Author: BART

Since it’s top in November 2007, the POUND has followed a nice script. It’s been extremely hard, I can imagine, for long term trend systems because it’s been stuck, I believe, in a multi-year triangle. As you can see from the charts, if this analysis is correct, then new lows below 1.3500 will be a reality. What I believe might have just completed is a 6+ month expanded flat correction, which appears to be the top of wave 2. I have not entered, yet. Am waiting for some confirmation and a lower time frame pattern to appear to allow me to manage risk. Please see the charts below and let me know if you have any questions.

Quickly, I’m wondering if it’s OK to say  “I’m really not sure.”  A case for one more low move on Silver was shown last week and, in part 1 we discussed how the gold/silver index certainly looks like a nice bottom has been carved.  As you can see, I am trying to post the “past moves” to show how we are able to use these moves to try and paint a “yellow brick road” to follow … the only issues w/ our yellow brick road right now is Gold might have put in a good low while silver hasn’t…that divergence leads me to I’m not sure.  What would I like to see happen …?  Well, as a dollar bull, I would like to see the metals make one more move lower and then we’ll at least have an idea of the path (or a better one — nothing is certain) that they have decided to take.  When I say metals I mean Gold and Silver for now. This week I will catch us up on the march up and down of copper and palladium, followed by oil.

Take a look, a case can be made for either and that’s the beauty of the markets … it’s all probability and the ability to manage risk and deploy capital …since I am a little cloudly on the count I’ll give you a quote  “it’s always better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market and wishing you were out…”

Lastly,  I would like to take the time to personally thank Mike Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) for everything he has taught me and continues to teach me …and, of course, my true friend and wonderful man, Larry Pesavento (www.tradingtutor.com)  He has helped me in so many ways beyond trading ….two amazing men.

Here are the charts …and, just to show you some “music” I am putting a musical gold chart in …. note how the “gravity center” and the last “note” of octave 2 were on top of each other …coincidence?  Yes, a complete coincidence because the fundamentals had everything to do w/ it …. or not.

$LNKD on a great run … no doubt.

However, certainly appears some stiff resistance is overhead.  Wait for a signal reversal candle/bar (weekly) for confirmation that we are at/near a top.

Notably, w/ IPO’s , it’s tough to count the initial move.  In this case, an ASSUMPTION is made that the first correction from 122 – 56 is a 2 and then we go in a very strong and powerful wave 3.  It’s “easy” to see 5 waves and w/ this much thrust/momentum I am inclined to say this is a 3 w/ a 4 to come and then another buy after a correction.  The major corrections have lasted almost a year 1-2 and (1)-(2).  The minor corrections (3)-(4) are a good 6 months long so caveat emptor is warranted from “now” to perhaps another 5-10% higher ….

Have a great weekend.

and, as always, rock on!

Bart

PS — might be interesting to watch 261.80 and 271.82

Here’s an update to the AMZN charts below …while I still feel this count is correct, we did make another high.  Therefore, new targets calculated.  I like to call the following chart, below, “musical polarity.”  As you can see, the blue arrow to the left is the “rock hitting the water” and it causes the “waves.”  In this case we try to align price and time to PROJECT areas of support and resistance.  We use the past support/resistance and time components to project potential inflection points.

Note how the first arc down EXACTLY nails the low in TIME ….I then use the next points in price to project using 1.1892 (musical note C of equal octave scale) and 2.0 which is the “next octave.  as you can see they were important points in TIME and PRICE.  The 3 o’clock position on the arcs are timing components.  All this tells us is that we have a “good arc” or “good splash of the rock.”

Now my eye is turned to the yellow highlighed area in/around 2007-2008.  Note, by expanding the initial arc by 2.618 (fibonacci) and 2.71828 (natural log) we have arcs that EXACTLY gravitate price to them and the timing of the low is precise.  Again, all that tells us is that we have a good arc.  Now, we project all the way up to the top of the circle and now we have a target zone.  one of the targets was hit Friday and we’ll see if the upper is hit around 329.  We have NOT been given a signal reversal candle so the trend is still alive ….again, I like the count so I’m now “looking” for targets to adjust/confirm targets.

Still believe and looking for a TOP in AMZN to come ….

The waves in AMZN ($AMZN) have been extremely harmonic and, quite powerful to the upside.  I’ve included a set of charts that are mean to show you the “subdivisions” that lead to, as my best, subjective, viewpoint can produce.  Elliott Wave is hard and you either “see it” or you don’t.  What most people do is count and use it as their only technical method.  I never use it alone and, usually, only count when I have some very strong targets that have appeared ….

So, as you walk thru the charts, what I’m trying to do is work largest to smallest and break down what I see as a possible count …. remember three simple rules:

1.  Wave 3 can never be the smallest / 2. Wave 2 cannot go below/above the beginning of Wave 1 / 3. Wave 4 can’t overlap end of wave 1.  That’s pretty much it …

So … here ya go.  Expect a top followed by a pretty big correction and then one more new high…?  Stay tuned ….

Rock on, always’

B