The Aussie has been correcting for a while and, folks, the move down from 1.100 ish certainly appears to be corrective. What does that mean? We are “at” or “near the beginning of a multi year advance that will take out the high July 2011. Here’s the monthly picture …
TILT … everyone is talking about US Dollar strength – yes, but they are talking about the dollar index which the Aussie isn’t even a part of it. Or if it is the weight is negligible so in this case we have to take this pair as a single entity – not a weighted index.
here’s the weekly:
note the 3 waves down … that is the key. it was not a 5 wave movement. has this correction been complex – yes. But it’s falling right in line w/ a double three labeled w,x,y.
and, the daily, shown below, just completed 5 waves down. While it would be perfect symmetrical three drives to a bottom is we go down and attack 8400 – there is a good case to be made that a low is in place. we’ll have to wait for an intraday pattern to appear …
and finally, we’ll see the move down on a 60 minute chart is a clearly defined 5 waves.
so … there ya have it.
what to do? Well, our thesis is we are beginning a multi year move to take out the old highs from 2011. IF THAT IS CORRECT THEN WE ARE IN the first stages of the advance. the first move up (wave 1) will complete and then wave 2 will come and, more than likely, w/ a vengeance because everyone thinks the “old trend” is in play. That’s the BUYING OPPORTUNITY and price should never go below the low that was formed last week.
stay tuned …get ready to rumble.
Bart
