Month: November 2013
IWM what a perfect set-up
the “zone” of 113-120 should be very strong if not the “top” for a while … if this pattern fails, I’m going into gardening.
Great British Pound – again
if your a new reader, check out the below posts on the continuing saga of trying to get short the GBP vs USD:
http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/12/the-great-british-pound/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/18/the-great-british-pound-update/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/30/great-british-pound-update-iii-and-pumpkin-soup/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/22/the-pound-gorillas-and-juggling-dynamite/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/29/pound-negative-reversal-potential-long-term-chart/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/31/halloween-pound-update/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/11/02/great-british-pound-continues/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/11/05/jec-silver-past-fractals-and-the-pound/
http://bartscharts.com/2013/11/12/pound-foldback-updated/
so, where do we sit now? below you will find a daily chart of the GBP vs USD and, well, nothing has really changed. let’s focus on a couple things:
- the target we had “hoped” for is, quite frankly, still out there and rest at 1.6330. it is conceivable for one more push into that short zone.
- the analysis of a multi year triangle completing (big blue 4) is still alive.
- the move from 4 (big blue) down to the 1 (green) represents 1 0f 5 in a 5th wave decline that “should” take out the 2009 lows.
- most recent price action is viewed as a 2nd wave correction in a-b-c fashion. the 1.618*a = c level is at 1.6297 (never hit)
- here’s the most important part – the 2 month consolidation is either is 1) corrective and an advance to our long standing target will occur OR 2) the most recent high yesterday is “it” and we start down. I don’t know which is which but I do see a more favorable foldback than the one originally presented on 11/05.
the foldback can be seen here …
here is the 4 hour chart w/ a little more granularity …
will be trying to get short (again) on this potentially MAJOR move … our risk will be anything “closing” on a 4 hour – daily basis above our long term target OR above the 4 (big blue one). at that point I will ERASE everything an go back to the drawing board…
rock on, ok?
B
put the needle on the record, put the needle on the BROKEN record – caveat emptor
apologize for falling off the blog bandwagon early this week…got smacked like a brick in the face w/ a stomach bug. just resurfaced … actually got some emails from you asking where the posts are…thanks! since my record appears to be broken, thought I would add some thoughts from 50+ years of trading…each of these men are friends and mentors of mine …
Larry Pesavento (www.tradingtutor.com) put out a chart on the Shiller P/E ratio but actually added some “other” criteria to the chart in the following manner:
- Shiller P/E anything > 18 (current is 25+)
- S&P 500 at a 5 year high
- S&P 500 at least &% above 40 weeks smoothing
- Bulls > 50%, Bears < 20% (Investors Intelligence)
- Prior Instances of this happening: 1972/1987/2007
- note – in 2000 bears never fell below 2000
- note – this happened in 1929 on imputed sentiment
the most recent clusters have been in May 2013 / Aug 2013/Nov 2013 …. why hasn’t the market gone down, just a bit? Well here’s why …
mentor/friend Mike Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) recently explained the amazing run in these terms:
“The FED buying of treasury bonds actually spills into the area of the FED buying stocks because indirectly they are. The ‘banks’ like Goldman Sachs now can borrow billions from the FED at a fraction of a percent and buy an ETF basket of stocks with 2% dividends and sell futures short as the hedge and also sell puts and calls to make up the spread difference arbitraging a good profit on the FED loan. This has had the effect of ratcheting up the market with each new buy program. The proof that this is at work is the fact that the biggest correction seen so far took place in late June when the S&P futures were expiring and in a downtrend and the September contract was at too steep a discount to roll out profitably so they had to liquidate some long baskets. This will happen again either in December or March and then there could be hundreds of billions of baskets unwinding just like the portfolio insurance of 1987. The big institutions learned in 2008 that no matter what the ‘valuation’ of a stock was, it could go to almost zero if a large enough seller was out there. They won’t wait around this time and they’ll create a ‘flash crash’ getting out…”
I’ll just leave you w/ two charts …one is the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) and the continued march of the DJ Transports …
it’s coming folks … keep riding this wave but when you get smashed into the coral at the end of the break, hope you brought a breathing apparatus. What a great run it’s been…
one last, man, I hope I am 100% complete wrong ….
Silver following the script part III
for a view of Part 1 and Part II of “Silver following the script” please see the following: http://bartscharts.com/2013/11/08/silver-following-the-script-part-ii/ this will take you to Part II and inside of Part II is a link to Part I.
Summary: key level is 19-60-19.80 on spot silver. IF that gives away, THEN an move into the 13-14 region is a real possibility.
John Deere and … copper?
JPM beautiful sell pattern
TWITTER update … sell pattern worked, to the cent …
this was the real time post from last week: http://bartscharts.com/2013/11/14/twtr-first-sell-pattern-coming-into-play/
Salesforce ($CRM) 1,2,3,4,5 and that’s all she wrote …
“Ladies and Gentleman, this is your Captain, please fasten your seat belts for this expected turbulence”
on 10/23/2013 we wrote “turbulence ahead for Boeing…” – http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/23/turbulence-ahead-for-boeing-ba/
today, the target was hit … stand by, and, PLEASE fasten your seat belts:
