart, below, “musical polarity.” As you can see, the blue arrow to the left is the “rock hitting the water” and it causes the “waves.” In this case we try to align price and time to PROJECT areas of support and resistance. We use the past support/resistance and time components to project potential inflection points.
Note how the first arc down EXACTLY nails the low in TIME ….I then use the next points in price to project using 1.1892 (musical note C of equal octave scale) and 2.0 which is the “next octave. as you can see they were important points in TIME and PRICE. The 3 o’clock position on the arcs are timing components. All this tells us is that we have a “good arc” or “good splash of the rock.”
Now my eye is turned to the yellow highlighed area in/around 2007-2008. Note, by expanding the initial arc by 2.618 (fibonacci) and 2.71828 (natural log) we have arcs that EXACTLY gravitate price to them and the timing of the low is precise. Again, all that tells us is that we have a good arc. Now, we project all the way up to the top of the circle and now we have a target zone. one of the targets was hit Friday and we’ll see if the upper is hit around 329. We have NOT been given a signal reversal candle so the trend is still alive ….again, I like the count so I’m now “looking” for targets to adjust/confirm targets.
Still believe and looking for a TOP in AMZN to come ….
waves ….
The waves in AMZN ($AMZN) have been extremely harmonic and, quite powerful to the upside. I’ve included a set of charts that are mean to show you the “subdivisions” that lead to, as my best, subjective, viewpoint can produce. Elliott Wave is hard and you either “see it” or you don’t. What most people do is count and use it as their only technical method. I never use it alone and, usually, only count when I have some very strong targets that have appeared ….
So, as you walk thru the charts, what I’m trying to do is work largest to smallest and break down what I see as a possible count …. remember three simple rules:
1. Wave 3 can never be the smallest / 2. Wave 2 cannot go below/above the beginning of Wave 1 / 3. Wave 4 can’t overlap end of wave 1. That’s pretty much it …
So … here ya go. Expect a top followed by a pretty big correction and then one more new high…? Stay tuned ….
Rock on, always’
B
the Big Picture Counta small subdivision/fractal of the Big Picture
What do we know about Silver ….? Well, for starts it was supposedly found in 5000 BC , has a melting point of 1,763 F and it’s atomic number is 47. Also, it sure has followed an ORDERLY, MATHEMATICAL and rather PRECISE PATTERN for the past couple years. I don’t know a darn thing about the fundamentals of silver … I do know it goes UP when there are more buyers and DOWN when there are more sellers. I like to tell people I’m an “Intermarket Musician” in that the only thing I do w/ regards to equities, FX, fixed income and commodities (I like to call them the circle of life) is look for PATTERNS in price and time based on sacred geometry and music. I draw pictures w/ crayons …
So, I have fielded a TON of questions about SILVER and also just watched another financial SILVER commercial and thought, “well, since JC convinced me to blog, perhaps I should post the moves in SILVER and the POTENTIAL move to come and a relatively SAFE and RISK CONTROLLED opportunity to buy ….”
I apologize in advance if the charts get too technical (again, it is BartsCharts) but it’s what I’ve trained my eye to see and since I have NEVER taken an economy or business course it’s this language that I pay attention.
Silver pulling back EXACTLY the same amount as the mirror image from 1980
The charts above show the “center point” for a foldback pattern … foldbacks are powerful in that “as above, so below” / “ying yang” / “black white” they will come into a point and leave a point in the same fractal. Note, the center points and the blue arrows pointing to the corresponding “node” which is balancing the move. Bottom line, at key nodes on the foldback you can find different techniques to get LONG and UP UP and away ….kaboom, hugh?
Chart shows it all …
Chart above shows the POTENTIAL move coming …
HEIGHT of the MOVE can equal the length of the base … as the move is in full affect, I was starting to shift my mindset to taking profits for clients. Bottom line is like the $AAPL chart (potentially $MA), parabolic and emotionally fueled rallies will be taken out, very powerfully. So, targets are being found and discussed. However, remember the left side of the chart “a “blow off” spike could occur” KABOOM …..
