I like Ratio Analysis … I also like to work w/ the patterns on these charts.
If you have been reading my blog for a while, you know that I ‘try’ (the operative word) to not read, watch or listen to any ‘other’ financial news commentary. Yes, there are people that I follow and am very interested in what they see/say (most are the same as me) but I can tell you that NONE of the people I follow or read are fundamental analysts. Not that they don’t do good work (they do) I’m just not smart enough to understand the information they put out. For me – it’s much easier to use crayons, some geometry and PRICE and TIME and PATTERNS to try to manage risk. The ‘why’ and the ‘blah blah’, again to me, is just noise.
so ratio analysis:
X/Y – if the chart goes up then X is stronger.
X/Y – if the chart goes down then Y is stronger.
X = XLK (technology = risk on) the Y = XLP (staples = risk off)
XLK/XLP – going up w/ strength. the big guys (institutions) aren’t showing a ‘risk off’ mindset. the XLK/XLP ratio move up is the LARGEST SINCE THE LOW OF 2002.
So, for me, while we might shuck and jive and perry left, perry right until we have a monthly bearish signal reversal candle I can’t join the camp of the sky is falling and all that jazz.
Bart
