I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
Study:
- this ETF doesn’t want to go below 27. Big support …
- also, note the AB-CD projection down to 25.40 – if we crack from here expect support there and if BULLISH this will hold and bring it to new highs. If it fails … watch out below.
- THOSE are the levels to watch …
- sure looks like a MONTHLY H&S pattern for this ETF … doesn’t it?
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
Bart
