TBT – tricky

please see chart below … ultimately, it’s about risk control and how much risk one is willing to take.

our thesis is the 14-15 dollar low was a BIG low and we are very early in a multi-year (multi-decade (?)) rise in interest rates. yup, you just read that correctly …so to manage risk, one must understand that there is a potential that the trend has changed and we now have 3 different levels to enter …

here and now … GARTLEY 222 pattern complete at the low however, a nice gap down warns of lower prices. gaps into a level beg of caution …

19.14-19.42 …realistic w/ that gap down and lands basically on the top of the channel w/ polarity in play.

18-18.50 .. a lot of ratios and polarity principle (red line) … that looks good.

so, if the low today was the low but you don’t like the gap down then WAIT for a daily/weekly CLOSE above 21.50 for confirmation and BUY or if you do not think the low was today then WAIT for the two levels below.

either way, risk is basically in the 16-17 former cluster or the low at 14.28. that’s the true support zones. the lower breaks then the entire thesis is 100% wrong.

Author: BART

BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets.

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