And I’ll Huff and I’ll Puff and I’ll Blow Your House Down

Homebuilder’s Index has “recovered” nicely, as has everything, from the 2007-2009 timeframe. That being said, we have a very symmetrical and orderly pattern that has recently completed on the weekly timeframe. Additionally, take a look at the daily timeframe – the classic head and shoulders pattern pops right out at you. Stay tuned, but perhaps the big bad wolf is about to pounce and blow the house down? Or, not ….

Weekly Chart showing resistance
Weekly Chart showing resistance
Daily Chart showing head and shoulders
Daily Chart showing head and shoulders

SBUX and the land of “not real”

A very good and long time friend of mine has the unique opportunity to work in the intelligence community. From time to time, we meet at $SBUX and just sit and watch the people move in/out of the store w/ their 5$ coffee’s. He always remarks how $SBUX “is not the real world” and that his office is the real world. True or not, I do consider this company a contrarian indicator. The market, in my world, is the sum of the vibrational energy of the masses. And, if the masses are still willing to pay outrageous prices for their fix then, the market is simply not ready to go down. This chart has me extremely interested …lot’s of geometry equals lots of resistance. Take a peak ….SBUX Monthly

Sir Issac Newton and $AAPL Fell From the Tree

Had another opportunity to post for JC on $AAPL.  Please see: 

Let’s revisit and then ask where do we go from here….the charts below are the basic geometry that we learned in elementary school on drawing arcs and connecting three points to form a circle.  Also, some log-counts and a host of “other” geometry went into looking for the 700 ish to be important.  (All of these charts are real time w/ no “could have, would have, should have)SEPT 18 2012 AAPL1SEPT 18 2012 AAPL2SEPT 18 2012 AAPL3SEPT 18 2012 AAPL

From here, we all know what happened.  How about now?  Note, a strong rally has occurred, however it is in the same PATTERN (inverted) that occurred in 2008.  the market exploded in late 2008.  Is the same, except inverted, going to happen at current levels? Again, stay tuned ….Main20130820144713Main20130820150116

Fixed Income Revisited

First off, I would like to thank JC Parets of for finally pushing me to start blogging … “JC, thanks….”

JC gave me the unique opportunity to “guest post” on his blog site a couple times and one of my earliest posts was the following: 

Let’s revisit fixed income, as it is getting, rightly so, some significant exposure……

As you can see, we got “lucky” on our pattern at the top in/around the 153 level.  One thing I was seeing and now I’m simply putting it out there is this count might not be complete.  When we look at the long term chart we can see that we are at an extreme in price and time for corrections in this 30 year BULL MARKET and, going down to a weekly chart, we can see an orderly pullback in a “a”-“b”-“c” corrective move. Perhaps a little lower and then, believe it or not, a potential rally to slight new highs ….?  Call me crazy but calling it like I see it.  At a minimum, this move is very oversold so a bounce in/around here is a real potential.  Stay tuned …..

30 year continuous contract
30 year continuous contractMain20130820141459


the USD Index

One of my favorite pastimes is to look at everything in the context of the circle of life – fixed income, equities, commodities and FX.  By far the largest and most liquid, the FX market is the real “elephant in the corner”  and drives a significant share of the moves we see w/in the entire trading universe.  

Attached is the dollar index and a possible count showing the high at 84.76 finishing a 5 wave sequence. The “a” “b” “c” correction unfolding is, still, a bullish correction and one that should find support in the 78.72-80.15 region. The key w/ this chart is the blue “measured move” correction w/ regards to time.  Technically, we still have to next week where time and price would be equal. That level is 79.34. Additionally, once we have completed this 5 wave sequence, the corrective move is usually down to the beginning of the 4th wave of a lesser degree. 

The only issue that I can see w/ this count is the extended third wave (green). One of the rules of Elliott is wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1 and you can see w/in the fractal of the wave 3 (green) we do have some slight overlap of 4 and 1 (white).  In the FX world,  I consider this negligible and the subsequent 5 wave rally is orderly and nice.

Last point – I’m seeing the top in/around the 84.76 area as 1 of 5 to come ….stay tuned, if this count is correct the dollar will take off.  

August 20 2013 US Dollar

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