Silver had finished it’s very PRECISE and ORDERLY pattern … the red arrows in the lower image are showing one more potential target around 51, but overall, the run had completed. Note the top chart … 3.1412 was used a bunch, musical notes were used and PLEASE NOTE a top at a natural square 7*7. Interesting …hugh?
Yes, your seeing some Elliott Wave counts. On a longer term basis, the wave patterns appear pretty harmonious so I’m sticking w/ them. My issue is IF the top at 49 was a big wave 3 or wave 5. Right now, I’m favoring it was a wave 3 top and we are correcting A-B-C in 4 w/ a 5 and new high to come. Here’s that picture:
Homebuilder’s Index has “recovered” nicely, as has everything, from the 2007-2009 timeframe. That being said, we have a very symmetrical and orderly pattern that has recently completed on the weekly timeframe. Additionally, take a look at the daily timeframe – the classic head and shoulders pattern pops right out at you. Stay tuned, but perhaps the big bad wolf is about to pounce and blow the house down? Or, not ….
Weekly Chart showing resistanceDaily Chart showing head and shoulders
A very good and long time friend of mine has the unique opportunity to work in the intelligence community. From time to time, we meet at $SBUX and just sit and watch the people move in/out of the store w/ their 5$ coffee’s. He always remarks how $SBUX “is not the real world” and that his office is the real world. True or not, I do consider this company a contrarian indicator. The market, in my world, is the sum of the vibrational energy of the masses. And, if the masses are still willing to pay outrageous prices for their fix then, the market is simply not ready to go down. This chart has me extremely interested …lot’s of geometry equals lots of resistance. Take a peak ….
Let’s revisit and then ask where do we go from here….the charts below are the basic geometry that we learned in elementary school on drawing arcs and connecting three points to form a circle. Also, some log-counts and a host of “other” geometry went into looking for the 700 ish to be important. (All of these charts are real time w/ no “could have, would have, should have)
From here, we all know what happened. How about now? Note, a strong rally has occurred, however it is in the same PATTERN (inverted) that occurred in 2008. the market exploded in late 2008. Is the same, except inverted, going to happen at current levels? Again, stay tuned ….
Let’s revisit fixed income, as it is getting, rightly so, some significant exposure……
As you can see, we got “lucky” on our pattern at the top in/around the 153 level. One thing I was seeing and now I’m simply putting it out there is this count might not be complete. When we look at the long term chart we can see that we are at an extreme in price and time for corrections in this 30 year BULL MARKET and, going down to a weekly chart, we can see an orderly pullback in a “a”-“b”-“c” corrective move. Perhaps a little lower and then, believe it or not, a potential rally to slight new highs ….? Call me crazy but calling it like I see it. At a minimum, this move is very oversold so a bounce in/around here is a real potential. Stay tuned …..
One of my favorite pastimes is to look at everything in the context of the circle of life – fixed income, equities, commodities and FX. By far the largest and most liquid, the FX market is the real “elephant in the corner” and drives a significant share of the moves we see w/in the entire trading universe.
Attached is the dollar index and a possible count showing the high at 84.76 finishing a 5 wave sequence. The “a” “b” “c” correction unfolding is, still, a bullish correction and one that should find support in the 78.72-80.15 region. The key w/ this chart is the blue “measured move” correction w/ regards to time. Technically, we still have to next week where time and price would be equal. That level is 79.34. Additionally, once we have completed this 5 wave sequence, the corrective move is usually down to the beginning of the 4th wave of a lesser degree.
The only issue that I can see w/ this count is the extended third wave (green). One of the rules of Elliott is wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1 and you can see w/in the fractal of the wave 3 (green) we do have some slight overlap of 4 and 1 (white). In the FX world, I consider this negligible and the subsequent 5 wave rally is orderly and nice.
Last point – I’m seeing the top in/around the 84.76 area as 1 of 5 to come ….stay tuned, if this count is correct the dollar will take off.
