1/2/2018- after the failure of the measured move target, we came up with some additional targets. it certainly appears we have TWO 3-drives to a top patterns coming together w/ very nice time symmetry. not to sound the alarm here BUT this has the makings of a very important and large top for the Utility sector.
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08/24/2017 – hard to believe it’s been a YEAR since I last posted on the Utilities … at the time, as you can see below, the DJ Utilities Average was about to equal it’s measured move (the blue arrows) along w/ hitting a 3 drive monthly pattern at the 2nd drives 1.618 expansion target. The market DID REACT but not in the manner expected. While this number did stop the market in it’s tracks, we have ultimately blown thru this pattern and it has now failed. Folks, that is a big deal … monthly patterns like this are USUALLY (the operative word) walls of china for support or resistance.
So, as long as the Utilities are continuing higher … rates ain’t budging in my mind.
You can also see below some ‘future’ targets to consider.
Wow, that was an epic failure of a monthly pattern …
Bart
August 7, 2016 – are the Utilities cracking? Historically, they have NEVER gone farther than the measured moves shown from the post 6/6/2016. Stay tuned. the point we are trying to make here is that when these blue measured moves are present AND a perfect 1.618 extension is present THEN the Utes have correct either 46 or 60 percent. here’s the question – are you ready for THAT? watch the close on Friday for more weakness coming confirmation.
Bart
6/06/2016 – were rolling right up into the target zone w/ monthly bearish divergence. yes, I still think this is a big deal and begs of caution … in 26,854 days Utilities have never gone farther w/out a major correction. Questions?
going to show this chart again of the Utilities … watch closely, the upper target is pretty darn close. Since the low in the 1940’s the Utilities have never gone farther than this (or close to this – still some upper targets) w/out a major pullback.
in theory TLT would be rolling over also….?
Mark, thanks for visiting the site. In theory YES that is correct BUT I’ve found that they are not 1:1 and don’t necessarily ‘have’ to move together … but historically weak utilities have meant stronger rates and therefore rollover of TLT should be expected in the future IF this is as big a pattern as I think it is .. also, note the TBT trend line breakout attempts in the coming days/weeks … be well and hope this helps Bart