BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets.
the All ordinaries never hit the target SELL pattern and this PATTERN is still valid. the zone of 5760-5835 is the key w/ the old realiable .786 retrace up at 6060 the highest it “should” go if the SELL PATTERN is valid. As you know we NEVER know which one works or doesn’t …
what makes this particularly relevant, in my HUMBLED opinion is it’s correlation to the AUDJPY and the VERY interesting PATTERN that is appearing w/ regards to the AUDJPY. For a review, here is the pattern on the All Ordinaries:
All Ordinaries SELL PATTERN
here’s the importance of the AUDJPY and the All Ordinaries …
AUD vs USD and All Ordinaries
so we have a SELL PATTERN on the All Ordinaries so that “should” cause the YEN to strengthen against the AUSSIE .. ONE PERCENT OPPOSITE OF THE INTERVENTION WHICH TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY! as you well know, I know NOTHING about the fundamentals behind this move. And I don’t care … but IF the All Ordinaries SELL works THEN historically speaking the PATTERNS and CHARTS tell us the YEN will strengthen against the Aussie …here’s the charts:
When looking at any security, I always try to look at cross market correlations (intermarket technical analysis I guess) to see if we can get correlations/confirmations. One of the more important correlations has been the price of Palladium and the AAPL stock and to another extent the NASDAQ. They are NOT perfectly correlated but they are dancing together enough (reference dancing w/ the stars) that when one inflects (up or down) the other usually follows. In this case, if you follow the charts below, you’ll see that we formed a nice pattern on Palladium that HIT and it tumbled more than 20%. Is Palladium now in a bear market — I DON’T KNOW nor DO I CARE. We’ll know something is “afoot at the circle K” based upon this next leg and what it decides to do. A count that makes sense is shown and the formation of B or 2 is where we need to just see what happens. Here’s what we can figure out …
IF (the BIG IF) this is a wave 2 then upon completion of the FLAT or EXTENDED FLAT Palladium will start back down.
Historically, this “should” cause pressure on AAPL.
IF (the same BIG IF as above) Palladium continues to rip higher then AAPL will continue ….
So, just sit back and enjoy this dance…if Palladium trips and falls down the probability that it’s partner (AAPL) won’t be too far behind is a distinct possiblity.
DISCLAIMER: can’t stand that show, OBTW but my 86 year old mother enjoys it. However, I do like the last word of the show – “stars” – for obvious reasons.
9/17/2014: this correlation is pretty strong and Palladium hit our target exactly and has been being liquidated heavily in the past month. Keep an eye on either 1) Palladium finding support to build momentum for a move higher in NASDAQ OR 2) drag the NASDAQ down w/ it. Let’s face it … ain’t NO WAY anything was going to get in the way of the Allibaba IPO. It’s going to be a crazy market as we see what happens w/ Scotland, we have a triple witch expiration, a reweighing and the largest IPO in history .. not to mention it’s been a FED week.
8/24/2014: : Palladium converging into to major resistance. This is important because it’s a nice little commodity to watch w/ regard to the NASDAQ and AAPL. In order to build the pattern we are going to to go step by step this morning into “why” Friday’s high was important from a PATTERN perspective.
1. First, here’s WEEKLY charts of 1) NASDAQ and Palladium and 2) AAPL and Palladium.
notice that when palladium broke out of the consolidating triangle, AAPL took off.
of late there has been a lead/lag relationship at times BUT the overall directional pivot is clear. As Palladium goes, so does NASDAQ and AAPL.
2. When constructing a PATTERN there are three things we do — PROJECT / EXTEND/ RETRACE. In order to keep this post brief I’ll do the basic stuff …
PROJECT: note in the two charts below we have 2 “basic” projections coming into the same area. That warns of resistance.
Palladium 1.618 Price Projection
EXTEND: note, we used the middle point at 593 for the extension pattern. Also, note 1.68179 nd 1.732 are used. musical note and the square root of 3 …
extension from 2008 (shaded light blue triangle)
RETRACE: from the all time high we have a .786 retracement. This is NOT a fibonacci number. Here’s the math- 1.618/square root is 1.27 and 1/1.27 = .786.
so … as you can see, we have a bunch of NUMBERS adding up to this being a big level for Palladium. And, while a case can be made that, since these are weekly/monthly nodes coming out, it SHOULD be a hefty amount of resistance. That being said, it could also BLOW RIGHT THRU EM’ and rip higher and higher. It’s just a pattern folks.
