Good as Gold Part 1 of 2

After the Silver post the inquiries regarding Gold have flooded in … so, in part 1 we’ll take a look at the Gold/Silver Index. The $XAU is the Philidelphia Gold/Silver Index and consists of 16 precious metal mining companies.  This index and the $BUGS are the two most watched precious metal indices in the world.  The index and the spot prices of Gold and Silver have moved in sync, nicely at the low in 2008 and mostly on the way up and down.  The interesting aspect to look at is the lag in the spot gold price once the index had reached it’s target …this is what I’m looking at for a reference point. As you can see, the recent low in/around 82 was a very strong harmonic target and fits nicely into a potential big low for the index.  However, when we show spot Gold in part 2 we have the potential (which would fit nicely into our preferred sequence of events) for the Spot Gold to turn in/around here for one more low.  I would like to see the $XAU consolidate/pause/bounce around the recent lows while gold finishes one final leg before beginning a POTENTIALLY explosive BULL MOVE.  Stay tuned and enjoy the charts … again, know nothing about the fundamentals of the Gold metal or the 16 companies just following the bouncing ball of patterns that can make very nice entries to manage risk possible.

Will update the Spot Gold chart later this afternoon or tomorrow … back to mowing the grass.

note, the forecasted pattern held for a potential major top. this was during the parabolic runs of gold and silver
note, the forecasted pattern held for a potential major top. this was during the parabolic runs of gold and silver
As the move was underway AND the metals had topped, this became a very nice target to watch
As the move was underway AND the metals had topped, this became a very nice target to watch
the count, as we continue to see weakness in metals.... (the POTENTIAL count)
the count, as we continue to see weakness in metals…. (the POTENTIAL count)
Here comes the target
Here comes the target
Note, at the level approached targets are furiously calculated/confirmed for potential support
Note, at the level approached targets are furiously calculated/confirmed for potential support
Some more geometry but the index is giving us a potential signal that this is it ...
Some more geometry but the index is giving us a potential signal that this is it …
Note the synchronicity and also the delay as the index waited for the parabolic run to end
Note the synchronicity and also the delay as the index waited for the parabolic run to end
A potential count .... potential being the operative word
A potential count …. potential being the operative word

 

 

Missing a $LNKD in the chain?

$LNKD on a great run … no doubt.

However, certainly appears some stiff resistance is overhead.  Wait for a signal reversal candle/bar (weekly) for confirmation that we are at/near a top.

Notably, w/ IPO’s , it’s tough to count the initial move.  In this case, an ASSUMPTION is made that the first correction from 122 – 56 is a 2 and then we go in a very strong and powerful wave 3.  It’s “easy” to see 5 waves and w/ this much thrust/momentum I am inclined to say this is a 3 w/ a 4 to come and then another buy after a correction.  The major corrections have lasted almost a year 1-2 and (1)-(2).  The minor corrections (3)-(4) are a good 6 months long so caveat emptor is warranted from “now” to perhaps another 5-10% higher ….

Have a great weekend.

and, as always, rock on!

Bart

PS — might be interesting to watch 261.80 and 271.82

Nearing a TOP, caveat emptor
Nearing a TOP, caveat emptor

 

Surf’s Up (or down) AMAZON ($AMZN)

Here’s an update to the AMZN charts below …while I still feel this count is correct, we did make another high.  Therefore, new targets calculated.  I like to call the following chart, below, “musical polarity.”  As you can see, the blue arrow to the left is the “rock hitting the water” and it causes the “waves.”  In this case we try to align price and time to PROJECT areas of support and resistance.  We use the past support/resistance and time components to project potential inflection points.

Note how the first arc down EXACTLY nails the low in TIME ….I then use the next points in price to project using 1.1892 (musical note C of equal octave scale) and 2.0 which is the “next octave.  as you can see they were important points in TIME and PRICE.  The 3 o’clock position on the arcs are timing components.  All this tells us is that we have a “good arc” or “good splash of the rock.”

Now my eye is turned to the yellow highlighed area in/around 2007-2008.  Note, by expanding the initial arc by 2.618 (fibonacci) and 2.71828 (natural log) we have arcs that EXACTLY gravitate price to them and the timing of the low is precise.  Again, all that tells us is that we have a good arc.  Now, we project all the way up to the top of the circle and now we have a target zone.  one of the targets was hit Friday and we’ll see if the upper is hit around 329.  We have NOT been given a signal reversal candle so the trend is still alive ….again, I like the count so I’m now “looking” for targets to adjust/confirm targets.

Still believe and looking for a TOP in AMZN to come ….

waves ....
waves ….

 

The waves in AMZN ($AMZN) have been extremely harmonic and, quite powerful to the upside.  I’ve included a set of charts that are mean to show you the “subdivisions” that lead to, as my best, subjective, viewpoint can produce.  Elliott Wave is hard and you either “see it” or you don’t.  What most people do is count and use it as their only technical method.  I never use it alone and, usually, only count when I have some very strong targets that have appeared ….

So, as you walk thru the charts, what I’m trying to do is work largest to smallest and break down what I see as a possible count …. remember three simple rules:

1.  Wave 3 can never be the smallest / 2. Wave 2 cannot go below/above the beginning of Wave 1 / 3. Wave 4 can’t overlap end of wave 1.  That’s pretty much it …

So … here ya go.  Expect a top followed by a pretty big correction and then one more new high…?  Stay tuned ….

Rock on, always’

B

the Big Picture Count
the Big Picture Count
a small subdivision/fractal of the Big Picture
a small subdivision/fractal of the Big Picture

the smallest subdivision of the Big Picture
the smallest subdivision of the Big Picture

The count w/out the lines
The count w/out the lines