Last – the BUTTERFLY PATTERN is present. Connect two triangles together and that’s the butterfly pattern …
Butterfly SELL pattern
put it all together and here is the picture:
PATTERNS complete on Palladium …
here’s a potential count — note – 4 doesn’t CLOSE below 1 so I say “go for it” w/ regard to the count. Additionally, alternate targets provided at little higher. Sure seems like it wants to head up that way … ?
Palladium Count Potential
last thing we check is the “relative strength” using ratio analysis. in this case we have PALLADIUM / GOLD. When we overlay Gold on top of the ration there isn’t that big of a correlation. HOWEVER, when Palladium is overlaid (see below) we can see that this ratio is extremely important. And, what do we have on the ratio – a SELL PATTERN appearing, which, in the past, has caused Palladium to inflect. Stay tuned.
note, palladium prices overlaid and how the ratio is nicely synced w/ the highs and lows.ratio of XPD / XAU – note pattern completing a little higher
So, there you have it … watch this important relationship, closely next week.
I TRADE the spot currency market … as a CTA I deploy capital in the spot FX market.
I am hawking the EURO and, quite frankly, it’s at a crossroads. Why?
1) the BEARISH sentiment is at a MAJOR extreme … we have to take that into account.
2) I feel “pretty” confident on the count shown below. (1,2,3) There IS another move down …
3) the cross roads is – have we completed the a-b-c OR do we have one more leg up? I am in the camp of one more leg up simply because of TIME. the last correction took a month and we still have another week to go. all that being said, we need to hold in/around here to go back UP into my desired short area. the work for that short area is below …if we don’t rally from in/around here then it’s “probably” off to the races.
4) also, posted the EXACT low on the EURO via the square out technique here: http://www.seeitmarket.com/euro-time-price-square-call-bottom-13830/ the fact that we had the square out also tells me go higher.
guess we’ll just have to WAIT and see …rock on, ok?
below are a couple intraday charts of the “ratio” of XLP/SPX.
note, ALL the major inflections (even intraday) are equal/opposite the overall market.
so, where does that leave us? Well, you can see a minor buy pattern (two blue triangles) but I favor lower where the .618/.786 overlap. If/when this ratio hits that level I would be a seller of the SPX.
if you read this blog, then you’ll notice I’ve been pretty silent. why? well, this is all playing out to plan … MAJOR patterns completed and, well, they took a long time to form and work to be quite honest. But, read below the two horizontal lines and you’ll see the PATTERN was calling for major resistance basically right where the NYSE index hit.
of note, now, is that we completed a pretty easy 5 waves down so the rally which is happening now 1) is to be expected and 2) is just that – a rally. IF OUR COUNT is correct we are correction w/in a B wave and a C wave will follow. What is the ideal situation? Well, a rally up into the end of the year and then the next leg down? Why? In 1929, 1987 the market crashed 55 days after the TOP WAS ALREADY IN …
so, don’t get out your BULL HATS just yet … the pattern, if corrective A-B-C is not complete and we are working thru B OR the bearish implication is we just complete 1 and we have 2,3,4,5 to go.
relax, enjoy the fall weather and remember it’s always better to be OUT of the market wishing you were in than IN the market wishing you were out ..
rock on, ok?
Bart
NYSE INDEX
CLIFF NOTES: in November 2013 I posted that a .618 price projection was hitting in/around 10376 level. while it did cause a month of selling AND gave a monthly signal (go look at the chart) the market subsequently “recovered” and caused the pattern to fail. Now, we have “another” pattern completing as shown below. Patterns do fail. That’s been proven .. however, a majority of the time they WORK. So, watch the swing low (it’s a monthly) and keep your powder dry. Also, the musical note F# ratio of the equal octave scale is 1.68179. Just showing that a .68179 projection works also … it’s all music.
US Steel – X has gone back to the neckline. Anywhere in the zone of 27-21 should begin another advance. Am wrong if we get a daily close below the red trend line.
CLIFF NOTES: believe this breakout in X is real and it “should” come back down to highlighted areas for another BUY.
PCLN – 5 waves are complete and the first AB=CD appears at 1039. Then 988 as former resistance ….these levels are KEY to the continued bull run of PCLN. An amazing run … however, it’s not a far stretch to say that 5 waves are complete. If so … we should see 550 over the coming year.
PCLN … amazing advance but one that is at/nearing an end for now.
a clear wave structure is in place that makes this current move up equal to a 5 on declining volume. also, it’s parabolic so don’t get to overzealous and short up in here – however – take not of my TSLA post, AAPL posts, etc to see how amazing parabolic moves are to the UPSIDE and how they get balanced by moves to the downsides that are equal and opposite w/ intensity. In my lifetime, I have never seen a parabolic move that rock and rolls to extreme highs and then digests/distributes and pauses and then takes off again…they all crack, hard.
been blogging a BUNCH about the importance of the XLP / SPY ratio. Why? Well, EVERY turn since 2000 has been nearly exact to the ratio turning up or turning down. here’s the chart:
XLP / SPY ratio w/ S&P overlaid on top of it … NOTE divergence since 2012
folks, it doesn’t get much better than that … the CANDLES is the ratio of XLP / SPY. The BLUE LINE is the S&P 500. the chart time frame is monthly. EVERY PIVOT IN THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN A CORRESPONDING PIVOT EQUAL/OPPOSITE in the ratio. (move up in stocks equals move down in ratio and vice versa)
why is this important … well, check out the VIX and the ratio
XLP / SK&P w/ VIX overlaid on top of it
here’s the deal — RATIO ANALYSIS is a unique look into the key hole of the INSTITUTIONAL rotation … and, my take is the ratio should have been sreamcing down while the S&P ripped to new highs. IT DID NOT … that has been something I have tried to resolve for almost two years …
now, why is this low so important in the ratio? well, take a peak at the RSI BULLISH support zone below:
XLP/SPY ratio found support on bullish RSI zone
and, then you could have this as your count …
a POTENTIAL count for the XLP / S&P which shows higher
so, let’s review:
the CHARTS show
when the XLP/S&P 500 ratio pivots so does the market …
we had a very noticeable divergence in the ratio and the S&P 500 as the S&P 500 screamed to new highs
we have shown that the VIX pivots w/ the ratio
we have shown the ratio is at bullish RSI support zone …
all the above tells me 1) volatility is here to stay, 2) expect pressure on the equities and 3) I could and might be completely wrong and that’s OK!
WYNN is at crucial support. Note, the highlighted blue areas were former resistance and we have found support in/around 175 as expected.
I am showing the post below for a couple reasons:
NOTE, we tried in/around this area once the pattern had completed from the IPO. THE PATTERN FAILED … so, w/ sound money management a loss was taken.
After that, another alternate target was found w/ very nice price and time symmetry and it has worked.
WE DO NOT KNOW WHICH PATTERNS WILL WORK but WE DO KNOW THEY GIVE US AN EDGE!
Here’s a set of charts on WYNN that show the swings …
WYNN polarity
if we lose this level to the downside, then this is a big deal.
rock on, ok?
Bart
CLIFF NOTES:
the PATTERN from the IPO was crushed….
recent 3 month candles are HUGE!
the patterns shown are BEARISH.
FOR MY FELLOW CHART PEOPLE: the PATTERN in price was defeated, however, the PATTERN in time is MARCH. We’ll know…soon what will happen.
THESIS: IF WYNN keeps going HIGHER so will the stock market (bullish) HOWEVER, if people are BUYING a company that makes its living on speculation, tourism and “it didn’t happen here” Vegas — then isn’t it a contrarian indicator that this ENTIRE rally since 2009 is a house of cards? We will find out — soon.
WYNN “slaughtered” the PATTERN at/around 180 w/ a vengeance …. KABOOM!
Folks, it didn’t even whimper at a pattern that had it’s genesis from WYNN’s IPO …
So .. I asked myself, what the heck does WYNN do? Here’s the summary of the stock that people are buying:
“Wynn Resorts Ltd. develops, owns and operates destination casino resorts. The company operates through two segments: Las Vegas Operations and Macau Operations. The company provides hotel rooms and suites; table games; slot machines; a race and sports book; and a poker room of casino gaming space, including a sky casino and private gaming salons; casual and fine dining in food and beverage outlets; spas and salons; lounges; and boutiques. “
Full disclosure — I have stayed at the WYNN and, well, it’s amazing … if you get the chance, spend the extra bucks and do it. Well done, amazing service, first class! So, here’s the rub. WYNN, no matter how much net worth you have, is a choice and the last 3 months candles are the STRONGEST in the history of this stock. So, again, what am I missing? Sure doesn’t feel like the roaring 20’s right now or even the euphoria rolling into 2000.
Folks, this defies convention … when this puppy is hit by Sir Issac Newton, watch out below ….
